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[–] 81 points 3 months ago* (5 children)

Due to Western export restrictions, ASML is only allowed to export some of these machines to China; the most modern equipment is subject to a complete blockade.

In the past quarter, 14 percent of the machines that ASML sold went to China.

Play stupid games and win stupid prizes.

Preventing one of your biggest customers (China) from getting the equipment they need forces them to make it themselves.
Now China can make their own DUV lithography machines of similar quality to the ones they can get from ASML.
And obviously it won't stop there, China will continue to improve, and probably in a few years compete with ASML on the high end EUV equipment too.

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  • [–] 20 points 3 months ago

    Politicians, and even corporate C-suite, often confuse "cheaper to buy from the incumbent" with "incumbent has impossible-to-replicate technology," completely ignoring that it's way easier to invent something the second time.

    Technology might have been a barrier in 1960's China, but they're a peer nation today.

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  • [–] 20 points 3 months ago* (1 child)

    Of course if China manages to spin major fab capacity of bleeding edge nodes off of this in the next few years they'll have no use for US chips.

    Couple that with the fabs being built in the US currently and Taiwan is losing a lot of strategic leverage...

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago*

    China is already making really good chips, even in old and "outdated" fabs. Because they came up with techniques for how to squeeze more resolution out of those machines than what was thought possible. So if their DUV technology actually works, then I'm sure their fabs will make good chips.

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  • [–] 47 points 3 months ago (2 children)
  • [–] 12 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    To be fair: Yes, we do have that pipeline. But we do not have long-term strategic government funding of strategically important industries - especially not Dutch ones. China tries to plan a century ahead (and seems to actually be able to plan a few decades ahead). No western government seems to plan further ahead than an election cycle.

    A centralized guaranteed stable government has different opportunities to plan ahead than a government which has to primarily care about being reelected. Our simulation of democracy isn't free. The massive election theater and lobbying comes with huge price tags (which are mostly invisible to the public until no one can afford to have kids anymore).

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  • [–] 33 points 3 months ago* (2 children)

    The Dutch government forced China to make these machines themselves by enforcing the embargo demanded by the US.
    Now, China does exactly that. Then they scale up until they have strategic overproduction. Then the surplus gets thrown on the global market for cheap. Then ASML dies.
    Goal: Prevent China from getting the tech.
    Actual effect: The west becomes dependent on China for the tech.

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  • [–] 13 points 3 months ago

    Yay! Lower prices and an accelerated pop of the data center AI.

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  • [–] 13 points 3 months ago

    ASML "plunged" right along with the entire tech sector.......

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  • [–] 44 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    ASML is a victim of US sanctions and Dutch/EU spinelessness. China would never had bothered to pursue lithography as serious as it did if US wasn't continuously trying to stop China on every technological front. The Europeans let US do it in the hope and under the promise that China would never succeed.

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  • [–] 12 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    I think China would have pursued it regardless, they just might have relied more heavily on European tech then they do now and thus would have delayed their home grown tech. Or if Europe played their cards right would have resulted in a better trade alliance with China and have benefitted both economic areas by exchanging tech advances sidelining the US. This last one might be a bit to much of a utopia though

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  • [–] 7 points 3 months ago

    it's really inefficient to pursue such a massive research endeavor if ASML was just normally open for business. To do all that work was only justified by it opening a chance in domestic semiconductor production which is the real price for China. Now they are probably also wanting to compete in DUV machines in the future, to recoup the development costs, even if the real price is the self-sufficiency that they bring.

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  • [–] 10 points 3 months ago

    Some of it translated

    If China manages to produce the DUV machines itself, it could cost ASML billions of euros in the long run. In the last quarter, 14 % of the machines ASML sold went to China. The Veldhoven‑based manufacturer expects to earn 20 % of its revenue from China this year. If the revenue forecast, recently revised up from €43 billion to €45 billion for this year, materialises, that would correspond to roughly €9 billion.

    Further testing

    For now ASML does not seem to have to worry. Chinese technology is not yet as advanced and reliable as that of the Dutch company. Before mass production can start in China, the machines still need to be tested. This year China is reportedly starting production of five machines; a year later that number is expected to rise to twenty.

    Although ASML appears to retain its lead for the moment, investors were spooked on Monday. The ASML share ended 8.5 % lower, the lowest level since early June. Dutch rivals Besi and ASM also fell sharply, losing almost 10 % and more than 7 % of their value respectively.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago

    If the sheer incompetence would stay consistent, US companies would start to buy chinese vcards and maybe even their inventory of underpowered nvidias. The American way is to play bait and switch without even baiting. It is to poke own eyes out to win at poker.

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  • [–] 8 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    At this point I’ve accepted that the USA has ceded(purposefully?) its top spot on the world stage to China.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago

    After the plunge, it's still +30% YTD, big deal

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  • [–] 6 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Go China! You can do it! Make shit affordable again.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    People act like these series of events have pushed humanity forward. We are seeing the US, EU, and China all try to do as well as they were during the era of freer trade. Unfortunately for both China and the US the primary reasons for them pushing for this less then world is mostly desire to have their respective state dominate more people's then they can now.

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  • [–] [S] 9 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    I think for China the drive is more in the sense of trying to escape poverty by industrializing, and securing their supply chains to avoid another century of humiliation.

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  • [–] -2 points 3 months ago

    As well for sure. Just the US also has factions trying to secure well paying union jobs as part of this. Both factions have had a voice towards protectionism but it wasn't till it was war hawks trying to secure authoritarian (aka fascist) powers made moves did the needle really move.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago

    Hell yeah! To hell with that chip monopoly. National security my ass!

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