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Step 1: Spend tons of money on AI Step 2: Fire 10-20% of total tech workforce Step 3: ? Step 4: Profit (post positive earnings) Step 5: Fire even more employees because your AI solution is failing anyway
Amazon both fired a ton and had a ton of senior people leave, they burned the candle from both ends directly and indirectly and the effects are starting to amplify.
WAIT, you mean not every single LLM company is going to win the LLM race? That in the end it'll be somewhere between 0 and 3 companies who make big money with a handful of niche players? Who would have thought?
Kind of funny in a way.
The ultra wealthy hate normal people that don't have a mental illness regarding hoarding. They sabotage education so that the populace is stupid and votes for them. Then, they create AI with the hopes of learning from the stupid populace, and it fails because the AI is synthesizing stupidity.
Maybe the stupid MAGAs will be their own downfall
Back in the 90s, I was working in the record business, on the sales & marketing side.
All these chains of massive big box record/video/book/electronics/computer stores started popping up across America - Best Buy, Circuit City, Media Play, Virgin, Borders, Barnes & Noble, etc. - as well as all the established chains like Recordtown, Camelot, etc. adding big box stores. Every city had at least one of EACH of these chains, if not 2 or 3. Every city, even smaller or mid-size cities, soon had 10 or more Big Box stores spread around, each with massive displays of inventory.
That meant every city had far more inventory than any market could possibly bear. I was in the Classical/Jazz division, and knew that even a "hit" classical record would only sell maybe 50 copies in a city, but now there were 1000 copies in all the stores in that city, and MOST of them would never sell, and would eventually get returned. But I got paid commission on sales, and my commission wasn't clawed back if it got returned, so I did my job, and sold all that overstock inventory that the Big Boxes demanded, collected my commission, and bought a house.
I knew ALL the major players at the Big Box chains, and they were aware that the situation was unsustainable, but eventually they would run all the others out of business, primarily through predatory loss leader sale pricing, and be the last man standing. That was the strategy that they ALL had, without exception, and it worked. Before long, they all started to close stores.
Today, the only one left is Best Buy, and they don't even carry music any more, after running every other music store out of business.
The point is, that same Last Man Standing scenario seems to be the strategy here, too. Lots of money will be wasted by companies who blink, and abandon their commitment, or are run out of business because the market simply can't bear that much competition for limited interest in the product. At least people WANTED music, people are literally HOSTILE toward Data Center products.
Amazon already won their version of that contest. I can't imagine how the people running it think, but maybe they wouldn't want to play that game again when they can just wait and buy up all the losers at a small fraction of the current value.
And even the losers will end up with datacenter sized space all over kingdom come with access to massive amounts of electricity and water to begin the next phase of evil.
Amazon has had a huge brain drain going on for the past several years now. They’ve lost a huge portion of senior engineers to competitors and replaced them with people too junior to step into the hole that was left. Amazon is faltering.
I feel for the developers who will inevitably lose their jobs. Otherwise, HA HA!
I'm actually a bit disappointed that Amazon isn't going to crash and burn like all these other companies when the bubble bursts :(
True, but Amazon abandoning their commitment will influence others who are on the fence, and they will quit, too, thus hastening the inevitable crash.
Think of this as the beginning of the end. Amazon still counts as part of it, and they will have lost BILLIONS in the process.
So turn that emoji frown upside down! Amazon took a serious and painful spanking!
Don't worry, they still have ways to suffer:
During the call, Jassy told investors that Amazon now expects to spend $220 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, up from its prior estimate of $200 billion, due to higher memory costs. Even at the elevated level, however, Jassy said Amazon still won’t “have enough capacity to meet all the demand we have in 2026. And I believe this dynamic will also be true in 2027 too.”
They go into debt to build the compute infrastructure for others. And then that won't deliver any significant amount of rent, once OpenAi and Anthropic run out of money.
yet we pay for their failures via our tax dollars... Billionares are the welfare queens.
As competition starts dropping dead, we are rapidly approaching the part where the companies who have been weaponizing debt start charging whatever people will pay. The golden days of AI will soon be over. If it makes your devs 10x more efficient, be ready to be charged the price of 5-7 devs.
I really need the AI bubble to wait two months to pop so that I can get my buy-a-house seed money out of the market.
Umm, bud, get that money out now? It's commonly advised to not bet anything you need, or use it as a savings account. Especially not now, before it was barely somewhat possible when things were stable, but not now. And with your down payment? Pretty serious stuff to lose just because some jabroni sends a tweet or didn't bribe the administration enough. Things can go right, yeah, but think about how wrong things can go, and how fast, and how much more likely that is than making... What? 1k or something, at most? Naah, naah. You can just negotiate a better price for the house to make up for the difference.
Umm, bud, get that money out now?
Can’t. It’s a company stock plan where you can choose to buy it and have payroll deductions over a year, and at the end if the price has stayed steady or increased they give it to you at 20% under the price it was a year earlier. Since my company stock is 4x what it was a year ago that became some real money, but I think it may be tied to the bubble so I’m hoping for an october pop.
Many LLM labs are shockingly dysfunctional.
Amazon and the useless Nova series is a great example, but Microsoft has its own too. AMD as well.
Europe has a ton of them, labs barely replicating obsolete Llama2 training routines in 2026, but somehow getting tons of taxpayer dollars? Saudi labs doing basically nothing.
I mean… I could follow an off-the-shelf Nvidia Nemotron recipe and do better. Or more sanely, just start with that as a base. And that’s sad; apparently these highly paid labs don’t even follow the space enough to know to do that? What on Earth are they even doing internally?
Have you seen how these tech companies treat their workers? Too many in the field are extremely burnt out to point that they can't function anywhere near the level required for the technological breakthroughs that the execs are demanding. They want to hire entry to mid-level data scientists for the low pay and then expect them to output the quality of work of a senior data scientist with 10+ years of experience. They're being set up to fail.
That’s not even “breakthroughs,” though.
That’s just “follow instructions for what’s already been done, and meet par.” Anyone with some Python experience and instruction following ability could do it. In LLM land, what some research houses are doing would be like releasing some new white box computer with chips from 15 years ago.
It makes no sense. It’s way too late to be interesting.
But I guess it’s getting funded because the funders can’t really tell.
Good news
I don't blame a company for investing a bit of time in trying out a new tech, but it's good they realized it's trash before it was too late.
It's like an energy company that hired climate scientists, and then decided to stop drilling for hydrocarbons and instead shifted to offshore wind

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