If you choose the first option, $1 million will be immediately added to your bank account, however if you choose the second option, starting from today everyday your chances of winning $1 billion increase by 0.005%. If you accept your chances will start at 0% and keep increasing.

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[–] 1 point 1 year ago

I would use this definition, that is in the OP, the probability given is the one of having won the draw by that time: the first year when the draw happen the probability is 0, the second year the probability of having won is 9.125%, while the probability at the third year is 18.25%. This is the sum of the probability of having won either of the two draws (you can’t win more than once).

If you want to interpret the probability as a one time probability, then I agree with you.

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