The US auto industry is absolutely to blame for pushing gigantic gas guzzlers on people. But the people who buy those monstrosities and get hugely into debt to do it are very much to blame too.
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To the extent that we need cars (since our infrastructure would take years to change even if there was the political will to do it) we need to start copying the Cubans and learn to keep old cars on the road longer. Bonus: they don't spy on you like new cars do.
I have just reached this point myself.
I have a short fun drive to work, enjoy it as a way to clear my head, and I even had a manual transmission WRX a long time ago. I have been checking up on the current models and there are some pretty good looking options whether manual + AWD or maybe a dual clutch setup, etc.
But right now I'm driving a basic car that we bought new like 14 years ago. It still looks good, it's fun to drive (the automatic is shiftable and has lockup clutches while in gear), and it seems mechanically sound with very low miles for the age.
Just the other day I made a conscious decision to stop reading and watching car reviews, and I have been getting back into working on my own car. I have some supplies on the way to change some fluids and shine up the exterior.
Having a fun car helps the drive as long as there’s not too much traffic. I almost don’t mind driving my kid to school (because there’s not enough buses) because my GTI is fun.
Yeah, and that is one of the big intangible benefits of my current job. I do a lot of work in-office even though I'm a software guy, and my "commute" is a 6 or 7 minute drive where the middle two miles is a twisty and hilly country road with very few houses on it. And, if the weather is really really bad, there is a slightly shorter alternate route through a much more populated area but it is perfectly flat roads the whole way.
A GTI would be an absolute blast. Does it have the DSG and if so, how do you like it?
My car is an old Mazda3 from when they first introduced their "Skyactiv" branded tech. The 6-speed auto transmission doesn't quickly snap through shifts like I imagine a dual clutch would, but since keeps the lockup clutch pack engaged as often as possible, when in gear it kind of feels like a manual. I can do the whole twisty road stretch of my commute in 3rd gear and have a pretty fun time hovering between 3k and 5k RPM.
The engine is a 2.0L 155hp, and every time I drive to or from work I think to myself that if I got a new "fun" car it would have roughly double the power and only be a few hundred pounds heavier (unless I went for an MX-5 or a BRZ/GR86 instead of a sedan). I would like it, sure, but the car I am currently sitting in is great fun and it is FREE versus $20K-$40K.
We also need better public transport and to be promoting things like mopeds as a viable alternative to cars.
If we did that you wouldn't be able to see a block through the smog in some places.
Depends on how far back you go. Cars from the late 90s and early 2000s are still pretty clean.
Also, a lot of cars can be converted to electric with some knowhow and welding. This could become a cottage industry.
In California, all cars newer than 1975 must pass a smog test.
Converting ICE vehicles to electric vehicles is a cottage industry. While looking for a mechanic recently I found two places that do it.
'90s diesels can arguably be less polluting than modern "clean" diesels, depending on which pollutants you care about and if you're running bio-diesel instead of dino-diesel. (Old diesels can run B100, which is carbon-neutral and emits zero SOx, but it'll destroy the high-pressure fuel pump on a modern common-rail diesel.)
This is the way.
For simple(r) car designs, I anticipate that 3d scanning, 3d printing, and even mail order custom parts/manufacturing are going to be indespensible once available parts dry up. Until then, there's no end in sight for replacement Corolla parts.
"We destroyed?" - it was car industry, no? I remember there was something about car industry buying public transport just to shut them down late.r
That is indeed the case; I believe "we" here refers to society, and functions as a synecdoche for the auto industry
Eisenhower interstate system in the US was the start of the downfall. It's a very cool system, but it cost us the trains. I dont know that it can be justified. I like driving and having the freedom to do so, but I would also like to not have to: plus there are a shit load more people who directly suffer because they simply can not drive.
I hope the next wave of logistical genius incorporates more mass public transit, while still supporting some highway network.
Hub style, like airport parking esque, but for bullet trains and light rail. New building would need to require parking as part of the footprint (incorporated decks) to save on space that can be used for public benefit.
Easy to expand on, the counter argument is always "but the cost?!" Like wtf do you think a highway costs per foot? The answer is up to $2,000 per god damn foot. You can buy a lot with that.
What I'm reading there is that there's going to be a 2008-style Crash (this time on auto debt instead of realestate) alongside a 2000-style Crash (this time on Generative AI instead of a Net bubble).
Mind you, it will be centered in the US and other countries will mainly feel side effects.
Combine that with a crash of the USD itself. Also commercial and industrial real estate never got the same protections as home loans post-2008 so there's a shit ton of 2008 style shenanigans concerning offices and industrial plots ready to also blow up.
There's no more road to kick our can down. We must face the can. The can is our reckoning.
Well, the supposedly "temporary" ultra-low interest rates that were the "solution" for the Crisis following the 2008 Crash only really postponned the day of reckonning.
Further, those and other government measures rewarding Asset Owners (read: the rich) on the backs of those whose Income comes from Work, caused inequality to explode, which means more "unused money" around (every additional €1 of income for the wealthy goes almost entirelly into savings, every additional €1 if income for the poor and working class goes almost entirelly into consumption) and all that extra money was seeking investments, any investments, which was visible in the markets by lower interest rates on treasuries (for example, the famous negative German bund interest rates), lower bond yields (meaning higher prices for the same level of risk), higher stocks and so on up the risk scale, a pumping up of lots and lots of extra investment money which ultimatelly inflated several bubbles at the same time.
Further, the ultra-low interest rates also made it cheaper to leverage one's investments (i.e. invest with loaned money alongside one's own money), further adding money to those bubbles given the way money is created in the modern monetary system (mainly created by banks when they give loans, with only a small percentage actually created by central banks).
This, by the way, also explains things like the crypto bubble.
I really only mentioned the biggest ones I'm aware off, but I bet we'll have a lot of bubbles of all sizes exploding as soon as the first big bubble blows and causes a credit crunch and investment retraction.
a crash of the USD itself
A crash into what alternative? If people are trading away their USDs, what are they trading them for?
There’s no more road to kick our can down.
I've been hearing people say this since Reagan. "This is the end of the road! The End of History, even!"
But what's the alternative? Does the US just pop out of existence? Do all those creditors take a massive inflationary haircut on their outstanding loans? Does the US suddenly shift to an export economy to get... Japanese Yen? Russian Rubbles? Mexican Pesos? Nigerian gold bars?
A crash into what alternative? If people are trading away their USDs, what are they trading them for?
Why does there have to be an alternative for the USD to implode? Why would a lack of an alternative sustain an unsustainable system which appears to be cracking under it's own weight right now? The US govt being forced to issue debt at unsustainable interest rates is the only cause of death you need if people don't think they'll get their money back. They will figure out an alternative in that situation.
USD's supremacy isn't just from being the "safest" asset you can hold but also that you need it to buy energy from the middle east, since they agreed to only trade in USD in exchange for US military protection. Also because everybody else uses it. I doubt BRICS will be the alternative though, even if it is a half hearted attempt to get around SWIFT and USD.
And right now it seems to be gold. China has been dumping US treasuries since 2020 and moving heavily into Gold. France did the same. Althought thats not a viable alternative... there simply isn't enough Gold. In an ideal world we would move towards a Keynsian basket of goods as the international unit of exchange instead of a domestic currency but we'll probably pick the dumbest, least painful in the short term, most painful and debilitating in the long term answer... nobody plants trees anymore.
Why does there have to be an alternative for the USD to implode?
Because value is relative. In order for the value of the USD to fall, the exchange rate has to rise. And that implies people are trading a surplus of USD for another thing.
What is that thing?
The same goods and services but massively increasing amounts of USD diluting its own value because interest rates are so high for US treasuries they enter a death spiral borrowing more (printing) to pay for the borrowing they already did, especially as debt rolls over from 1-2% to 5%+?
It's not looking good... there's no debate that the debt is growing faster than the US economy. Trump blew up the tacit deal requiring USD for energy. Now UAE and others are willing to trade oil in chinese yuan or rubles. Their security agreements with the US apparently weren't worth the paper they were printed on considering the US did the exact opposite of what they promised to those OPEC nations, in fact they actively caused this dumb war with Iran that's destroying plants and infrastructure in the gulf. Thats worse than reneging on your security promises...
Do you think the USD is headed in a positive direction? What do you think is going to happen?
The same goods and services but massively increasing amounts of USD
Who has a super abundance of USD that wants to purchase such enormous volumes of consumer goods?
Lets stay on the topic of your original gripe with my comment, which implied that without an alternative the USD system can't collapse, and you've heard these complaints since the 80s. Why do you think that is? Why can the USD system only fail in one way? You never addressed that besides going "nu uh"
Who has a super abundance of USD that wants to purchase such enormous volumes of consumer goods
Historically that would be the US itself since they hollowed out domestic industry since they could import everything with their exorbitant priviledge. What would stop them from printing even more to keep doing that if it's also the expedient answer? Which is also the core of my whole point here... they're cutting down the trees planted for them by prior generations and we're at the can now.
Overall it seems to me that you're arguing swans can only be white as all swans are white, and there's no evidence of black swans existing. You don't make an alternative to the USD if the USD is working well... I think you have it backwards. An alternative will be made to get around the USD whicj will kill it. Not because of the alternative existing but because the USD failed in it's promises to those that use it. But thats not the only way it fails...
Besides, any time a reserve currency has been replaced historically there usually isn't anything waiting to take up the role right away. It develops after the global trade currency devalues so much it stops being useful for international trade. The pound failed progressively over decades and was replaced with domestic forex temporarily until Bretton Woods solidified the USD as the replacement post WWII.
2008-style Crash (this time on auto debt instead of realestate)
The 2008 crash was also an auto debt crash. That's why you had Cash-For-Clunkers rolled out in 2009 followed by Obama and Romney arguing over an automotive bailout in the 2012 election.
Feels pretty good living in one of the few parts of the US where you don't need a car. Just walk or take transit.
Moving to such a place isn't practical for everyone, sadly.
These threads are always full of people saying, "why don't you just..." The problem is you are suggesting coping methods for a plethora of problems, in a vacuum individually. You're failing to put all of the problems of cars, trucks, and their requisite infrastructure together as the awful, smothering whole that it is.
A lot of people choose a car even when it is just worse.
My bike ride to work is 8km and takes 20-25 mins. Yet I know people who live and work near me who drive the same route which takes almost twice as long mostly sat in traffic. They spend more on their car than I do on my mortgage and that is before maintenance, insurance, oh and fuel too because despite choosing such an expensive car and never driving over 10km, oh yeah gotta go for ICE.
Suppose at least with such short distances driven that fuel lasts a while. Doesn't stop them moaning about it though. I should start responding with the cost of Cornish pasties to power my bike.
I would if i could. I hate driving, but I would get killed if i biked to work. Hell, I'd possibly die just trying to get to the nearest grocery store. I need a bike lane.
Used to cycle a lot, first in The Netherlands, later in London (Britain), but where I am now (Portugal) it's very dangerous because drivers here are in my experience some of the worst in Europe (let's just say that, for example, most won't signal their intention to change direction when turning right, which is very dangerous for cyclists), but in a way I'm in a priviledged position, so I chose to live in a small city close where I work, so I just walk to work (about 15 minutes each way) which even has the upside that I'm guaranteed my 30m+ exercise each day, which a study some years ago showed decreases the risk of cardio-vascular problems by 70%.
There’s the trick. Cyclists know that.
We’re just making our hate for existing on this planet a bit more honest.
Yeah, the car lobby really vetoed walkable and cyclable cities to... sell cars.
This was kinda the reason I went back to cycling to work when I lived in London (I had lived in The Netherlands before and there it was pretty normal to do so) - it turns out that it was faster to just cycle through half of Zones 1 and 2 than to walk to an catch the tube (at least London actually has a subway, by car it would've been even worse because of traffic, not to mention parking).
This was back when cycling facilities there were a bit of a joke and there were but a few people doing the same as I did.
Further, even though I was doing it in a big city (so air polution was a consideration), my health actually improved from it (more so when I discovered a site with a polution map of London and switched to a route that minimized time in big avenues with lots of traffic and polution).
If they spend most of their time sitting in traffic then that gas tank won't last very long at all.
How are the bike lanes where you are?
Every lane is a bike lane, just ride in the middle of it and take the lane like you are supposed to.
So a jacked up truck trying to go 80 behind me is bearing down on me, swearing and flailing their arms around? I have no problems with this in quiet residential streets, but bikes just are not compatible with most North American roads. They're too slow to play with cars, they're too fast for sidewalks and pedestrians, and too useful and fun to ignore, so bike lanes are the best answer we have.
Listen, I agree in practice.
But I would not quote "Unusual Whales" for economic advise. This is an AI account that posts "hot tips" for attention.
The deliquency rate for auto loans has been in headlines since at least March. This is a big show slow ship and it's bait to assume some AI account is going to tell you the day it goes down.
yep AI has gotten so good that even people that hate it can't even detect that it's an AI account.

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