Yeah, it really is painfully obvious that the fatcats are trying to cash out on the bubble before it blows.

Has the S&P bent this rule before?

Lololololol the president of my company went full AI shithead recently and he posted how it was a big deal that they were going public and he was talking about how he see it as a great investment to purchase shares and I asked how it was a great investment to get shares of a company severely in the red and my comment got deleted in a few minutes

Edit: we also got claude code for everyone in the company and they are monitoring token use (as in we need to use a lot) and I asked if they were concerned that the token price would rise if the board of directors of anthropic suddenly wanted to make a profit and that comment also got deleted (this was in a virtual townhall so we can ask stuff, usually they just ignore the ones they don't want to answer but they were actually deleting them this time)

Sounds like they don't want to go along with these sham corporations and their smoke & mirrors accounting. It's like they want the companies in their index to be on sound financial footing or something.

While I love the sentiment; I'm reading this decision by S&P as just about not bending their rules. AI is not thriving fast/convincingly enough to break tradition of big finance; I don't think that makes S&P an ally. And I suspect this means they'll just be joining a bit later.

ngl if AI dies i hope we get more ethical models, open-weight models (mostly) solve this, but it would be cool if it was trained only on public domain.

Here's an even more interesting one:

It's the P/E ratio (the ration between the stock Price of a company and it's Earnings) of the Nasdaq vs the Price.

Notice how the Nasdaq price has tracked the P/E, with since at least 2020 the stock prices not increasing because company earnings are going up but rather just from increased speculation hence the rise in the ratio of stock Prices to Earnings.

The P/E (in other words, the company stock prices relative to the actual money a company makes) is now about twice as much as back in 2020.

Yup I moved mostly out of usd, no stocks listed in the US, no US Treasuries.

I see either default or massive inflation or both in the cards for the US very soon.

The main issue as usual is US hegemony (or what's left of it) has a way of fucking up the rest of the world. When that bubble pops it's going to cause a whole bunch of industries trouble.

Yup. Highest it’s ever been and there’s no explanation as to why. Not a sensible one anyway, given most are in the shit.

Tf happened in Spring 26?

It is even more extreme if you view the entire index history. The Covid peak looks almost benign in comparison and that was quite substantial but with a rather slow in rise and fall. Now, since the LLM bubble has been started, NASDAQ has almost doubled and in recent months almost feverishly. Nah, no bubble, nothing to see here, all based on reality. Please invest, we need to unload the bad money onto someone else.

It is a bubble, but ……

• a bubble is a great place to make huge gains ….. as long as you get out in time
• usually a few companies survive the bubble pop. Their stock price baby also crashes but then recovers to “normal” valuation

I sit out bubbles because I recognize them but know I never know how to get out in time. But I do know some who succeed in riding the wave while still coming out the other side

IMHO what matters is the fundamentals, not technical analysis. Iff they had a breakthrough technology that was actually profitable, then I could believe a chart like that.

where do you put your money that is safe though

even eu will take a hit

I’ve pulled most of my money out of stocks stuck it in bonds. I have a few dividend ETFs like SCHD and some oil and energy sector stocks that I bought on the cheap before Trump fucked the oil markets.

It’s a giant bubble but there are sectors you can sit in defensively.

IMO the Space X and AI offerings are going to hoover up any liquidity left in a market that is showing less and less breath. Energy shortages will kill by July/August.

I went 30% into international funds after the first recovery from Donald's tariffs in spring 2025, when it became abundantly clear that our former trading partners were all hammering out new trade agreements. (Which take 1.5 - 2 years to take effect, but eventually they will and it'll affect the US adversely.)

Been meaning to rebalance into money markets and bonds with how crazy this year's been. This just makes me want to do that faster.

The very broad funds definitely will - VTI/VTSAX - but at lower weights and under less time pressure than the rigid index funds (VOO/VFIAX). That takes off a lot of the liquidity squeeze and (presumably) reduces their loss.

But you have to remember that people who use these funds intentionally invest in obvious losers and willingly overpay for hyped stocks because they believe, in the long run, that buying obvious losers is more than balanced by also buying the unexpected winners.

SpaceX is just the first time an oligarch tried so obviously to rig the passive investor structure to his favor, and I'm glad the S&P people didn't cave.

The popular Vanguard ETFs will definitely have it, they do track CRSP and FTSE Russell (VT and VTI for example) - Both of which adopted fast track rules that will allow SpaceX to become eligible 5 days after the IPO. Unless Vanguard themselves decide not to include it in their portfolios (seems unlikely but you never know). I think Vanguard does have some funds specific to tracking S&P but that's not usually what people use Vanguard for.

e.g.

https://www.basenor.com/blogs/news/ftse-russell-fast-entry-rule-could-land-spacex-in-major-indexes-days-after-ipo

https://moneywise.com/news/top-stories/elon-musk-spacex-ipo-crsp-vti-ftse-russell-nasdaq-401k

That could lead to some interesting outcomes, how these funds look in 12 months could indeed be tied to which specific index(s) they are tracking.

You mean Vanguard and Blackrock ETF?

I'm not the most financially savvy person, but I'm wondering if they'll pass based on fiduciary duty rules. It would be pretty tough to prove violation for something like this, but the question is whether or not they even want to open themselves up to the possibility. I guess it depends on how close they think the bubble is to bursting and if they think they can justify the risk with potential earnings

Might? Also, when other Ai companies are already counted in the S&P or would be redundant.