It's a weird business where everyone is offering an environmentally unsupportable service at below cost, hoping to outlive the competition.
Market share of a negative profit market.
It's a weird business where everyone is offering an environmentally unsupportable service at below cost, hoping to outlive the competition.
Market share of a negative profit market.
So, people are falling for Anthropic's marketing scheme?
Personally, I find myself using the Chinese alternatives more and more as they are just way cheaper.
The good thing is that a deepseek can be run locally relatively well with consumer hardware. I trust chinese companies as much as i trust american companies with my data and my prompts.
Theres a lot of good models free online that are open source/Chinese and the only cost is a bit of slowness on my rig. No token limit or whatever. Totally agree.
Its about as good as commercial products now...
The company taking most of chatGPT's market share is actually Gemini, which I think is cheating because it's basically just padding the numbers with random google searches.
What scheme, their last models have been so much better than OpenAI’s it’s no surprise people are moving to Claude.
For those who didn’t read past the headline: OpenAI is still growing, but competition is growing faster.
AI is becoming a commodity. Companies with such high burn rates will have a hard time staying alive.
Especially with open weights models available from cloud AI providers.
Yeah the open weight models are getting good enough that a lot of people can just host their own for most tasks.
On what hardware? I have a 1yo laptop running Linux and it's slow AF on open source llms. Might be to do with video card drivers, but I'd be happy to hear suggestions on which machine to put next to my raspberry pi for a local LLM.
You don't really want to be running them on a laptop. You either need a big dedicate graphics card (with 16 GB of RAM preferably) or a unified RAM/VRAM machine like a mac mini or a strix halo.
Local model running is definitely more doable now that it was a year ago but its not yet at the level of throw it on anything and it'll work fine.
I'm talking more enterprises running specialized hardware, but if you needed to do it on a laptop, your best option would probably be strix-halo.
not a gambling man but if i was... https://polymarket.com/event/sam-altman-in-jail-by
Who the fuck cares
That depends; it will most likely cause some pretty serious issues outside the AI space. When that bubble finally pops, it'll probably make the dot-com bust look like a bathtub fart. Knock-on effects over non AI industries, and a lot of little bitch CEO's that put all their money/companies money in AI will now be out a whole lot of cash and go on (more) firing sprees.
And if it doesn't pop, it has made ordinary people into millionaires. I was having a look at Swedish Avanza site where they launched a new feature where people can share their portfolios (what stocks they are invested in, and their account growth). The best investors got in early on all this stuff. Nvidia and now memory and disk stocks, so they consistently made tons and tons of money.
All while people has been waiting for the bubble to pop since... 2021? Maybe earlier.
We absolutely don't know if it will pop, and even if it does, there was a huge opportunity to make money from it over years and years.
Thats what investment bankers did, and that's what ordinary people did. Some got very rich on this.
Im just saying that because it's important to realize that the way we think may not be optimal for our lives sometimes. I understand fear. But I also understand that some risks are necessary to gain something valuable.
Chat GPT came out in 2023. To the extent there was a bubble in 2021 (crypto and EV come to mind) those frothy parts of the market have deflated.
Thought it was worth adding to your comment that getting rich by taking extraordinary risk may not be "optimal", and that looking at upside outliers is a bad way to decide what to do with personal finances.
If what you're advocating is buying well diversified, low fee, investments with a long time horizon then carry right on though.
You can adjust your risk, sure. Those low fee diversified investments will give you index level gains, sure. But I meant getting actual rich. Then you need to bet on the right stocks.
Pfff
Best way to have a million is starting with 2 million.
Or write a book about how to get rich. Like that kyosaki guy that blew it up on real estate.
I've noticed that some people just have some built in resistence to learning about stocks. It keeps them poor and it's almost as they want that. At the same time, some kids learn about stocks in their teens and start getting experience and then they invest through their entire life, seeing their money grow.
Its interesting see that attitude. Someone put it there. I would highly recommend challenging your views on this.
Say you get 300% gains on your money and consistently put 50% of your money in stocks for 50 years. It still won't make most people rich.
Retiring comfortably? Sure, you've saved 50% of your salary. But rich? Like, Elon Musk family money in the 90s when no one knew him? Nope.
I really think 99.99% of people would be super happy to just be rich enough to have a car, a house, and good food. We don't need very much. People just dont want to be poor.
Ironically, the solution is similar: eliminate billionaires and the wealth they are hoarding would flow back to everyone.
How would it end up in the hands of the people? Salary slaves paying taxes would pay less? I don't think so. It would be taken by the state and used for weapons (in the USA).
Or am I missing something?
War is business to billionaires, one of the best. Most of the money that goes into war doesn't make it into salaries and veteran services, it goes into suppliers. And the biggest suppliers are VERY big, and are run by VERY large corporations.
War is yet another way of transferring money from everyday people into billionaires pockets. And it's way more effective at doing that than Amazon.
1984 called, They'd like their username back because you have an entirely too rosy outlook on corpo-government relations.
Is anyone actually using Gemini directly?
It sucks total bum compared to even some quality mid tier models on huggingface. Even the joke about ChatGPT was that it performs better than Google's equally bum SEO'd search engine.
I feel like Google is suffering much less at throwing it into all of their apps than MSFT doing the same with copilot.
It’s still a leading long context model, IMO.
But I think it feels dumb because the default “harness” is pretty simple and dumb, more than the base LLM.
That, and it’s really awful at 1 temperature (which is its default).
Maybe some leadership is guzzling Kool-aid over how bad Google search has gotten? Because it leans on that pretty heavily, without many other tools.
Mistral or Lumo way to go
Mistral Medium 3.5 isn't that far behind comparable current open weight models.
I’m curious as to why you say that? I use Le Chat and to me it feels exactly like ChatGPT or Claude, it can code well, translate, search online, everything.
With the results of chat out of the box I kind of agree with you that mistral feels behind.
However, there are some features that I really like and make the experience even better than chatgpt.
(I have never tried the paid version of any LLM chat so I can only compare free tiers)
I see, that’s about the time they all got so good that I stopped trying to keep up with the latest benchmarks. It works perfectly for my needs so I definitely wouldn’t dismiss it for anyone wanting to switch to a European alternative.
Mistral has recently shown a good trajectory of improvement. It is already an important thing that there is a European mid range open weight model that can compete. (Frontier models need a lot more resources, it is important to compare apples with apples) This is good enough for many applications were data security and sovereignity are prime concerns. Of course, it would be good to have a frontier model, lets see how Large 4 will perform when we get there.
Personally I really struggle with it. I wanna use it because it's not from a US company, but it's just wrong in like 60% of whatever I ask it. Sometimes even when corrected. It's good though, makes me stop using the clanker and actually search for myself. Sometimes I do resort to ChatGPT or accidentally invoke Gemini when searching though, and those two have a way higher hit rate
My two cents on the matter is that LLMs are incredibly useful, but I would never use it to that end. I never ask about facts or use it as a search engine. Sure, use it as a springboard if you don’t know where to start or what to search for, or maybe to find the right link to a website. But directly relying on it for information is risky, whatever the model. Maybe this is the reason our experiences seem to differ.
Yeah, Mistral is just… not very good anymore.
Even strictly compared to open weights models. Everything I’ve tried feels obsolete.
This isn't good news. This just means now the market is fractured with many AIs instead of just one. If anything it's just a sign that more people are using AI.
Call me when the headline is "ChatGPT shuts down".
It is
Less customers same expenses
More chances of them going bankrupt
This just means now the market is fractured with many AIs instead of just one.
Fundamentally this feels like it should be a good thing…
But it does feel like this just accelerates things.
If OpenAI's numbers are true, more usage means more cash burn. And more competition means companies have to fight to offer the best deals to customers, meaning more cash burn.
Now if the market was reasonable...
Now if the market was reasonable...
lol. I am the market, and I am reasonable.
I've got actual use cases for AI, and I've got a local model running on my own hardware.
In short - I'm the long term buyer after the hype wave ends, and I ain't buying shit from these assholes.
That said, if a nice fully open source home appliance gets announced, by a company that hasn't burned all available goodwill and trust with random acts of assholery, I'll probably join a wait list for it.
In other words, I'm saying there's a chance.
Unfortunately, unless you're a business yourself, I don't think you're the market anybody castes about any more. The entire RAM crisis was caused because individual people got deprioritized compared to the promise of some revenue from big businesses...
The market shouldn't even exist.
Imagine if I offered a service to connect people with local serial killers. Then after some time more people started offering that service.
Would you say "Well hopefully competition will drive down prices at least"?
Yeah big AI needs to not be a thing. Small, focused, FOS, and local AI seems like a future with an okay compromise. I say as a very anti-AI person, but for those that use AI, that seems to be what they're doing, in my vicinity.
It all still burns energy at a time when we should be reducing our energy consumption. And for mainly frivolous things which we could have done without AI aynway.
It's great news. The only hope for these companies is getting to monopoly enshittification before investors give up. This shows that timeline might be impossibly long.
So ChatGPT, DeepSeek and Claude, the rest is residual. What a shame. Mistral Vibe deserves better recognition.
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