The problem is that everyone always feels like it’s important “this time”, but all it really does is strengthen the centrists who end up giving the Conservatives material to work with. Every election is further reinforcement of that with a weakening of the party you really wanted. Your vote always counts and it is your civic duty to make sure it speaks for you or else the whole thing falls apart. Why do you think the Liberals were so against the voting reform they promised?
And as far as the NDP goes it’s insane how many excuses people will make to not vote for them. Just admit you don’t want to, I’d respect that more. The NDP used the coalition to force the Liberals to actually do a few useful things and genuinely seems to at least vaguely care about Canadians but everyone talks about “Charisma” as if Trudeau was really anything more than hot in that regard or as if Carney was anything more than an available Liberal.
Strategic voting is always a net-negative in the longterm and it’s incredibly hard to claw your way out of once you reinforce a two-party system in a FPTP setup. Do it anyway.