The winning horse, I'm sad to say, is not coming from Canada. Unless Rich's new lab disproves his bitter lesson, we are not in the race. Cohere is valued at $7B. Anthropic is expected to go public at $2T. Cohere can make a lot of money by focusing on strengths they have that are practical business applications, but there's a reason Anthropic's valuation is coming in at 285× Cohere. And, we don't have much else while the US has OpenAI, xAI, Google DeepMind, Meta and more, not to mention owning the hardware layer with Nvidia. It's not even close. Even if a lab taking a divergent approach achieves an incredible breakthrough, where do you think the capital to scale will come from? We don't have the depth of capital markets domestically to compete at the top end of this. It is a two horse race because there are only two horses with the combined frontier tech and capital to run the race.
And, wrt to the dotcom bubble, it popping didn’t stop the internet from being revolutionary and it didn’t stop the US tech from dominating the internet. We are very likely heading the same direction, but with China as a competitor this time and a more fragmented global market.