"People, understandably, are having trouble believing in the polls," Nate Silver acknowledged to New York Times columnist Ezra Klein.

The post Nate Silver Suggests ‘Momentous’ Midterms Might Mark ‘the End of the Trump Era’ first appeared on Mediaite.

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[–] 28 points 1 week ago (3 children)

He gave Trump 2016 more odds than anyone else, the model probability was 1/3 chance, up to polling issues.

All Nate Silver’s models did was run a hierarchical Bayesian regression model with polls weighted by demographics and their forecast accuracy on previous elections.

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  • [–] 29 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago) (2 children)

    Yeah this is just a horrible take. 538 was the only one I remember actively cautioning that a Trump win was possible and a 20% chance means you win one in five times you run the election. People who say they were notoriously wrong, frankly, weren't paying attention.

    EDIT to correct typo.

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