"People, understandably, are having trouble believing in the polls," Nate Silver acknowledged to New York Times columnist Ezra Klein.

The post Nate Silver Suggests ‘Momentous’ Midterms Might Mark ‘the End of the Trump Era’ first appeared on Mediaite.

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[–] 61 points 2 weeks ago (6 children)

Man there is nothing we love more than counting our chickens before they hatch, huh?

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  • [–] 23 points 2 weeks ago (5 children)

    Strong polls encourage people to vote. Weak polls discourage participation and donations.

    https://time.com/article/2026/10/23/what-fake-wedgewood-polls-scandal-reveals-about-election-polling/

    Just this year - Michigan primary - one campaign says their donations plummeted when fake polls claimed they were far behind.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 week ago

    My local ads have reverted to the shaming tactic - "your vote is private, but anyone can look up whether you voted or not". From my dad who's been working the early voting location for my county, it sure sounds like they've had one hell of a turnout.

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  • [–] 5 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

    And yet I keep seeing people on Lemmy say that polls being good discourages people from voting

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  • [–] 12 points 1 week ago* (2 children)

    Don't listen to polls, don't let people keep you from voting to improve things, don't put it off...

    VOTE!!!

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  • [–] 8 points 2 weeks ago

    I voted, you should go vote too.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 week ago

    Fuck hope. Get angry and vote.

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  • [–] 17 points 2 weeks ago (4 children)

    Ah yes famously reliable Nate Silver lol

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  • [–] 28 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

    He gave Trump 2016 more odds than anyone else, the model probability was 1/3 chance, up to polling issues.

    All Nate Silver’s models did was run a hierarchical Bayesian regression model with polls weighted by demographics and their forecast accuracy on previous elections.

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  • [–] 29 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (2 children)

    Yeah this is just a horrible take. 538 was the only one I remember actively cautioning that a Trump win was possible and a 20% chance means you win one in five times you run the election. People who say they were notoriously wrong, frankly, weren't paying attention.

    EDIT to correct typo.

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  • [–] 9 points 2 weeks ago (1 child)

    Shut up and Nate and fuck Ezra Klein.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 week ago

    oh are we listening to him again? i aint buying any of that copium again.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 week ago

    I'd like to point out that in an interview where Nate Silver came out looking like an arrogant ass, he predicted Trump would lose the last election.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 week ago*

    “People, understandably, are having trouble believing in the polls,” Nate Silver acknowledged

    Especially Nate Silver's interpretation of them.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 week ago

    If so, I hope the media constantly and always mentions this, if not in the title, above the fold, in all articles related to donnie for the rest of his term.

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  • [+] -17 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

    ha oh is the coin flipping on the uniparty! that must mean theyre going to switch to the rainbow colored genocide bombs instead soon. "democracy"

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