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What else would you expect trying to make a company that barely makes anything command a trillion dollar evaluation.
Their valuation was made based on the potential for every company to be using the product. No other companies outside of Musk-owned ones are valued that way. Many are valued on the average of a few years of revenue multiplied by 10.
It is blatant corruption and market manipulation. Anybody investing in such a company should expect to be holding bags within 24 hours.
Indeed, someone with a deep fanaticism for Musk posted exactly that scenario as inevitable. This was to stand by his man when Musk asserted that SpaceX should be worth more than everything else on earth combined (he was pissed that spcx had fallen).
The dude claimed that by 2038 the 20 biggest companies would all be entirely space based exclusively, and that globally SpaceX would be the sole provider of space technology and the other 19 companies would be tenants of SpaceX. It all made sense to him because space is bigger than earth, right?
I can't find it, but among the usual suspects (space mining, space datacenters, terra forming), I was especially amused that his hypothetical "space banking company", because for some reason the financials of space companies needed to be managed by a company that could get stuff launched into space?
Love it. Hope Tesla's next and his house of cards collapses as all the debt leveraged on his Tesla shares comes calling.
All the analysts at the beginning were shouting that the IPO was overvalued.
Making outrageous promises and failing to deliver is Elon Musk's brand.
If you have money to invest, and you lost it in SpaceX without doing your due research, I have no sympathy for you.
(I have no money to invest. I was just following SpaceX and Musk's dubious trillionaire status. He's still, way, way too rich.)
Just a note: the same people who predicted this would happen are the same predicting the AI bubble bursting.
well, it is the same prediction. SpaceX IPOed as an AI company mostly
Which is amazing because it's somewhere between 4th and 15th place in the LLM race. Let's say you really believe in a winner-takes-all scenario for AI where the winner gets to monetize harder than Google... Why would you invest in SpaceX? I don't understand the scenario in which SpaceX makes loads of money off of AI. Maybe with space datacenters, assuming that's even possible? But if that's the plan, why spend lots of money training their own model rather than renting out racks of GPUs?
Makes sense, but didn't DOGE steal/transfer social security admin and other US government databases on every American for their AI training. Maybe that access was their implied/wink wink advantage over others?
Fools and their money are easily parted.
Seriously WTF did they expect????
I think some people really bought into space datacenters, asteroid mining crazy talk.
I had a family member talk about space data centers. I tried to explain how the issue in space is more about getting rid of heat, but they couldn't comprehend it cause space=cold.
I would think dealing with radiaton would be the most difficult thing about massive amounts of electronics in space. That's why a chip on a satellite is much more expensive than an equivalent chip that stays on Earth.
Wait, we have to shield it AND get rid of heat?!
Don't forget power it as well. Watched a video where someone did the math and to generate the power required of a typical data center you'd need a solar array something like 40 times the size of the one on the ISS. It would be an absolute behemoth of a satellite and that's without taking into account the cooling which would likely double the size again. Of course once you get that big then you have to worry about keeping the thing in orbit because moving that much mass isn't exactly easy. No matter how you slice it it's a stupid ass idea that doesn't work.
Power is pretty much the only part of space data centres that does make sense. You can put them in an orbit to get 24hr solar power and its stronger than on the ground as there's no atmosphere in the way. Large foldable solar panels are available, and unlike radiators you don't have to pump liquids through them.
Other than hype (which is by far the major driving force behind companies talking about them) access to that power without regulation is the reason you would want to put them in space.
This makes sense to me.
Also, with all that surface area on panels, I feel like there's a way of having them double as heat radiators - one side captures energy, the other radiates it out...
The solar panels have to be kept cool too though, moving electrons through the panels is generating heat before it even gets to a processor and without air, cooling them will require radiators of their own.
Oh. Good point.
Unrelated, but anyone deep enough in the comments to read this, you might consider checking out the game Stationeers - a brutally complex base/space station/colony building game that will eat years of your life if you let it, stay away. Huge fun.
It’s suggestions like these that make me glad I don’t have a gaming rig.
Could you live without learning a made-up assembly-like programing language just so you can have your solar panels track the sun, only to find out you know very little about "azimuth" and "elevation" and now your potatoes aren't growing because you can't power that grow light.
I mean, you could, but are you even living at that point?
Did you mention how fun it is to find out you got your gaseous fuel stoichiometry wrong? It's a blast.
I’ve actually done both those things in real life believe it or not. But for the solar tracking I went lazy and used a pair of photoresistors and some canned PID code with a little tuning for my motor.
And I fix lawnmowers for most of my neighborhood.
You're doing it wrong brother, if you're doing it IRL that's work, good riddance...
But for real, that's really cool! You hooked up a motor and photo resistors to a controller you've programmed? Bonkers. Do you have any write up about it? super curious about how you did it.
I used to teach tech making to students in a program and we did all kinds of little projects with microcontrollers and basic electronics, but also laser cutters and early 3D printing (pre makerbot). Almost 20 years ago now, so most of the documentation is lost to time.
Arduinos are fun to play with though, there’s lots of examples and libraries out there, and the clone market means you can get them in 5 packs for only a few dollars. Motor controller boards, all kinds of sensor breakouts and tiny servos are also cheap as chips these days.
You could spend the rest of your free time on that too!
Never messed with arduinos specifically, but I've built a few projects throught the years with ESPs, those things are dirt cheap and very fun to work with! Nothing with motors though - mostly attaching them to sensors and batteries to collect data, or control lighting (LED/RGB strips, etc).
There's just *way * too many interesting things in the world, and so little free time! It's a tragedy really... :)
Hope you can find the time and life conditions to embrace the projects you love. Have a great day!
It still doesn't make sense because of the power density. The size of the solar array you would need is completely impractical. Even a "large foldable solar panel" isn't going to cut it. Most satellites are relatively low power and even then the size of the solar arrays they have relative to the volume of the satellite is massive. Something as energy hungry as a data center pretty much demands a "small" nuclear generator to power it and the practicality of getting that into orbit nevermind the issues when it eventually de-orbits makes that a nonstarter.
Starlink sats are of the order of 20-50kW, an AI focused rack in a data centre is on the order of 100kW, powering the things is definitely feasible.
Unlike:
- cooling them
- rad hardening them
- replacing components as they fail
- data up/downlink or interconnect
All of which are somewhere between horrible and impossible for data centres in space.
Those two things aren't incompatible if you shield it with a massive heatsink.
Still harder than just doing it on earth, though.
they were even talking about ocean datacenter a while ago, people dont comprehend how expensive you have to deal with oceanwater, granted it may dissipate heat faster. but dealing with corrosions, logistics would be expensive too.
Other people probably thought that the market would remain irrational for long enough for them to cash out.
How did this not smell like a pump and dump to everyone?
Because too many people gamble (sorry "invest") based on vibes and memes these days rather than fundamentals of the business and maintaining a properly diversified stock portfolio with a realistic time horizon.
They don't understand the concept of a pump and dump, and only see the people bragging about their quick wins rather than the majority that lose.
I smelled the pump, I smelled the dump, but nobody takes investing advice from me.
Participating in and profiting from a pump and dump scheme is the new American dream.
I think the assumption was that the shortened window to list it in the NASDAQ 100 in 15 days meant that it would be bouyed by 401k money. I don't think early investors planned to be able to pump and dump so effectively that US retirement savings as a whole weren't enough to keep it up.
"I gambled on a thing now I'm having a meltdown that it didn't go my way!"
Oh no, it's the obvious and inevitable outcome that literally everyone saw coming. Who could have know this would happen??!1?
Awww. Poor fuckwits bought into a nazi-run company.
I'm sorry they didn't lose more.
But aren't some of these guys fund managers with our retirement money?
Since this snuck into a bunch of folks index funds a whole lot of people just paid Elon musk.
Who knew investing in a capitalist fascist would impoverish you?
The stock market is gambling.
“SpaceX gamblers in meltdown over not having a winning bet.”
I gotta disagree that the stock market is inherently gambling. If an investor does their due diligence, looks at the fundamentals of a company, and makes an informed decision to invest, they are very likely to see some sort of return on that investment.
Unfortunately, we're deep into "vibe investing" territory now, where stats like P/E ratios no longer seem to matter to either institutional investors or many casual investors. Where people are dumping their money is now disconnected from where it's wise to dump money
So, not unlike sport gambling. You study the teams, their forces and weaknesses, their history, and make the informed decision to gamble. It's still gambling.
It's totally different though. Sports betting is an all or nothing affair, you put money on an outcome, you either win or lose, then it's over.
Day trading (and now vibe trading/meme stocks) may be similar, however investing in a company with good fundamentals long-term carries significantly less risk.
Many companies offer dividends, so you can make money even without the stock price itself increasing. And in holding a diversified portfolio of quality stocks long-term, meaning you ignore market fluctuations, the risk of losing everything is basically zero, and the likelihood of your portfolio increasing in value approaches 100%
Yes, but you can't say that you made money before the sum of the dividends and the reselling price is superior to the buying price. If you invest 100€, the probability to loose 100€ is small; but to loose some of these 100€ not so much. If you invest well, the probability to lose money at all may be small, but if you gamble intelligently on sports it is too.
It's the same equation: more risk=more potential profit, less risk=less potential profit. I fail to see the difference with gambling.
I think it comes down to
- on paper it isn't gambling
- in practice it has become gambling
ETFs are generally better, especially if you don't touch them for a long time.
Giving your money to an unregulated Wall Street organization is never “Better.”
To elaborate: The stock market is a "Keynesian beauty contest" where - at least in the short and medium term - what investors think other investors think* about a stock is more important than what it's actually worth. Reality asserts itself eventually, but "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", so here we are.
- ad infinitum
Its because they make money buying whatever goes up, instead of holding selected companies for a long time.
Think about it. You could have made 150% by holding micron for three months. Big tech companies take five years to make that much. So that's why these investors have to jump on the bandwagon no matter what the fundamentals are.
They also sell as soon as it starts to show weakness, which is why micron dropped 30% in like 3 days.
-24% since IPO is still crazy high. I expected it to drop at least 50% day one. But alas, people are idiots
Musk = POS Nazi.
Too many people have forgotten that the nazis are the bad guys.
People also forget that one of the fundamental parts of fascism is thievery. They steal money, gold, art, even ideologies and elections.
if they ever thought that way in the first place
I think many people forget how many Americans were pro-nazi before we entered the war. Not to mention how it was decades before the civil rights movement. I know this isn't an American site so it doesn't pertain to everyone, but there seems to be some type of collective amnesia of the values we had not even 100 years ago.
They have no one to blame but themselves. What kind of flaming idiot puts their trust in Musk after all he has pulled and all that was publicly available about the spacex stock being an AI scam and not the previous core business of spacex.
What… did they think was gonna happen??? It was a huuuuge pump and dump wealth transfer. It was so fucking obvious
Investors really are just a bunch of toddlers with no memory, no critical thinking skills, and no real skills at all, actually.
If you lost money investing in Musk, I not only have no sympathy but I’m actually going to laugh at you for as long as I have air in my lungs. This, in between my sadness for the lost mkney that could have been used productively to help people.
It's so hard to believe how people put so much money into a completely unknown stock (and with the joker Elon Musk involved in it) on day one. These people are not on their first day as investors but they are sure acting like it.
I think too many kids grew up on social media and believe whatever they read there. Fed by algorithms.
Even though, these guys have so much money so I guess it's adults? It's pretty shocking.
They are going to be really mad because it's still 2x to 4x what it's actually worth, it's gonna drop hard.
Good god, people were actually believing in that stock? Fucking idiots. 😂
That’s a meme stock, or something you buy a single share of just to say you have it. That wasn’t ever going make you rich, certainly not in the short run.
If you wanted to gamble some money on it the only smart play was obviously to aim for something safe like 10% and ride the first 24 hour pump and dump. I considered it but the whole thing felt just too dumb even to risk that.
It's mad that anyone thought this was anything but a panicked debt rescue and exit scheme
For everyone blaming his politics for the decline, you clearly weren't paying attention when 75% of Tesla shareholders voted to pay him a $1T bonus last November.
The people dealing with stocks don't care about his politics.
They always think they're in on the scam instead of the ones being scammed.





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