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AOC surges to lead in 2028 primary for first time (www.newsweek.com)
submitted 6 months ago by to c/politics@lemmy.world
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[–] 91 points 6 months ago (32 children)

Many believe Harris lost in 2024 because voters viewed her as too progressive

What are they talking about

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  • [–] 25 points 6 months ago (19 children)

    They're drinking the kool aid.

    Harris lost because she never should have been nominated. Before she was nominated she was polling at 2% among Democrats. Nobody wanted her. And her campaign offered zero new ideas or new energy or new solutions, basically promising to be Biden 2.0 (just without the trust carried over from Obama's presidency). Obviously that didn't work, and (just like Hillary), 'I'm not Trump' wasn't enough to get her elected.

    Her being progressive had NOTHING to do with it.

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  • [–] 6 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (18 children)

    There's also the unfortunate consideration that she's a woman. A black woman. That's like playing on hardcore+ permadeath mode when it comes to elections...

    I wish it wasn't that way but it's the reality in the US if you want a meaningful shot of winning... There is an unfortunate amount of voters who just won't vote for a woman or a POC...

    Edit: it seems I triggered a lot of people intent on shooting the messenger. I should make it clear I don't believe this myself, but it seems a lot of people are unused to seeing opposing views on this backed by sources.

    Speaking of which, after reading some sources, it sounds like education is a pretty strong counter to these biases, although it needs to start a long time before an election. You don't do 4 years of education in the 8 months leading up to the presidential election... It needs to start now.

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  • [–] 4 points 6 months ago (3 children)

    i reject this stance. the same thing is said about a black president. and women make up 50 % of the vote base.

    especially since this is a talking point of operatives who seek a gender based wedge.

    and also moot when there were a lot of issues whith both women candidates who were the democrats primary candidates in the last few presidential elections. these issues supersede all other reasons. the internal reports point to the backing of a genocide and aligning with establishment democrats, the ultra wealthy, and her “tough on crime” stance that is by design targeting minorities.

    AND AND she lost by a narrow margin, male nominees have lost by FAR MORE then she did

    do not accept such arguments

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago (2 children)

    Yeah rejecting it doesn't make it false... Just because 50% of the voting base are women doesn't mean they're feminists. There's a lot of internalized misogyny.

    Obama was a bridge too far for a ton of American voters and he was only a well educated light skinned black man... He still ticked all the other boxes for an American president. A female president is beyond the pale for a lot of Americans.

    The Democrats are welcome to deny reality, ignore candidate popularity during primaries, kill all other candidate potential, and then lose the presidency again and act confused about why that happened... I guess the big thing they have going for them is trump isn't allowed to run a 3rd time so the trump cult candidate will be a weaker option compared to trump himself.

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  • [–] 5 points 6 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 child)

    what makes it false is the idea that she lost because she was a woman.

    the numbers do not agree

    it is a sexist point because it pushes the thought that democrats can not run female candidates if they want to win.

    this is provably false, even considering misogyny. and like i said, is sourced from political operatives looking for a wedge. misogyny is just not that influential.

    Harris was polling to win the election, up until the listed slights against the progressive base.

    you can see that even within the democratic party a push to reaffirm conservative power by reassigning failures of the party on such things like inclusiveness, sexism, racism, ect. they attempted to hide the result of their internal investigation that counters their talking points.

    it is also a thought terminating accusation with no one to blame and fights against progression in this regard. and should be shouted down when ever and where ever it crops up.

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  • [–] 0 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)

    I don't believe this either. Her polling was dead wrong up until the last minute, same with trump but the warning signs were there early. I don't think it was reflecting reality so it's a bad measuring stick for the situation. Also, don't shoot the messenger here I'm not supporting this but it's an important aspect of why she lost even if you disagree with me...

    Edit: I'm going to copy one of my other comments with sources below to support my argument, and why this should be brought up and identified.

    Here's an article on what I'm talking about

    When voters are presented with evidence showing that women political candidates garner just as much support as men in U.S. general elections, voters’ intentions to support women presidential candidates increased by about 3 percentage points, the researchers’ data showed

    If they aren't shown and it's normalized that a candidate can garner just as much political support then it's a headwind...

    There's also the belief I'm talking about where people say a woman can't win, which becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. It also comes down to advertising and education (which are hamstrung by mudslinging during elections)

    There are a lot of studies like this. I could go on for quite a while.

    There's also a double bind racial bias where black female candidates are viewed as highly competent but unsuitable for a general election.

    We theorize that one driving force is a paradox among Democratic primary voters: namely, that Black women are seen both as more liberal and less electable. Using two different survey experiments, we show that, while most Democratic primary candidates benefit from perceptions of being more liberal, this cannot be said for Black women due to beliefs that they are less likely to win in the general election.

    These issues need to be:

    A) recognized as real.

    B) dealt with through education and normalization.

    Ironically your style of comment is undermining A and B by saying none of this is real, and shutting down any conversation about potentially fixing it...

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago* (13 children)

    Sexists love to say it is everyone else's reasoning for the way they speak.

    You are currently the one telling people that their gender or skin color stops them from doing what they want. You are being part of what crushes them.

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  • [–] -1 points 6 months ago* (12 children)

    I'm not saying I like it or want it to be that way. There are a lot of people who prefer to ostrich about the problem than deal with it. Would me having said nothing or deleting my comments be better? Would me doing or saying nothing about the problem help to solve it?

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago (2 children)

    No but bringing that up distracts voters from the real, bigger and more legitimate issues. In 2028 a progressive black woman, or any other woman of color could win if they atleast act like they have good policy and optics like Obama. I firmly believe it and it wouldn’t be that close. Compare that to someone like Newsom, who leftists don’t even like, who we will probably get.

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  • [–] -1 points 6 months ago* (1 child)

    They are a big issue. It's one of the biggest influences on a political campaign for president by a black woman candidate. I'm going to copy paste from my other comment below

    Here's an article on what I'm talking about

    When voters are presented with evidence showing that women political candidates garner just as much support as men in U.S. general elections, voters’ intentions to support women presidential candidates increased by about 3 percentage points, the researchers’ data showed

    If they aren't shown and it's normalized that a candidate can garner just as much political support then it's a headwind...

    There's also the belief I'm talking about where people say a woman can't win, which becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. It also comes down to advertising and education (which are hamstrung by mudslinging during elections)

    There are a lot of studies like this. I could go on for quite a while.

    There's also a double bind racial bias where black female candidates are viewed as highly competent but unsuitable for a general election.

    We theorize that one driving force is a paradox among Democratic primary voters: namely, that Black women are seen both as more liberal and less electable. Using two different survey experiments, we show that, while most Democratic primary candidates benefit from perceptions of being more liberal, this cannot be said for Black women due to beliefs that they are less likely to win in the general election.

    These issues need to be:

    A) recognized as real.

    B) dealt with through education and normalization.

    Ironically your style of comment is undermining A and B by saying none of this is real, and shutting down any conversation about potentially fixing it...

    Edit: grammar

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  • [–] 2 points 5 months ago

    … our research finds that voters also withhold support for women candidates because they perceive practical barriers to women successfully attaining political leadership positions. We find that providing Democratic primary voters with evidence that women earn as much electoral support as men in US general elections increased intentions to vote for women candidates

    This is supporting what others are saying, that this is a perceived weakness on women. The article you linked provides evidence that women DO earn electoral support, the sentiment that you’re sharing here is that this is just a big NO for women, when it’s proving the opposite, as the other person said you’re removing all the nuance and specifics of the links you’re sharing

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  • [–] 1 point 6 months ago* (8 children)

    Not saying you like killing people while shooting then in the head doesnt make them any less dead or you any less guilty. It is just an easy excuse for you to continue your actions without dealing with your own morals.

    You want to act like you think critically? Do it. Right now you are adding to the message that people will read and hear that says they are less than and you will claim its repeating it for no ones benefit but the truth as if the truth agrees with you.

    You want to deal with the problem, work on dealing with it, instead of bowing down and getting out of the way of it.

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (7 children)

    Here's an article on what I'm talking about

    When voters are presented with evidence showing that women political candidates garner just as much support as men in U.S. general elections, voters’ intentions to support women presidential candidates increased by about 3 percentage points, the researchers’ data showed

    If they aren't shown and it's normalized that a candidate can garner just as much political support then it's a headwind...

    There's also the belief I'm talking about where people say a woman can't win, which becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. It also comes down to advertising and education (which are hamstrung by mudslinging during elections)

    There are a lot of studies like this. I could go on for quite a while.

    There's also a double bind racial bias where black female candidates are viewed as highly competent but unsuitable for a general election.

    We theorize that one driving force is a paradox among Democratic primary voters: namely, that Black women are seen both as more liberal and less electable. Using two different survey experiments, we show that, while most Democratic primary candidates benefit from perceptions of being more liberal, this cannot be said for Black women due to beliefs that they are less likely to win in the general election.

    These issues need to be:

    A) recognized as real.

    B) dealt with through education and normalization.

    Ironically your style of comment is undermining A and B by saying none of this is real, and shutting down any conversation about potentially fixing it...

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  • [–] 1 point 6 months ago (6 children)

    And trump was shown as losing every election in the polls.

    There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Studies about about how people think other people will feel from 500 people on Amazon's slave labor website falls distinctly in the third category.

    Humans are silly apes looking for purpose and answers and we get what we put out. And for some reason when women run they seem to win at the same rate as men. Almost like it can't be simplified to math about racial disparity.

    Next you can pull out some calipers and talk about how head size correlates to evolution and superiority, but you are only doing it cause someone else offered to separate them out for you. Nah, I'm done hearing you excuse away your original line of "well shes a black woman so its basically impossible for her to win"

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  • [–] 0 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (5 children)

    Yeah you're right it's not an issue that needs to be identified and educated to the general population. We'll just run a candidate again and act surprised when she loses despite the polling we're getting saying she's going to win...

    If you won't accept Standford as a source tell me in advance what sources you accept and I bet I can find studies from that institution as well supporting my argument...

    Edit:

    This feels like:

    "Here are sources proving people don't change their mind when presented with sources to foundationally back up a claim they don't agree with"

    "I don't believe that"

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  • [–] 1 point 6 months ago (4 children)

    And there it is again. "Run a woman of color and we should all pack it in now cause she will lose." No effort, no nuance. Just obvious to you and all the racists and sexists you "dont" agree with wink.

    You dont have polls or actual data on this, you have guesses thrown into the night and cherry picked to make a point from endless data we collect. I can find someone that agrees with me that the sky is a painting, it doesnt mean we can't send someone up to try to touch it, and you saying it shouldn't even be tried is against everything humans are for. Effort and against the odds trying.
    Its gross. You can deal with that. I'm out.

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  • [–] -1 points 6 months ago* (3 children)

    If you read my sources (and my previous comments, "as per my last email") a lot of these biases and headwinds disappear with education. As stupid as it sounds, just running an ad going "a black female candidate can garner just as much political support as a white male candidate" can have a strong effect in her campaign.

    The core disagreement I think we're having is whether or not this should even be identified as an issue. I believe it should be as per my previous comments.

    as far as I can tell, you don't think it's an issue and shouldn't be contented in an election

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  • [–] 1 point 6 months ago (2 children)

    You want to prove you mean that it just takes education, delete your original comment that says a woman if color just can't get people to vote for her. Otherwise it still looks like you are trying to argue you have moral justification for stepping on the throats of others when admonishing their attempts at more.

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  • [–] 6 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    Skimmed other replies... What I didn't see...

    This quote is actually TRUE. What it doesn't capture is that it was an intentional smear campaign. People on the left knew she was a center-right Democrat in a similar vein to Biden. But on the right, no matter who runs on the left, they will ALWAYS paint the Dem opponent as too progressive, and people on the right believe it.

    That's the point.... Rather than cowing to that pressure and running people less and less progressive, run an ACTUAL progressive.

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  • [–] 4 points 6 months ago

    Maybe this is a weird semantic difference.

    If she lost more people by being hawkish and right leaning than she lost by being too liberal with social policies that nominally leaned left then that means she was too far right as that lost her more votes than her left leaning policies.

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  • [–] 3 points 6 months ago*

    It was mostly sourced from her 2020 campaign that were fodder for commercials. Then there were stuff like her going off on Tulsi Gabbard about not being a democratic party team player that made her look too centrist and establishment for people further left. Another common fodder for commercials are stuff like how the democratic party only cares about black guys with stuff like that 10 point plan for black men becoming wealthy. That stuff would be open to everyone because it's just marketing really, but the lack of marketing to non-black people is fodder for marketing the democratic party as not caring for any other minority group along with white people. I don't remember that commercial people hated that was shaming men to vote Harris in some way. That was good fodder for conservatives to paint the democratic party as anti-men

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  • [–] 3 points 6 months ago

    American people outside of very specific online bubbles aren't, on average, moral or smart people. The amount of "Well, I hate Trump and I voted Biden, but I wouldn't vote for a radical socialist communist who is, you know and you know" that I've heard both from inside the US and, which is very surprising, outside of the US, is both deeply concerning, and made me lose all the hope in the north American continent.
    Voting patterns repeatedly show that those people are more prevalent and/or active than normal humans.

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago* (1 child)

    well, the winner was a far right wing pedo fascist, felon, sex offender, pretend christian , so in order to win, you have to be closer to that.

    She needed to grab 'em by the dick, shoot someone in times square, and go bankrupt a dozen times after leaking a video of her having sex with a 15yr old and she'd be a winner for sure. These are the core values many 10s of millions of American voters support after all.

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  • [–] 1 point 6 months ago

    No, he just obviously hates current america as much as the average american does now. They just can't place it with "why" with also their patriotism and he gives easy people to blame and radical change to look forward to.

    Its not complicated. People need feel seen and to hope. Even if it s a bastardized version he still gives it to them.

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    • [–] 231 points 6 months ago (17 children)

    The DNC is not gonna be happy about this... 😆

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  • [–] 222 points 6 months ago* (3 children)

    Sure they will be. They'll look at the poll results, throw them in the garbage, and run Newsom like they were already planning to

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  • [–] 103 points 6 months ago (2 children)

    And then: OH noes! Democracy is in danger. Give us $10.

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  • [–] 12 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (1 child)

    And then: OH noes! Democracy is in danger. Give us $10.

    And then they get $1.5b+ again and lose again or at best scrape a narrow win against either Trump, Vance, or another profoundly incompetent and obviously fundamentally corrupt candidate.

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  • [–] 20 points 6 months ago (2 children)

    The DNC is currently up shit creek. Many other major Democratic organizations are out fundraising them by a wide margin. Many "true blue" Democrats are pissed as hell at DNC leadership and how utterly spineless and opaque they're being. I don't think we're going into this next election cycle with a DNC that's powerful enough to thumb the scales in that way

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  • [–] 10 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    They're going to love having a fresh face to attract people to the party, donate lots of time and money, and stick around to get scolded with "Vote Blue No Matter Who" when progressives are rug pulled in Iowa and New Hampshire.

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    • [–] 73 points 6 months ago (11 children)

    I’d laugh so hard if the backlash against trump was an AOC presidency!

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  • [–] 22 points 6 months ago (2 children)

    And I would NEVER let any maga family live it down. Everytime would be like that Asian surgeon from Scrubs.

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  • [–] 16 points 6 months ago (3 children)

    Well, there is a thing called counterculture. One generation didn't like the prevailing culture they grew up in, and so they go against it and set new values. This then leads to the following generation disliking that new culture and go against it.

    Rinse and repeat.

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  • [–] 6 points 6 months ago

    Counterculture requires the existence of a monoculture.

    Since the 2000s, there's ONLY split cultures that all consider themselves countercultures. Hell, Republicans think they're rebelling against the elites and deep state.

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    • [–] 50 points 6 months ago (10 children)

    We generally need like 50 more AOC’s please.

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  • [+] -18 points 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) (6 children)

    50 more locked in votes to prevent strikes? I get that she is better then the dinosaurs, but have higher standards people!

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  • [–] 10 points 6 months ago (3 children)

    Ok. Propose your alternative.

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago (2 children)

    Butch Ware

    Yeah he's running for CA Governor but idgaf I'll vote him for president

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    • [–] 44 points 6 months ago (3 children)

    Democrats are starting their primary already? Must want to try and get people to vote in the midterms.

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  • [–] 15 points 6 months ago (2 children)

    No, it clearly states in the article that this data was from a poll conducted by AtlasIntel, a Brazilian marketing company. They also point out that not a single other poll has gotten these results. This post is very misleading. But people see a headline they like, and they upvote/comment without bothering to read the articles.

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    • [–] 37 points 6 months ago (3 children)

    How odd....a candidate that seems to give a shit about us is leading.

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  • [–] 6 points 6 months ago (2 children)

    Don't worry, some dirt will be invented, and unfounded rumours will be spread, well in time for her to lose.

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