We'll combat global warming with nuclear winter! 🙃
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Well, then it's a good thing MAGA cancelled Climate Change, so we don't have to worry about it.
We don't have the room for AI either and that's not stopping anyone.
We were never gonna get the carbon thing under control.
Not while we still allow psychopaths to be in control.
True enough. But even if we had gotten a magic benevolent dictator decades ago, the damage was already done. We're just piling it on at this point. In some aspects, maybe a speed run into hell will work out better than a long braking. Better overall, but still a disaster.
No. The less carbon that is added to the atmosphere, the less severe the damage will be. Economic collapse will only increase the motivation to rely on cheap and dirty fuels, not to mention the incentives to cut down all the trees and exterminate all the wildlife.
That level of futility is counter productive.
Correct. Oligarchs are responsible for the murder of billions of humans. Absurd, disgusting, shameful... yet, wholly predictable.
as A physics channel person as said, countries have largely abandoned global climate change for a while now. they are mostly going YOLO with oil now. plus there are subtle acts of undermining/sabotaging environmental activism for years, like funding "carbon footprint companies" so they dont have to reduce thier emissions, and funding "eco-activists" you hear in the news defacing public properties to incite ire against protestors.(mona lisa, gluing yourself to cars,,,etc)
Some science channels were called out for promoting these companies as a way of reducing your carbon footprint, luckily they stopped once they found out.
Sure we will!
Human-driven climate change will accelerate the Holocene mass extinction, ending Homo Sapiens - and with us will go all carbon-producing industry.
The carbon thing finds its equilibrium after some tens of thousands of years, and the climate stabilizes some hundreds of thousands or millions of years after that. And then, provided the biosphere wasn't damaged beyond its ability to compensate or regulate for the increased solar luminosity that has occurred since the last "Hot-House Earth" climate, it will recover and heal.
And if not, then we've killed everything down to the tardigrades, and probably them too, and we end up with a runaway greenhouse Venus type situation some 0.3 - 0.6 billion years early.
100% agree, but the worst side of the human condition is in control and they want to burn baby burn it all down.
Nature bats last. Climate change is the real winner in all these wars.
I have a feeling that the carbon budget is going to be the least of our concerns soon.
Yeah, these days I'm more worried about the potential of future radioactive fallout.
I'm worried that I live a bit too far from the closest likely nuke target and I might survive the first phase of the war
That's an interesting perspective. Thinking like that, I'm probably going in the first wave.
That would be for the best. You really don't want to survive a nuclear war: what comes after is so much worse
The UK movie Threads from 1984 is probably the most accurate fictional representation of what nuclear war would look like. You can find it on Youtube
And just like carbon credits, they’ll just throw money at it to “offset” the carbon budget.
yeah but what about out cabron budget?
Oh boy, I get to post my doom call!
If you live for another 50 years, you WILL witness the collapse of civilization. We have blown past every single warming-limit goal, and are not only continuing to warm the planet but are doing it at an accelerating pace.
Its getting warmer, and its getting warmer FASTER.
Very soon the major breadbaskets of the world will no longer be able to grow crops. As soon as the grain agricultural industry collapses, billions, with a B, will starve.
We are witnessing the end of modern civilization, which will end just as fast as it arrived.
That is just ONE thing that will collapse, not to mention the mid Atlantic ocean current that makes Europe liveable or the melting of the ice caps, raising sea level and stopping the circum polar current around Antarctica.
We are so irrevocably fucked. It is literally too late to do anything. Zero emissions from right now would still mean we are fucked.
Doomerism like this is not healthy. Things are dire and will get worse for a long time, but the idea that civilisation is guaranteed to collapse is the kind of doom propaganda that fuels inaction. There is so much we can do, and the outcome for future generations better with every positive step we take. What we do does matter, and there's a good chance our core societies will still be going strong in 50 years.
I agree but would add that collapse isn't an absolute end in itself and to frame it that way is boss-level doomerism. Collapse is an unavoidable part of a natural cycle that signals the beginning of a new cycle. It is an opportunity to plant the seeds of something better and watch it grow. That's not to say collapse will be easy, comfortable or harmless but we open ourselves to far greater harm by fearing collapse.
A ray of hope: Oil being expensive makes solar more attractive. Having an EV and home solar insulated my family against the daily hike in the price of a gallon of gas.
Yeah but only wealthy people like you can actually switch to EVs and solar. Most people can't afford an EV, and if they can, most of the time they have no place to charge it as a lot of people live in rented apartments and not in their own houses. So the majority of people are powerless when the oil gets more expensive, as they literally don't have an alternative and have to suffer the higher costs.
the kind of doom propaganda that fuels inaction
And worse, the destructive "we have to exploit everything because it doesn't matter anyway" attitude.
We are witnessing the end of modern civilization, which will end just as fast as it arrived.
So it'll take 10,000 years?
Civilizations and cultures survive the loss of >30% of their population all the time. The black death, the columbian disease exchange, the mongol empire, the collapse of the western roman empire, etc.. Losing billions of people will be terrible, of course, but the billions that survive will still exist and work to survive, and they will be people worth fighting for.
Current food production is over 10 times what is necessary to feed everyone on the planet, with the vast majority of it being wasted on the meat and dairy industry that we can just stop. Food forests require more labor per calorie but are far more resilient to climate change and require far less land area, allowing the remaining agricultural land to rewild and act as a carbon sink.
The AMOC (atlantic current) is "making Europe livable" by making it warmer. Helpfully, climate change will do the same. In pessimistic scenarios, Europe returns to the current average temperature after a decade or two. Again, yes, in this scenario >90% of current human habitation would probably have to be abandoned and human population may dip below one billion, but those hundreds of millions of people still deserve the best chance we can give them.
If our best efforts mean we can only keep a billion people alive, it would be worth it.
If our best efforts mean we can only keep a million people alive, it would be worth it.
If our best efforts mean we can only keep ten thousand people alive, it would be worth it.
Every kiloton of CO2 we stop the emission of is a life saved, and the vast majority are emitted in the US, Europe, and China. If you live in any of these regions, there is so much you can do.
How come the crops won't grow?
The areas where most food grows will be rather hot and dry, but with lots of storms.
Some years will get things like atmospheric rivers that flood everything.
Extreme weather events will be the new normal basically everywhere.
Widespread drought, aridification caused by said droughts, and the average increase in temperatures will disproportionately affect those countries that are in sub tropical/super temperate zones. Those countries are where a vast majority of our grain staples are grown.
Maybe we can hope for a mini-nuclear winter!?
Honestly the replies of "if we can save a single life, our struggle will be worth it" are nothing if not funny in the face of the horrors to come, especially as their coming so we can collectively shove just one more burger in our faces.
Every passing day I get one step closer to just saying "fuck it" and becoming a hedonist while watching 90% of the world seemingly not give a single fuck about the future.
What room is there for anything with a negative budget?
Well, you see, it works like money. You go over budget and plan to pay later. Then, when you go beyond what you expected to borrow, you change the debt ceiling and borrow more. And then when you are beyond your ability to pay off the debt, you change the rules such that you can take a few extra decades. Keep doing this until you have kicked the can down the road beyond your anticipated lifespan. And then your grandchildren can just get fucked for all you care.
Presumably the impact would be greatest if the population in areas with highest per capita usage were reduced first, right?
Eh, a few old demented psychopaths armed with nuclear warheads? I'd wager to say pretty apocalyptic.
Hear me out. Depending on how massive the war is it could actually help on the long term.
At the end of the day less people equals less pollution.
Sounds like an ecofash take
Don't worry, nobody will be able to afford to drive, so that will offset it.
Orrr, keep up with me on the optimism, it would be like post WWII in which the pendulum will swing the other way.
Oh god no........you're suggesting ANOTHER round of boomers??? THATS the reward for all this suffering??? We haven't even gotten rid of all the old boomers yet!
Post WWII did a few ok things for social policy, but didn't do much at all to reduce GHG emissions - except maybe China's one child policy and a more natural reduction in fertitlity in many other countries. but despite those , global population has still gone up 3-4x in that period.
Western world did begin to reduce coal usage but greedily replaced it with petroleum products. Lots of them also axed efficient public transport systems like intercity railways and local tram/streetcar systems in favour of inefficient but more convenient (up to the point of congestion) personal automobiles and quite staggering numbers (billions/trillions/fuckillions) of passenger km of aviation. I'm struggling to imagine a less efficient way to organise people and space that gave rise to that. Maybe we could have everyone live in Europe, work in Australia and go to USA for groceries.
Only major economic recessions like 2008 or covid actually cause emissions to fall in any material way - and they don't last close to long enough. Almost ever other clean tech thing of efficiency improvement is offset by increasing demand.
A few low density countries like Iceland and Norway were able to build enough hydro power to at least get clean electricity but , Norway? erm hardly anti-fossil fuel. Hydro is deemed impractical/inhumane in denser populated countries where they refuse to flood out all the valley dwellers.
Blowing up oil production could be argued as carbon negative.
Priorities:
political-motivation ALWAYS outranks objectivity, among the political.
Welcome to Accelerationism's grass-roots edition.
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