*Before Trump was elected. I think a Trudeau led Liberal party would have had a much weaker showing, but not as weak as the polling referenced here would suggest. The Conservative falloff was mostly a result of the fallout from the new (at the time) Trump administration and the common understanding that the Conservative party is the pro-US party. The Liberals were able to seize the mantle of Canadian nationalism in the face of that disaster. In another world where Trump was not president but Carney still takes over the Liberals, I don't think we see nearly the same swing. In a world where Trump is president but the Liberals stick with Trudeau, I think the most likely outcome would have been either a weak Con minority or a very weak Liberal minority.