83
2026 Senate Elections Megathread! (lemmy.world)
submitted 2 weeks ago by to c/politics@lemmy.world
75 comments fedilink hide all child comments
 

Today is Tuesday, 10/20 and the general US Elections are in TWO WEEKS.

As it stands right now, the current Senate composition is:
47 - Democrats
51 - Republicans
2 - Independents

Looking at the numbers, we COULD see a huge shift in the Senate this year, best case scenario would be:

52 - Democrats
45 - Republicans
3 - Independents

1ST DEMOCRATIC FLIP - NC
2ND DEMOCRATIC FLIP - SC
3RD DEMOCRATIC FLIP - TX
4TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - OH
5TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - KS
6TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - IA
7TH DEMOCRATIC FLIP - ME

El-Sayed wins MI, hold, not a flip!

Alaska - 74% Reporting - D+0.29 (637 votes!)
(Dan Sullivan^1 47.88%
Dan Sullivan^2 1.68%)
Mississippi - 96% Reporting - D+0.18 (1,724 votes!)

Chart Follows:

State Current Occupant Status D Cand R Cand Polling 10/18 Outcome Polling Direction
Colorado Democratic Hickenlooper Safe D John Hickelooper Mark Baisley Called D
Delaware Democratic Coons Safe D Chris Coons Michael Katz Called D
Georgia Democratic Ossoff Safe D Jon Ossoff Mike Collins Called D
Illnois Democratic Durbin Safe D Juliana Stratton Don Tracy Called D
Massachusetts Democratic Markey Safe D Ed Markey John Deaton Called D
New Hampshire Democratic Shaheen Safe D Chris Pappas John E. Sununu Called D
New Jersey Democratic Booker Safe D Cory Booker Justin Murphy Called D
New Mexico Democratic Luja Safe D Ben Ray Luján Larry Marker Called D
Oregon Democratic Merkley Safe D Jeff Merkley David Brock Smith Called D
Rhode Island Democratic Reed Safe D Jack Reed Raymond McKay Called D
Virginia Democratic Warner Safe D Mark Warner Bert Mizusawa Called D
Minnesota Democratic Smith D Peggy Flanagan Michele Tafoya Called D
North Carolina Republican Tillis D Roy Cooper Michael Whatley D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 6/1
Alabama Republican Tuberville Safe R Everett Wess Barry Moore Called R
Arkansas Republican Cotton Safe R Hallie Shoffner Tom Cotton Called R
Florida Republican Moody Safe R Angie Nixon Ashley Moody Called R
Idaho Republican Risch Safe R Withdrawn Jim Risch Called R
Kentucky Republican McConnell Safe R Charles Booker Andy Barr Called R
Louisiana Republican Cassidy Safe R Jamie Davis Julia Letlow Called R
Mississippi Republican Hyde-Smith Safe R Cindy Hyde-Smith Scott Colom R+9
Montana Republican Daines Safe R Alani Bankhead Kurt Alme Called R
Nebraska Republican Ricketts Safe R Dan Osborn (I) Pete Ricketts Called R R Momentum since 10/1
Oklahoma Republican Armstrong Safe R N'Kiyla Thomas Kevin Hern Called R
South Dakota Republican Rounds Safe R Brian Bengs Mike Rounds Called R
Tennessee Republican Hagerty Safe R Marquita Bradshaw Bill Hagerty Called R
West Virginia Republican Capito Safe R Rachel Fetty Anderson Shelley Moore Capito Called R
Wyoming Republican Lummis Safe R James Byrd Harriet Hageman Called R
South Carolina Republican Graham R Annie Andrews Darline Graham D FLIP R Momentum since 8/29
Alaska Republican Sullivan Tossup Mary Peltola Dan Sullivan D+3 Possible D Flip D Momentum since 8/4
Iowa Republican Ernst Tossup Josh Turek Ashley Hinson D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 9/10
Kansas Republican Marshall Tossup Adam Hamilton Roger Marshall D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 10/1
Maine Republican Collins Tossup Troy Jackson Susan Collins COLLINS CONCEDES Possible D Flip D Momentum since 7/6
Michigan Democratic Peters Tossup Abdul El-Sayed Mike Rogers Called D Possible R Flip D Momentum since 8/17
Ohio Republican Husted Tossup Sherrod Brown Jon Husted D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 6/2
Texas Republican Cornyn Tossup James Talarico Ken Paxton D FLIP Possible D Flip D Momentum since 6/1

all 75 comments

sorted by: hot top controversial new old
[–] 24 points 2 weeks ago (1 child)

Voted in my tossup race yesterday; in person. This is the easy part; the cleanup we have waiting will take decades.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
    • [–] 13 points 4 days ago* (9 children)

    FiftyPlusOne claiming that Democrats have 80% chance of winning the senate, with the top probabilities being Democrats with 53, 52, 54, 51, or 55 seats. After 55 comes 50 seats (aka: Republican win after JD Vance's tiebreaker vote).

    I dunno what has changed in the past weeks, but we've gone from ~52 seats "best case" for Democrats to ~53 seats "average case" and 55 seats "best case".

    I consider 51 seats to be a loss btw. Remember that we have to deal with the traitor Democrat: John Fetterman, which is -1 effective vote for Democrats and +1 effective vote for Republicans. 52 seats are needed to beat 48 Republicans + a traitor vote + JD Vance tiebreaker.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 9 child comments
    •
  • [–] 9 points 3 days ago* (3 children)

    I consider 51 seats to be a loss btw. Remember that we have to deal with the traitor Democrat: John Fetterman, which is -1 effective vote for Democrats and +1 effective vote for Republicans. 52 seats are needed to beat 48 Republicans + a traitor vote + JD Vance tiebreaker.

    If it's 51/49, Fetterman is definitely permanently switching parties and giving both the tiebreaker to Vance and control of the Senate to the GOP.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments
    •
  • [–] 4 points 3 days ago (2 children)

    Dems have already flipped 6 seats in the Senate alone.

    And it looks like Republicans might lose a couple to independents.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 2 points 2 days ago (4 children)

    Do you think we have enough to impeach and remove now, you think?

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 4 child comments
    •
  • [–] 4 points 2 days ago* (3 children)

    Maybe Hegseth. The Iran war is clearly very unpopular and Trump is likely looking for a scapegoat. If Trump can be led to believe that sacrificing Hegseth is for Trump's benefit, we can start with that.

    Going for Trump directly seems like a political mistake. There's a lot of good we can do by going for some easier impeachments first. And with some smarts, we can play the Republicans against each other and weaken them before we move in for something bigger.

    Besides, removing Trump only puts JD Vance in charge. Its a lot of effort and high risk, without a big gain. Removal of Hegseth on the other hand is likely the best path we have towards making peace with Iran, no joke.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments
    •
  • [–] 2 points 2 days ago (2 children)

    Honestly, he’s purged the pentagon so badly that whoever takes over for Hegseth is still going to rubber-stamp whatever he asks for. I say we finally impeach and remove Trump and let the chips fall where they may. Some republicans may even save face by voting to convict.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 1 point 2 days ago (1 child)

    Attacking the easier targets would build momentum and also capitalize upon the Republican infighting.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
  • [–] 1 point 2 days ago

    Maybe so. I just don’t want the public to think it’s the only thing we’re here to do. Let’s get the big thing out of the way and then get on with governing and preventing these mistakes from ever happening again.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
    • [–] 11 points 3 days ago (4 children)

    IT'S BEEN CALLED BY AP!

    Dems took back the Senate!

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 4 child comments
    •
  • [–] 3 points 3 days ago (1 child)

    Great! I'm waiting for Michigan and Mississippi now.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
  • [–] 4 points 2 days ago

    Holy shit, I didn't even notice ol Mississip. It was looking red all night but I just checked after you pointed it out. Colom is up by 28 votes with 97% ballots counted so far...

    That is the definition of neck-and-neck.

    And yeah Michigan is the main reason I'm still up right now (that and the House!). It's been tight all night but El-Sayed has been edging ahead for the past hour or so! 76% of the count is in so far

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
    • [–] 11 points 3 days ago (1 child)

    I sure do hate my state of Florida. They choose the worse outcomes everytime rewarding a woman who literally stole from them weak af.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
  • [–] 10 points 3 days ago

    To be fair, there is a lot of cheating going on down there. They're changing election locations last minute and then not posting clearly where the new ones are. I'm sure there are many more fucked up things going down.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
    • [–] [S] 11 points 3 days ago (3 children)

    COLLINS CONCEDES!!!

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 3 child comments
    •
    • [–] 11 points 2 weeks ago (7 children)

    I've started using FiftyPlusOne for polling aggregation. It's a spiritual successor to 538, but if anyone has a better option, glad to be informed:

    https://fiftyplusone.news/

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 7 child comments
    •
  • [–] 7 points 2 weeks ago (5 children)

    I've been using Pollsmax. It's pretty good. Of course after every election I am reminded that there will always be surprises and I need to stop treating these sites as if they were a crystal ball

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 5 child comments
    •
  • [–] 6 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (4 children)

    Very interesting, thanks. Boy, the difference between their polling and forecast is pretty stark. They are giving huge incumbency advantages to existing GOP senate seats, for example. Polling is D53-R47, and forecast is D48-R52, a 5-seat chamber control swing.

    I don't know if that makes them more or less credible. GOP has outperformed in the past, and I'm very wary of vibes-based expectations, but Maine for example has Collins winning despite (1) their own average polling showing Jackson up by 2.7%, and three of four recent polls by 4%; (2) the last Senate seat going democratic; (3) the last presidential election going democratic; (4) the last governorship going democratic.

    Makes it it feel like their forecasting formula is putting a pretty big thumb on the scale, but then again, every time I've allowed myself optimism in the last 10 years of elections, I've been disappointed.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 4 child comments
    •
  • [–] [S] 3 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

    I was hearing about a South Carolina poll today predicting that 30% of the black vote is going to Darline Graham, which just seems absurd to me...

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 4 points 2 weeks ago

    Yeah, that would be something.

    I think the forecasts are useful thought experiments, but it seems if you dig deep enough in the methodologies, eventually you always get to a priori premises and assumptions that can't be supported except by intuition. It would be helpful for there to be a graphic map of those methodologies with "here be dragons" to denote when we've stopped using data. In any case, I'm holding onto some hope for this election despite those forecasts, but guarding it like a caveman would a fire.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • [–] 4 points 3 days ago

    It’s a spiritual successor to 538, but if anyone has a better option, glad to be informed:

    I would argue that the actual successor to 538 is Nate Silver's substack. You know, the guy who founded 538: https://www.natesilver.net/
    There is also Galen Druke's podcast/substack, where he continues the spirit of the 538 podcast directly: https://www.gdpolitics.com/
    And then there is the Still Counting podcast which might as well be titled "The 538 podcast, but ABC still owns that name, so we called it something else": https://www.youtube.com/@StillCountingPodcast

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
    • [–] 9 points 2 days ago* (1 child)

    Lol they might lose the Mississippi Senate race. Fucking MISSISSIPPI. That plus Georgia and Texas? Holy shit the GOP fucked up badly. 😂

    Mississippi was marked "Safe R" with a 9 point margin, which was even more "safe" for them than Texas. That is absolutely insane.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
    • [–] 8 points 3 days ago

    NPR reports that Democrat Roy Cooper has won North Carolina's open U.S. Senate seat, a flip.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
    •
    [–] 8 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

    Stella Parton, sister to Dolly, is claiming her voting machines changed her vote from Democrat to Republican more than three times in Nashville. Triple check your vote on machines and make sure a poll worker knows and get a copy that it registered

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 3 child comments
    •
  • [–] [S] 6 points 2 weeks ago (2 children)

    That's happened before on touch screen voting machines. It happens by either intentionally or accidentally mis-calibrating the touch screen.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 9 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 child)

    I get that but it's now being reported in multiple states and they are having to press multiple times to get it fixed. If even 2% of voters don't notice this. It's game over.

    Plus they just charged Virginia's senator with corruption. 82 years old. This is going to be rigged

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
  • [–] [S] 4 points 2 weeks ago

    Yeah, that's how the miscalibration "works".

    When you calibrate a touch screen, it will ask you to touch certain points on the screen.

    ❌

    Now, if you fail to touch the X, and instead touch somewhere off to the right, or underneath it, the screen will treat all subsequent touches in the wrong location.

    Super easy to foul a touch screen like that and the only way to fix it is re-run the calibration, which could be tricky if you need the touchscreen to enter calibration mode.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
    • [–] 7 points 2 weeks ago

    I need a drink.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
    •
    [–] 7 points 3 days ago

    Fuck ya, they got rid of Susan Collins.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
    •
    [–] [S] 7 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

    HOLY SHIT!

    MISSISSIPPI - Democrat is up by 28 votes. TWENTY EIGHT.

    48.95% D
    48.94% R

    97% Reporting with Cindy Hyde-Smith as the Republican.

    Watching NBC:

    There are 2 big counties to watch:

    4100 votes left in a county leaning Democratic +60
    4200 votes left in a county leaning Republican +3

    So if he gets +60% of 4100 and +47% of 4200...

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
    • [–] [S] 5 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (2 children)

    El-Sayed is giving a victory speech but the race has not yet been called by the AP or anyone else...

    51.8% to 46.2%.

    Rogers told his supporters to go home.

    Edit Race called for El-Sayed!

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
    • [–] 5 points 3 days ago* (1 child)

    President Trump would like to offer his input on the results tonight.

    I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

    I think he knows he's fucked.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
    • [–] 4 points 3 days ago (1 child)

    I am so confused on Nebraska. I've seen Osborn leading Ricketts and now I'm seeing ricketts is safe. And I have no idea on gov

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
    • [–] 4 points 3 days ago (2 children)

    I’m in Michigan and I’m really nervous about the senate race. They’ve been predicting it’ll be close but I’m still on the edge of my seat about it. And Detroit takes forever to count their ballots

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
  • [–] 4 points 3 days ago*

    With the rest of results, I'm confident that El-Sayed has it, but also nervous because elections and disappointment are pretty much inseparable to me after the last ten years. I'm suspicious things have been going so well.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
    • [–] 4 points 3 days ago (1 child)

    apnews showing 52. Anyone know what changed? I still only count 6 flips

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
    • [–] 4 points 2 days ago

    I sense a disturbance in the Force.

    Thousands of Goppers going, "They won't take Mississippi. They won't FUCKING take it. FUCK!"

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
    •
    [–] 4 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (1 child)

    I look forward to Trump looking at these numbers and saying “they’re not mad at me, they’re mad at the republicans who aren’t me”

    Edit: per the economist

    22:37 EST | Mr Trump has responded to tonight’s results for the first time, writing on social media: “I wasn’t on the Ballot and if I was, we would have won IN A LANDSLIDE!” He had repeatedly encouraged voters to “pretend I’m on the ballot” ahead of election day. On Monday the White House touted the president’s “relentless” 20-state midterm campaign tour.

    Lololol

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
    • [–] 3 points 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) (2 children)

    Young Americans. Don't forget tonight. Don't ever forget what the last two years of evil that was allowed free reign in the USA and across the world.

    Also. I didn't hear a peep about Idaho this cycle, and even they're going Independent?!?!? (Early results showed 47% I 40% R it's no longer). Like yeah they are a bumfuck redneck state but even the guy they're sending actually might support Bernie-style efforts to defeat anticompetitice oligarchies, billionaires, and might pass wealth taxes on them for deficit reasons...

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
    • [–] 2 points 2 days ago

    Woo!

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
    •
    [–] 4 points 2 weeks ago (1 child)

    82 year old Virginia senator Louise Lucas was just charged with public corruption involved with a cannabis company she owns.

    They aren't even attempting to hide the fox. It's in and I don't even voting enmasse is going to save us. Along with the Parton story of machines switching votes already

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 1 child comment
    •
    • [–] -5 points 1 week ago (9 children)

    Until Dems start running on a platform more radical than "We're not Trump" any landslide is all for naught and we'll just be in the same spot two years from now.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • hideshow 9 child comments
    •
  • [–] 9 points 3 days ago (8 children)

    Soo... You'd rather Trump keeps unchecked power then?

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 8 child comments
    •
  • [–] 6 points 3 days ago (7 children)

    I’m not the poster but have similar reticence to thinking a blue wave will fix things. It’s orders of magnitudes better if Trump doesnt have the stamp of of approval and I hope for a monumental blue wave. But I don’t much faith in the DNC as an organization to do much more than play defense, which again is much better, but could also easily lead to more frustration that drives people back to the GOP in 28 without meaningful progress on key issues that desperately need addressing

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 7 child comments
    •
  • [–] [S] 2 points 3 days ago (5 children)

    Best case scenario:

    Democrats shitcan the filibuster, pass a fuckton of legislation in the next 2 years, let Trump veto all of it, and in 28 run on "Here's what could have been without Republicans."

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 5 child comments
    •
  • [–] 2 points 2 days ago (3 children)

    Also prevent Ted Cruz from becoming a supreme court justice.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 3 child comments
    •
  • [–] [S] 1 point 2 days ago (2 children)

    Trump could insist on pushing him through before January while they still have control, just need Alito or Thomas (or both) to step down.

  • permalink
  • fedilink
  • source
  • parent
  • hideshow 2 child comments
    •
    • load more comments (-1 replies)