Starting from today, everyday your chances of winning $1 billion increase by 0.005%.

That wording 100% says to me that you get a try every day to win the billion. Looking at it like you would in a legal case, it stands as an every day chance since a year timeframe was never mentioned in the original prompt.

Sure, the million would be nice, but In today's economy "cheap" houses that used to be 100-200k near me are going for nearly half a mil.

The billion is the clear answer to me. Short of some extremely bad luck, you're getting that billion in a year or few. You gain 1.825% per year which doesn't seem like much, but you're getting that ~2% chance every single day.

A few years of living like I already am for a statistically guaranteed (but unpredictable) billion dollars is a win to me.

More of a general assumption tbh. Lets assume that each day having a chance of say 10% to becoming a billionaire is plenty likely enough. 10/0.005=2000. 2000/365= ~5.5yrs. So its fair to assume you will need much less than a decade before it's incredibly likely.

I actually think within 2 years you're well over 50% likely.

Within the first year you're over 1.5% probability (0.005 * 300 = 1.5) per day.

That means in the second year youd have 365 days with a probability over 1%. According to ChatGPT, cause I didn't feel like doing the math myself, the cumulative odds are over 50% by day 166 (which sounds about right to me), and by day 430 you're basically guaranteed to have won.

The math for any given day is p(win) = 1-prod(1-0.00005n) from n=1->n