TranscriptTitle text: This is how you all fucking sound

[A smug tech bro wearing a sideways cap, watch, chain around his neck stands in front of a data center by a lake with dead fish. A smoke stack blows pollution into the air]

Tech bro: AI is already here, there’s no going back.

[A smug man in a suit with cigarette in hand stands in a restaurant while two disgruntled diners cough from the smoke]

Suit: Smoking indoors is already here, there’s no going back.

[A smug man in a top hat and suit stands in a factory with two sad and dirty children]

Hat: Child labor is already here, there’s no going back.

[A smug plantation owner stands in front of a field with with two angry slaves]

Plantation owner: The Atlantic Slave trade is already here, there’s no going back.

Still Vreni on Bluesky

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[–] 170 points 5 months ago (83 children)

Thats not how it works.

A better example would be "nuclear arms are already here, theres no going back"

Its not a capitalism thing, its an arms race thing.

Once one country starts making nukes you cant stop everyone from following suit to protect themselves.

Same goes for AI, once one country starts doing it, everyone else is gonna need to keep up so they dont lose the arms race.

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  • [–] 28 points 5 months ago* (7 children)

    Except 90% of what people talk about when they refer to AI is LLMs which have no direct military applications other than vague productivity boost claims. You could say the same thing about sending kids to the mines, “our society is more productive sending kids to dig out coal instead of playing. If we don’t send our kids to the mines China will and then we’ll really be behind”.

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  • [–] 8 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    ... no I am talking about actual AI as a field as a whole, not just LLMs...

    Yall forgetting about Boston dynamics or something?

    We got fuckin guns strapped to the back of autonomous robot dogs that can run at over 60 km/h

    We got autonomous drones with facial recognition that can fly through dense forests at 90 km/h+

    The fuck you think Im talking about lol...

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    Again that’s a use case with entirely speculative applications at best. It can “process info”, but the answers it gives from them could be hallucinated. So if it’s analyzing nuclear threats, what if it “hallucinates” one? This isn’t Comcast ticket support, the military can’t afford LLMs making up bad info.

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  • [–] 26 points 5 months ago (27 children)

    The AI "arms race" as you put it is absolutely capitalism at its core. Replace humans with shitty robots so they don't have to continue paying wages to actual humans. Its just the the first person that makes it work will be able to set the rules for the ones that follow. Getting paid for those rules and making further entrenched in capitalism.

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  • [–] 18 points 5 months ago (17 children)

    The frustrating part is that we could be on the precipice of an amazing time. We could be in a space where it makes sense to dump tons of resources into rapidly progressing automation because it would enable people to finally stop doing tedious labor.

    But a combination of our inability to demand collective ownership of these systems and a similar disdain for social welfare means the prospect is instead terrifying. We need to continue to allow people to work cash registers for well below livable wages because otherwise they’ll starve.

    There is an alternate reality where the end result of AI is that people are just free to live how they want, to socialize, to explore art and novel ideas within their passion, engage in social supports, etc. but instead we will continue to prop up the need for mind numbing and tedious labor out of a fear of homelessness because collectivism is scary and bad

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  • [–] 5 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    I think we may very well be on the precipice of the world you imagine, or something like it. But the old world dies hard and takes effort to abolish. We didn't get where we are because we were given what we have - we fought for it. I think we're seeing the beginning stages of people demanding that the benefits of AI and automation flow to them, rather than to just the elite. Won't be without pain, but I think we get there. Partly because we kind of have to. People get over their fear of socialism and collectivism really fast when they get desperate yet there's people making huge piles of money off the automation that stole their job. I can't say for sure what the future looks like, but I don't think we stay locked here forever. To think so is to look at the situation during the first gilded age and say nothing can change. Well, it did and we got the progressive age.

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  • [–] 4 points 5 months ago

    We have to make people work under threat of homelessness because if we didn't there is too great a risk they wouldn't work at all and that would eventually mean the collapse of society

    No, people want to work. Look at Wikipedia, SCP, Minecraft, all those job simulator games, Linux, the Fediverse. The drive to create something that benefits people is fundamental to the human experience.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago

    It will definitely not be a walk in the park, but the newest ships and landers as well as the tech is so much more than I had on the USS Ohio. The longest we went underwater was 3 months. It definitely wears on you, but you work so much that exhaustion keeps you from any serious cabin fever. This is also helped along by the fact that we keep the oxygen percentage on the sub a little lower than surface air to lower the risk of fires.

    To me, the biggest challenge won't be comfort, necessarily, but zero Gs and being able to hold off the deterioration of the body in hypotension. Humans can live in some pretty shitty conditions and space will necessitate them for now, but having the best view money can buy probably helps morale some.

    I think that humanity is on the cusp of its next big jump into a new era. The old ways of doing things are no longer working, and new paths to the future will have to be charted. We are still very much in the veery early days of space colonization, kind of like the build up to the mercury program back in the 50s.

    Tech is advancing so rapidly that even at 30, I've seen some technology I couldn't even dream of being real is now just in everyday use, so I remain hopeful about humans in space. Our drive to discover is so ingrained in to what we are that I see it as inevitable (if we don't destroy ourselves first) It is a compulsion that spread our species to the farthest reaches of our world and I have no reason to believe our world would be the last boundary.

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  • [–] 10 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    LLMs will never be able to be terminators. This is just an expensive exercise in futility.

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    I thought, LLMs would never become able to write code. And now, I use Claude Code as the always available senior on coke.
    LLMs have a reliability problem. If that gets solved somehow, they can actually drive a worker bot - or a terminator.

    And the big money pits also don't only do LLMs. Those just get all the press because they are usable by normal users right now. Of course, some of those money pits are just investor scams. It's a fully corrupted society after all.

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  • [–] 4 points 5 months ago

    The thing, western governments fear is AI-powered terminators. They want the tech first, so they can win the war when someone attacks them. That is the arms race part.

    I think you're right that this is what they are thinking, but they are being idiots.

    My bash script terminators will easily destroy any AI terminators.

    My bash scripts don't hallucinate, and aren't so bloated that they require an always-available link to a data center.

    What we call "AI" today is not remotely close to being a good combat-ready solution.

    The winners of any coming AI war won't win it with the bullshit slop-peddling tools being pushed by con artists, today.

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  • [–] 22 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    Once one country starts making nukes you cant stop everyone from following suit to protect themselves.

    Except we did stop. We ended nuclear testing. We downsized our arsenal. We never deployed the high yield, neutron bombs, or other "tactical" variants in subsequent wars. And neither did the French or the Russians or the Chinese. Or even the Israelis.

    Our nuclear program is derelict. It belongs in a museum. There's an outstanding question as to how many of the bombs currently in circulation are duds.

    Unlike with the F-35 or the Bradley Fighting Vehicle or the Predator Drone or even the Virginia class submarine, we're just not putting any more money into nuclear proliferation and improved first strike capabilities like we were 60 years ago.

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  • [–] 7 points 5 months ago

    Mutually Asssured Destruction is an easily technolngically achievable goal, that's why we don't see much development past that point. You only need to exterminate an enemy's population once.

    The lesson learned by the world, at this point, is that nukes are the only way to guarantee your country isn't invaded and that agreeing to unilateral nuclear disamament is downright idiotic. Expect more countries gettng nukes this century.

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  • [–] 52 points 5 months ago* (38 children)

    Yes, but at least at the end of the day you can use nukes to blow stuff up. Presumably your enemies.

    If your enemies win the generative AI "arms" race they can use it to, uh...

    ???

    (Yes, I am aware there are military/governmental applications for neural net learning technologies but they're the types of pattern recognition and signals analysis stuff we already do without needing to build a football stadium sized datacenter every 50 miles and burn the entire nation's GDP on electricity generation. Most of the other applications appear to revolve around a regime using it solely to shoot themselves in the foot, e.g. powering a fantasy army of likely to be highly defective murder robots or using it to propagandize at and spy upon their own population in order to ensure a ready supply of destabilizing internal dissent always exists.)

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  • [–] 15 points 5 months ago* (2 children)

    Whoever gets there first, makes basically everything else obsolete in an instant.

    TechBros repeat this constantly, but it just isn't true.

    Plenty of second-on-the-scene solutions have emerged as most popular, or most impactful.

    But Tech Bros need the fear of missing out (fear of arriving second) to justify huge investments with no worthwhile results.

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  • [–] 21 points 5 months ago (6 children)

    Nobody's making AGI anytime soon. LLMs do not have any of the baselines required for this. They're expensive predictive text algorithms, more or less the same ones used in mobile keyboards, but upscaled to an absurd degree. Anyone truly worried about other companies or nations developing AGI has no idea how our current "AI" works. You're never going to get there by building on them.

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  • [–] 6 points 5 months ago (2 children)

    It’s true to say an LLM in isolation isn’t going to become AGI, but it’s also looking very likely that an AGI will feature an LLM as a key component.

    Wheels are a key component of my car I guess.

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  • [–] 5 points 5 months ago

    LOL.

    In my "analogy" you just invented all of the actual complexity of the car in the same hand wavy way you claim AGI will just coalesce from the ether.

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  • [–] 5 points 5 months ago* (1 child)

    These orgs aren't so high on their own farts that they ignore this.

    You make some interesting points.

    But...the vast majority of corporate decision making for the last ten years is solid evidence that they are 100% high on their own farts.

    LLM is the bit that you can plug into the past century of computing developments to enable much greater autonomy.

    Interesting point. But the folks giving these things autonomy are mostly just creating huge messes, right now, and then claiming victory and taking a quick bow before the stage caves in.

    The places we do see success are where no human could be patient enough - which is the stuff computers were already better at, than us.

    As you point out, all that can be fixed.

    But it's all already not worth the money invested, before they build dozens more data centers in the hope that they can fix it. There's just massive amounts of magic thinking going on, by investors.

    I do agree with your point that there's probably somethings that are useful and some that are dangerous on the other side of this.

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  • [–] 23 points 5 months ago (11 children)

    LLMs are not the final state of AI

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  • [–] 60 points 5 months ago* (10 children)

    But LLMs are not the path to the final state of AI, either. And that's assuming only if — and this is a very big "if" — a true general artificial intelligence can even be created using traditional silicon computing methods in the first place. Blithely assuming that it can be is really rather asking past the sale.

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  • [–] 28 points 5 months ago (7 children)

    Yep, by design LLM cannot become 'inteligent', you can only make it more believable but it's still copying humans not really thinking by itself. No amount of development or money invested will change that, it's not a pokemon it won't just evolve into something different one day.

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  • [–] 34 points 5 months ago (4 children)

    And it's worth reiterating, the current crop of generative "AI" is incapable of producing anything new or novel. All it can do is reassemble existing strings, tokens, and patterns in slightly different ways. Innovation can never come from such a machine. That will have to come from a human.

    The current push is the notion that "hyperscaling," i.e. throwing even more hardware and space and power and money at the same concept, will magically make it something it isn't. Obviously that's not going to work. It'll allow grifters to make a ton of money over it, though!

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  • [–] 10 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    From TFA:

    The AI did not prove that its approach is the best anyone can do, though. In fact, mathematician Will Sawin has already improved upon the AI’s grid.

    OpenAI privately contacted Litt, Sawin, Gowers and a number of other mathematicians to verify the LLM’s proof. Together (and without the company’s direct involvement), they wrote up their individual takeaways. (No external experts have seen the AI’s original output, however—just an edited version of its train of thought.)

    What stood out, they said, was the AI’s preternatural patience and focus.

    ...

    “AIs have an edge: It’s not just that they can try all known methods,” says Jacob Tsimerman, a mathematician at the University of Toronto, who was not involved in the work but was part of the companion paper solicited by OpenAI. “They can play for longer and in more treacherous waters than mathematicians without getting overwhelmed.”

    ...

    The mathematical tools the AI used here are not novel, although their application in this domain appears to be. “The model did not invent something fundamentally new that nobody saw coming,” says Sébastien Bubeck, a mathematician leading OpenAI’s mathematical explorations. “It just executed like an amazing mathematician.”

    So, it's a monkeys-on-typewriters situation with the computer able to try and reject the hammering of who knows how many square pegs into round holes until it finally arrives at a workable conclusion, which a human has already bested. And we're not allowed to see its homework.

    This is categorically failing to set the world on fire, except possibly in the literal sense.

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  • [–] 3 points 5 months ago

    After 80 years of fruitless struggle by human mathematicians, a major geometry conjecture has at last been solved—via a straightforward query to a chatbot.

    There's value having tedious work done by AI so it can provide inspiration to real people, which is exactly what happened in this case.

    So, it's a monkeys-on-typewriters situation with the computer able to try and reject the hammering of who knows how many square pegs into round holes until it finally arrives at a workable conclusion, which a human has already bested.

    Gee, sounds like it's enabling people! The horror.

    This is categorically failing to set the world on fire,

    Things can be useful in the right context without setting the world on fire.

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  • [–] 5 points 5 months ago (10 children)

    They can use it to do a lot of things. AI is far from perfect and makes all sorts of weird mistakes, but so do people. Arguably there's substantially more value in training inexperienced humans to get better in their fields than in settling for AI as a cheap alternative that starts with a maybe slightly higher or similar but cheaper baseline, but that doesn't eliminate all value they create. You can make arguments about the long term benefits socially or for individual organizations that leverage AI, but spend a couple hours playing with Claude and it becomes extremely evident that they're not anything resembling useless.

    Even if we completely throw chat bots out the window, there are some instances of general utility for thinking models. This comic is making a moral argument that's more compelling, but arguing that they're actually totally useless doesn't really reflect reality

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  • [–] 22 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    As someone who's used Claude and most other big LLMs as part of my job, they're all absolutely useless. They don't have the capacity for thought or care, all they are is a word generation algorithm similar to Cleverbot. So you can't rely on them for useful information, you can't rely on them for remembering info you told them, half the time it feels like talking to a brick wall (because you essentially are), and their only actual value is to CEOs as something they can blame layoffs on, even when it's bullshit.

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  • [–] 3 points 5 months ago

    What do you use them for? I use them day to day for significant automation hooked into a rag tool and several custom mcp services. They are absolutely amazing but with some serious flaws that do require significant guard rails and human in the loop points.
    They are obviously over hyped and being used as an excuse by shitty CEOs but to call them useless is a mistake I think

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  • [–] 14 points 5 months ago (2 children)

    Laughable to call an LLM a thinking machine. It's glorified auto-complete built on stolen data. I work in the industry and the fact that any of this can impress anyone is fairly depressing to me.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago (2 children)

    If you'd like to take the next sentence into consideration and respond to the context of what I was actually saying there, feel free.

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  • [–] 1 point 5 months ago*

    100%

    There's definitely a ceo-driven tendency to insert AI anywhere and everywhere whether or not it actually is a reasonable application. What I'm saying is that there are also some reasonable applications. When people focus entirely on "AI useless!", they're fooling themselves every bit as much as the people who think it's suitable for every possible application. Their arguments are just as empty and vibes-based.

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  • [–] 15 points 5 months ago (3 children)

    Even before there was an atomic weapon, the utility, the effectiveness, of atomic weapons was never in doubt.

    "AI" isn't like that.

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  • [–] 6 points 5 months ago (2 children)

    pushes glasses up um actually the usefulness of AI has never been in doubt, we've been using it for years, what actually isn't like that is specificly generative AI.

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  • [–] 7 points 5 months ago (1 child)

    We've been calling the good stuff "machine learning" since forever, and we've overwhelmingly been calling the new generative stuff "AI," however inadvisable that may be. If we can just stop insisting that machine learning is AI, actually, we'll have no trouble of this kind. This is an unforced error, it's just muddying the waters for no benefit at all.

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  • [–] 3 points 5 months ago

    It would also apply to child labour and slavery. We may have outlawed it locally, but that doesn't change the fact that companies who make use of it will be at an advantage, so we just ended up outsourcing it.

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