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[–] 185 points 3 months ago (28 children)

'Sharp acceleration' meaning 75% faster warming in the last decade compared to the 40 years previous, and blowing past the 1.5° target in 3-4 years. No speculation was given, but I think it's likely we're seeing the limits of oceanic absorption of co2 and heat. The ocean's latent heat capacity has flattened the curve for more than a century, and it's very hard to predict when that will run out, but sea surface temperatures spiking all over have been good evidence that we have passed a major tipping point in the last few years.

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  • [–] 63 points 3 months ago* (9 children)

    They also banned sulphur oxide in ship fuel which would have had a cooling effect, that was hiding the full extent of the damage and is slowly dissipating

    Won’t be long until we start doing that again on purpose

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  • [–] 18 points 3 months ago (7 children)

    How great fixing pollution with more pollution.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (5 children)

    Actually it's kinda good news as it shows we can make direct impact to the climate. Just with a substance actually made for it.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago (4 children)

    Don't take it too seriously, there is an effect but it's not that large. And anyways, the change in maritime fuel standards happened in 2020, while this trend goes back to 2015. A geoengineering project is just going to cause more problems, we don't know nearly enough about how the world works, truly.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Geoengineering is the only thing that can really blunt this at this point...

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  • Delaying the collapse of civilization by changing the chemistry of the atmosphere further will only serve to hurt the entire ecosystem to allow a few more years of our planet-wide rape. Decarbonizing was the only hope for both human civilization and Earth to survive together. Our choice now is to accept that or possibly kill everything in desperation.

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  • [–] 28 points 3 months ago (16 children)

    I’ve read that the models used to predict the rate of change were too optimistic or an assumption about them was too conservative and thus not very realistic. Now we have data showing the models under-predicted the rate of change, so one argument is that we were already on this path since decades ago, we just didn’t model it right.

    In any case, we’re all fucked so who gives a shit anyway no?

    Is there a name for when we know what the right thing to do is but we keep not doing it?

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  • [–] 13 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    All of the climate models have adjustable parameters. We are still within the bounds of the worst case scenarios but scientists are always afraid to claim too much. An academic's reputation is a lot less recoverable than a pop star or politician in the sense that they, and their colleagues, actually take their words and predictions seriously. I don't want to completely dismiss the effect of lobbying and corruption toward the downplaying of global warming, but making smaller-than-necessary claims is a common sight in most academic fields.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago

    I think it's mostly in fields with exponential outcomes, which experiences the too conservative estimates.

    We as a species has a really hard time understanding exponential/accelerant movement, we expect the next decade to change as much as the previous one. Despite every decade has been changing more than the previous one did

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  • [–] 16 points 3 months ago (12 children)
  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago (9 children)

    No way in hell we're facing an extinction event. Unimaginable human suffering, probably, but humanity will persist.

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  • [–] 15 points 3 months ago (4 children)

    Isolated pockets in relatively protected areas. Global society won't survive it. Most of the places we grow food won't be able to grow food, that's already accelerating. Ocean acidification kills that food source. Blue ocean event accelerates runaway heating leading to massive hurricane force continental storms. Amoc shuts down and Europe ices over. Humanity may persist but civilization won't.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Vast current areas become arid but vast areas in Siberia and Canada become arable. Very bad but not extinction for humans. Likely extinction for many species though.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago

    We are driving 200 species extinct a day and that figure is increasing every year. Eventually we run out of nature and we go with it.

    The temperature on the planet has never in its history changed so abruptly, which means plants and animals don't have enough time to adapt.

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  • [–] 6 points 3 months ago

    We are adaptable creatures with command of technology. So we've got that going for us. We also have temperature limitations in which we can live, and so do our food sources. Then there's the issue of potable water.

    It really depends on how far we're pushed the planet's ecosphere. It could do like before (most recent is the PETM) and hover high, then eventually equalize back into something not the same as we had, but similar. It's done this before, albeit after millions of years. Or it could find a new equilibrium in another state, aka hothouse. Not Venus-like, as some media has spun it, but its own version of feedback to retain a lot more heat than now. Not great for anything that evolved in this climate.

    Fun fact: the PETM was the most recent heating event, 56 million years ago. Some species went extinct, others were able to adapt and survive as they evolved into smaller forms. The fun fact is that they adapted because the rate of heating change was over a large amount of time, many hundreds of thousands of years. Now look at us, a spike on the geological temperature graph in (looks at data) less than a 100 years (a few decades, really). So what kind of inertia does a more rapid acceleration usually give compared to a slower one? But hothouse Earth is just a speculation, just a guess. We don't know how far this will go.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago*

    Really depends on what happens with phytoplankton; if they can adapt well enough to survive the excessive heat. Some of them can but others are dying out. If we lose all of them, then everything that breaths oxygen is extremely fucked since they make ~70-80% of that oxygen. Then we only have plants and forests like the amazon to make O^2^ (and we all know how that ones going), and then we would also have to deal with the gasses produced by all the oceans on the face of the earth dying and everything in them rotting... if they're not par-boiled.

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  • [–] 255 points 3 months ago (11 children)

    I’m sure it has nothing to do with the billionaire pedophiles not giving a fuck.

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  • [–] 84 points 3 months ago (7 children)

    Of course not. It’s not enough people recycling their grocery bags.

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  • [–] 35 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    Not to say you shouldn’t recycle.

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  • [–] 46 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Of course not. But it does feel a little silly when there are town-sized data centres being built in every direction and billionaires are just “choosing” to break all laws. Meta’s got gas turbines running to power theirs and they just said they’re gonna do it for another year. Who’s gonna stop ‘em? Everyone is too busy working and trying to survive to stop them from pretty literally torching our futures and especially our children’s futures.

    Things will need to get pretty bad before we see any kind of justice or change of direction, I fear ☹️

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  • [–] 16 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    Unfortunately we’ve been duped, a lot of it sadly ends up in landfills.

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  • [–] 11 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Yeah, I've become something of a refuse-police everywhere I go.

    It pisses me off that you can just put whatever in the bin and it gets disappeared and you've done a great job caring for the planet.

    Most of it is just plain not recyclable. Never was. Some can theoretically be downcycled into expensive ugly park benches that no one wants so no one bothers to do that. Only PET can be "re" cycled, but plenty isn't.

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  • [–] 13 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Billionaires do give a fuck. They just don't give a fuck about anyone but themselves, and maybe close family/friends to some extent.

    If I were to hazard a guess I'd guess billionaires fall into 3 camps regarding climate change. Those that still don't believe in it or that their will be any consequences. They are probably in the minority of billionaires (I do believe most of them believe climate change is real at this point, but their unbridled greed won't allow them to admit it in public).

    Then you've got the billionaires who do believe in climate change split into 2 more camps. Those that are so old that they predict they won't live long enough to see the large scale consequences effect them, and thus don't care. Finally, those that are young, but believe they can save themselves, without having to help save the world. Those are the billionaires building underground bunkers and compounds. Planning to ride it out from their private utopias.

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  • [–] 87 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    We're all trying to find who did this

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  • [–] 21 points 3 months ago (4 children)

    "When after all, it was you and me".

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  • [–] 17 points 3 months ago

    We have had the technology to completely switch to sustainable energy for at least 20 years, but we haven’t because it wouldn’t be profitable to the capitalist class. This problem isn’t caused by us, it’s caused by them.

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  • [–] 71 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    Sadly we're now at the "I told you so" phase of global warming and much sooner than expected. Now it's a case of how bad are things going to get.

    We still haven't even peaked in terms of global emissions per year, let alone meaningfully reduced them. Then even after reducing from the peak, we really need to get to net 0, which seems impossible right now.

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  • [–] 31 points 3 months ago (5 children)

    I've been in spectator mode for a while now once I realized the trend. Act locally, know your neighbors, become as self-sufficient as you can. Not much else you can do that will have actual effect.

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  • [–] 13 points 3 months ago (4 children)

    That won't have any effect. That's precisely what the billionaires will come up with. Sort of individual peasant responsibility. We'll be the ones on a carbon allowance, collecting plastic bottles while they can just buy their carbon credits and burn even more private jet fuel. Congrats on playing right into it.

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  • [–] 28 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Like blaming the guy behind bars for not trying something to get out.

    I get it - don't give in, change the world, and hold those responsible accountable. All great goals. But without a plan to do so and leadership/infrastructure, you're just as bad as me saying to help oneself first. Maybe worse, since at least I'm doing something instead of victim blaming. If you want to rally the peasants to storm the castle, go ahead, but you aren't going to do that by blaming peasants who aren't doing it solo.

    I also get your point on shifting responsibility. I was there when recycling and the rest was marketed to us. That doesn't make recycling or its forgotten sisters reusing and repairing useless. It just shouldn't end there, and shouldn't be an excuse for other things we do as if there's some balancing of credits. So if being more self-sufficient is some playing into their scheme, well, at least it's less that they can control.

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  • [–] 8 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    100% with you mate, posting revolutionary hopium on Lemmy isn't doing anything. We have to affect what we can reasonably touch. It starts with talking to friends and neighbours, and making sure you have some security and certainty first.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago

    Yeah, seriously, the whole thing with generalizations in the face of suggested individual action is just so silly. We all know we need to hold billionaires/corporations accountable for their bullshit, energy subsides for fucking oil need to go away like yesterday, citizens United needs to be overturned by legislation, members of congress taking bribes from plastic and energy companies and making legislative decisions as a result need to straight up go to prison, etc. But wtf is the normal, everyday person actually gonna do about it? Call their representatives that may or may not listen because they're a partisan hack? Good one.

    The cliché of getting involved locally is the correct course of action. It's not throwing molotovs in DC, it's getting to know your local farmers and getting food from them instead of shipped around the globe five times at some supermarket owned by a giant corporation. Get more trees planted in your neighborhood. Start some butterfly sanctuaries. Start a movement to ban egregiously wasteful lawns in your municipality. Get a coalition of people who pay attention and can mob city hall if/when the city council tries to pull some bullshit deals about yet another fucking data center. Establish better water conservation with your neighbors. This is what the actual, real, legitimate revolution looks like. It doesn't start with "AND I TOOK OUT MY GUN AT THE GUBMINT!", it starts with "My neighbors and I started our own little kinda country. ¯_(ツ)_/¯"

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago

    Acting locally, means the people hired to handle private jets.. Can handle locally. I suppose if you're rich enough for a private jet, you can pay everyone enough to retire after 5 years. But I doubt they do, so go ahead mechanics. Do your part to keep planes grounded

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  • [–] 133 points 3 months ago (28 children)

    I just wish people would stop acting like I am a "Doomer" over this shit.

    Every year its record high summers and winters, tnado alley is moving, rain patterns are all fucked up, I am not even a professional and I can tell the extreme weather shifts from climate change are happening.

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  • [–] 56 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    I've tried having this same conversation with my mum multiple times and she keeps saying that there has been no meaningful increase in temperatures in her lifetime and I'm just thinking what are you talking about?! I just don't understand what they stand to lose by admitting that humans have demonstrably increased the global temperatures.

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  • [–] 23 points 3 months ago

    Some level of personal guilt for continuing to exist in a system where fossil fuels are burned on their behalf and we often need to burn them ourselves to live a nornal life because the alternatives may barely exist. For example see DEI bike lanes in the states and the banning of them in ontario in canada thus promoting more car use and discourage/making it more dangerous to bike.

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  • [–] 8 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    yeah, we didn't have fire season out here when i was growing up. we used to call it summer.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Europe somewhere? Like apparently Europe has California wildfires everywhere now. WTF.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago

    yeah those "california wildfires" didn't take over all of the pacific northwest for five months back when i was little. now they do. congratulations, Europe! all that coal and oil all y'all burned for your exclusive benefit, now you get the fires too!

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago

    I think it's sunk cost. It's too late for them to admit that they were wrong because now it's too late to do anything. And admitting they were wrong this whole time would mean that there was time to do something and they squandered it to the detriment of not only their own descendants, but for literally every human on the planet.

    Their ego will not allow it.

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  • [–] 31 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Remember that the fossil fuel industry knew what was going to happen in the 1970s and lied to governments around the world to ensure our future of maximal fossil fuel burning and damn the consequences came to pass.

    We have words for people who betray their country, we have words for people who betray their family, we even have words for people who betray the firm they work for every day, but we have no words for people who betray their entire species.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago

    On top of that, there are systemic problems that allow the situation to escalate out of control. Why should I do this expensive thing while everyone else gets the cheap option? This sort of thinking applies to governments, companies and individuals alike. Nobody wants to contribute to fixing the problem, because it’s expensive.

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  • [–] 11 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    My government will do nothing until most politicians dies in not one but multiple tornadoes hitting the parliament... in the same year..

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago (5 children)

    And then they would invest in better healthcare plans, and better security

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  • [–] 12 points 3 months ago (4 children)
  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    Why do they care about the Military Police?

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  • [–] 7 points 3 months ago*

    People aren’t good at long term thinking. They have a hard time conceptualizing that actions now affect the entire following century. Our actions build on each other a little at a time, and keep adding up to worse

    It urgent not because of what’s happening now, but what will continue to get worse. It’s urgent because we’re locking in climate change now

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  • [–] 6 points 3 months ago (6 children)

    Doomerism is giving up, not accepting the reality that things are bad and getting much worse.

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  • [–] 7 points 3 months ago (5 children)

    I mean, maybe, except we are way way way past the point where we can fix this. Very large numbers of humans, will die, likely in the next 20 years. From famine and fighting caused by mass migration from now unlivable areas.

    Given our response level when we had time and resources and somewhat willing to work governments, vs now, its going to be a very large percentage, probably 100% within 40-50 years as it spirals and gets worse more and more rapidly.

    People got all pissy during COVID when things became hard to get from shipping delays and they couldn't go out to eat. Wait until things become hard to get because those things can no longer be manufactured and they can't go out to eat because there is no food.

    But hey, enough Doomer talk. Fidja see, Elon Musk isna Trillionaire! Everything is booming! MONEY!

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    we are way way way past the point where we can fix this

    While it’s hard to make things better, it’s easy to make things worse. It can always get worse and giving up means it will

    It’s more important than ever to advocate for change. To do what you can, both personally and with whatever influence you have, either in your social circle or through your consumer practices, or voting.

    As a citizen of the US, we seem to be the main villain here. We are making some progress, maybe more than you’d think, but the denial, the politics, the spite and racism means we’re not getting as much done as we need to. A year ago we had corporations on board, we had half the stars on board, we had many major cities on board. Then we got run over by a giant coal rolling monument to excess that modern pickups are. Time to get up, dust ourselves off, and get things moving again

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Even if everyone on the planet agreed to go completely "green" or whatever, we are pretty much past the tipping point of no return I feel.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago*

    Depends on what you mean by tipping point and it’s an important distinction.

    You are right that we are not only stuck with climate change but have zoomed past the target that might have left reasonably adaptable changes. We’re leaving a real challenge for the next generation. But if that’s the result and civilization survives the resulting instability, the climate should recover for our great grandchildren.

    The bigger challenge is “tipping point”. I don’t know if that’s what you meant but there are a series of projected climatic tipping points that will not only make things markedly worse for humans but are permanent (on the scale of human civilization). I don’t believe we’re able to predict any with any accuracy but I recall a prediction that were already greater than 50% of having triggered at least one. These are things like AMOC collapse, melting of Greenland glaciers, melting west Antarctic ice shelf, etc

    We’ve seen in the news repeatedly this summer the Greenland ice sheet melting faster than ever, causing a slowdown of AMOC currents …. So they also build on each other and we don’t yet know whether/when the tipping point is locked in, when there’s no longer any hope of preventing it

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago* (1 child)

    You are really misreading what Im saying. Im not saying things should go on as usual. Im saying we need to fight to salvage what we can.

    Your last paragraph is especially misrepresenting my point.

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  • [–] 59 points 3 months ago

    But at least we made a bunch of grotesque genocidal pedophiles obscenely wealthy.

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  • [–] 50 points 3 months ago (4 children)

    I wonder if this have anything to do with moving quickly from "we must all limit our energy consumption" to "we must burn as much energy possible for no real purpose".

    I guess we'll never know /s

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  • [–] 31 points 3 months ago (2 children)
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