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Come on guys... (lemmy.dbzer0.com)
submitted 1 year ago by to c/rpgmemes@ttrpg.network
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[–] 19 points 1 year ago (5 children)

Before you roll any dice, the chances of rolling two nat 1s are 1/400. But after you roll your first die, whatever it happened to be, your chances of rolling a nat 1 are 1/20. The chances of the entire scenario have no impact on the probability of the individual rolls

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  • [–] 15 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    @FearfulSalad @brian The Gambler's Fallacy even shows up in humor.Hitchhiker: "thank you, but aren't you even a little worried picking up hitchhikers?"Driver: "nah bro, the odds of a car having TWO serial killers is too tiny to worry about."

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (2 children)

    Right but the way I took the meme was that you would roll until you get a 1, then deciding the next roll is the "real" one.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 year ago

    That's what the meme says, but probability doesn't work that way. If you want the result from a roll, what you've roller before has no bearing on the result from this roll. Thus the chance for a single d20 roll is always 1/20, or 5%.

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