This is like a common house fly worrying about the lifespan of Cthulhu.

On the contrary, it will not be the number of rolls that destroys it, but being thrown away. You should roll it as much as you can before then, any time spent not rolling is time wasted!

🎶These dice are spinning around me

🎶The whole table's spinning without me

🎶Every sesh sends future to past

🎶Every roll leaves me one less to my last

That’s stupid. But obviously how the dice strikes the table impacts its balance and therefore the probability of rolling specific numbers. So we must figure out what side need to strike the table first to decrease the probability of getting an undesirable roll. Boom, I out physicsed you’re probabilities.

Besides, everyone knows you play the long game of training your dice by always resting them with the high value up.

It probably does nothing, but maybe the atoms shift over time and it warps just a bit and rolls better.

After like three 20s I can't roll over 10 I need better dice. Or better luck.

And when the Nat 1 shows up, rub your eye because you had sand in it.

I love my fair dice (I've been playing for a while, so they're gamescience dice, though I think I have only used the zocchihedron in anger twice) there's nothing like rolling 1s and 20s with equal chances. In d&d 3.5 our last fight started when I attempted to kick open a door the ranger was peeking through and rolled a 1

Imagine if he didn't always show the other zonk. "So you picked door number 1. Let's see what's behind door number 2!"

Door 2 reveals a brand new car

"... So, do you wanna switch to door 3?"

It literally doesn't matter whether you stick with your door or switch.

Takes mathematical model and shoves it in the trash

No! I won't listen! It doesn't matter, I tell you!!!

Ai probably

Weirdly enough, it’s just the way probability works.

Once something stops being a possibility, and becomes a fact (ie. dice are rolled, numbers known) - future probability is no longer affected (assuming independent events like die rolls).

e.g. you have a 1/400 chance of rolling two 1s on a D20 back-to-back. But if your first roll is a 1, you’re back down to the standard 1/20 chance of doing it again - because one of the conditions has already been met.

Math

The die has no memory of its past roles

The math checks out, but the problem is the danger of rolling a nat 20 on your practice roll. The odds of getting two nat 20s in a row are almost as low as the odds of getting two nat 1s, so you may be screwing yourself out of a crit

No. You have a five percent chance of rolling any given number on any given roll on a twenty sided die.

Before you roll any dice, the chances of rolling two nat 1s are 1/400. But after you roll your first die, whatever it happened to be, your chances of rolling a nat 1 are 1/20. The chances of the entire scenario have no impact on the probability of the individual rolls

Short version, two coin flips. There are 4 options:

HH, HT, TH, TT

So there's two chances to get one Tails and one Heads, out of 4, so 2/4 = 1/2, half the tosses. Then 1/4 on each of HH and TT.

So rolling one Tails is more likely than rolling two.

But once you've flipped the first coin, it's "locked in". If it was Heads, the only options left to you are HT and HH. The fact that there could have been a T that, if flipped first, would land us in TH is irrelevant fantasy. We've got the H, and all that's left is HT or HH, even odds.

Dice are the same. What makes a double 1 rare is that you have to roll 1 specifically and only two times to get there, whereas a single 1 can be first or second, and the other number can be any of the other 19 other numbers. It's the duplication of different results we consider "the same" that make one thing more likely. But once you've already rolled a 1, none of that matters anymore. Now it's just 20 numbers, each equally likely. We're locked in.

The standard answer is that the odds of the first roll don't change the odds of the second roll, the second roll still has a 1/20 chance of a 1, no matter what the first roll is.

The more thorough answer is that it's a misunderstanding of what probabilities are. Yes, there's a 1/400 chance of rolling 2 1s, but by the time you roll the first die and get a 1, you're not talking about that problem anymore. You've introduced new information to the problem, and thus have to change your calculation. There's a 1/20 chance of rolling 2 1s after you're already rolled one. Let's calculate it...

So, there's 400 ways 2 dice can fall, yes, and there's only 1 way that they can both fall on 1. However, there's 20 ways that the first die can fall on 1, one for each possible fall of the second die. So, when we say that that has already happened, we have to eliminate 380 of those 400 die rolls, those are no longer possible. That leaves us with only 20 ways that the second die can fall, and only 1 of those is a 1. So the odds of rolling a on the second die, after already rolling a 1 on the first die is 1/20.

We can also calculate it differently. What are the odds of the second die falling on 1? Cause that's the one we care about, really. And there's 20 ways that can happen, one for each possible fall of the first die. So the odds of the second die falling on 1, when rolling 2 dice is 20/400, or 1/20.

If you’re having an unlimited number of rolls prior to your “real” roll

You'd end up with a perfectly smooth D20 which would never stop rolling, assuming it was rolled in a vacuum.