Public statements from spokesmen like Rutte always have a purpose.

There is a dreariness to this message - but take a step back. What are Russia and Ukraine's theories of victory at this point. This is a war of conquest for Russia - what they sit on now isn't worth what they have sacrificed. Russia's war plan right now is two parts:

    1. Infantry infiltration/infestation
    1. Stand-off Terror bombing
    1. Repeat until Ukraine gives you something to make it stop

That's not a great plan. Two big problems:

#1 might work for infiltration, but it doesn't work as an occupation strategy. Occupation troops don't live in blasted puddles of rainwater and charred concrete rubble. They live in barracks and conquered territory needs to be peaceful enough to merit economic activity.

#2 has never been successful in history at achieving strategic goals. Ask the americans how it's going in Iran right now with a war of long range bombardment. Russia wants regime change and conquest of enough territory to justify what they've lost. Well...they want more than that, but even THEY seem to finally understand that ain't happening. Even the strategic bombing campaigns of WW2 - the most succesful in world history - still required huge armies grinding right into the very center German capital to end the war. Hell - in Japan's case, they had to use atomic weapons.

Russia's war plans can't possibly work for their strategic objectives. Highly unlikely their enabler China would allow the nuke threshold to be crossed. It's also unlikely nukes would make Ukraine stop fighting - this is alredy a war of annihilation for them. If Russia used nukes, you would see radiological weapons and suicide bombers all over Moscow in about 48 hours. Nobody wants that, and you don't nuke territory you claim belongs to you anyways. Enough about nukes - this war is a venn diagram of the intersection Russian brutalist hubris and sunk cost fallacy for Putin. But what about Ukraine's strategy?

Tactically, Ukraine's theory of victory is to defend hard points viciously, maximize russian casualties to make progress as painful as possible. When necessary, they fall back to the next prepared lines and continuously harass all aspects of the Russian lines with drones, artillery and opportunistic counter-assaults. In short - trading small slices of land for maximal russian blood. This will continue as long as Ukraine can man positions and deploy drones.

Strategically, Ukraine's theory of victory is to survive as a viable, sovriegn state with the means to defend itself and some reliable security guarantees. Ukraine does not have to eject Russia from the occupied territories now to win. It just has to make it impossible for the Russians to stay.

One of these sides' plans is better than the other.

There will be a post-Putin power struggle, which will create instablity in Russia and possibly opportunities to regain Crimean and Donbas territory without having to fight bloody battles for them. Ukraine is suffering, and they deserve a just victory, but is a bad peace that lets Putin, Trump and their black hearted stooges regain power in 5-10 years worth it? How does Ukraine actually secure long term peace? It may be in the long run better to bleed the russian war machine until it dies instead of letting them off the hook for the fatal mistake they've made. Easy for me to say at a keyboard, I understand. But Ukrainians are smart and know Russia's predatory nature. I don't know what they'll do, but I'm sure they know they can't trust Russia going forward.

In short - Rutte is telling the Russians here that they have to negotiate and compromise. Peace is an ugly process. Just like sausage - you don't want to see how it's made.

you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] 2 points 14 hours ago (3 children)

Like, a HISTORIC mistake.

Absolutely, this could result in the Russian federation falling apart completely. Traditionally there were good reasons for the regions to remain with Russia, with the regions supplying resources, and the federation supplying skilled workers, economy and "safety".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia

The Russian federation is a massive collection of regions of different culture and ethnicity. There are lots of regions that could quickly focus on their traditional nationality with national borders, that can split away from the Russian federation.
Even the poor regions leaving will weaken Russia, as that is where Russia is getting most of their soldiers.

Some cities in the east are already controlled by China, and some only survive because of imported North Korean workers.
So the structure is already now not as robust as it was before the war, and the economy of the regions is collapsing even faster than the federal economy, because the federal government is bleeding the regions to support the federal budget.

Also this war will have detrimental economic effect on Russia for decades. There will be little help, and traditionally they never were very good at it themselves, in part because of incompetence, and in part because of corruption. And I don't expect they will receive a lot of outside help, unless they reform to a real democracy.

Further, I think Russia is undergoing a Loooooooong collapse. Like the Ottoman Empire did

Absolutely, and you could consider the fall of Soviet Union as the first part of that collapse. And this part will be even worse. When the Soviet Union collapsed there was actual hunger in the population among for instance pensioners that didn't receive pensions. This will very likely happen again. It may even already be happening. Allegedly you can't live off a pension alone with the inflation there has been, and pensions have not increased, because the budgets are too strained for it. Compared to that, the Ukrainian economy is doing way better.

Russia should be rich and prosperous.

Exactly, if Putin had chosen democracy and peace with Europe, and worked on cooperating instead of trying to undermine us, Russia could very likely have been the most significant economy in Europe, surpassing even Germany. Instead Putin wanted "his" empire back. And chose to fight with everybody around him he made huge profits on?! They could also have served as a huge trade middleman between Europe and China. The possibilities were enormous, but now 30 years of progress has been wasted instead!

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments
  • [–] [S] 3 points 13 hours ago (2 children)

    I think 1905-1917 was the first chapter of the Russian empire collapse, 1991 the second, and we’re speed running to the third.

  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments