The problem, Wooldridge said, was that AI chatbots failed in unpredictable ways and had no idea when they were wrong, but were designed to provide confident answers regardless. When delivered in human-like and sycophantic responses, the answers could easily mislead people, he added. The risk is that people start treating AIs as if they were human. In a 2025 survey by the Center for Democracy and Technology, nearly a third of students reported that they or a friend had had a romantic relationship with an AI.

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[–] 34 points 8 months ago (1 child)

The Hindenburg disaster killed 35 people. I can say, without the faintest hesitance of doubt, that AI has already killed more people than that. I don't know what kind of disaster it might cause that would be enough to do anything to stop this race towards AI, but I can guarantee it's going to take something VASTLY more horrific than the Hindenburg disaster, and it may well be something fundamentally existential to the human race, and the further we pursue it, the worse it gets.

Unlike the age of airships, this Pandora's box will not just go away if we simply decide close the box again.

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  • [–] 14 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Agree with the problem... not sure how this failure mode is similar to that of the hindenburg. Titanic, "the unsinkable ship", might be more appropriate.

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  • [–] [S] 6 points 8 months ago* (2 children)

    Titanic, "the unsinkable ship", might be more appropriate.

    Who cares then, where we are headed won't have any icebergs!

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  • [–] 10 points 8 months ago

    The scenarios Wooldridge imagines include a deadly software update for self-driving cars, an AI-powered hack that grounds global airlines, or a Barings bank-style collapse of a major company, triggered by AI doing something stupid. “These are very, very plausible scenarios,” he said. “There are all sorts of ways AI could very publicly go wrong.”

    Ooh, ooh, do the bank one!

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    But at least we are working 16 hour days seven days a week in the meantime.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago

    Hey chat GPT design me an unsinkable boat

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    The risk is that people start treating AIs as if they were human

    I cannot understand this. Unless AI is used to deceptively impersonate someone, how can a normal person treat "AI" as a human? The logo is right there, staring in your face. It only responds to prompts.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago
    30 comments in c/technology@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 37 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    The difference being that the Hindenburg was a perfectly functioning rigid airship that had a lot of inherent risks due to the nature of its design.

    AI isn't good enough at its actual job to be in this position. The risk of AI is people pretending that it works when it doesn't. It would be like if you made a blimp and filled it with carbon dioxide and people kept buying tickets and just sitting there waiting for it to take off.

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  • [–] 26 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    “It’s the classic technology scenario,” he said. “You’ve got a technology that’s very, very promising, but not as rigorously tested as you would like it to be, and the commercial pressure behind it is unbearable.”

    Is it promising though, Michael Wooldridge? Have you recently attended any magic shows and become excited by the potential of invisibility technology?

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago

    Oh touche, not Michael Woolridge! The technology has created an entire segment of the economy worth many trillions of dollars based on NOTHING BUT promises! We are living in a promise-based economy!

    /s but not really

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  • [–] 13 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    This is a good comparison if all it took for the Hindenburg to explode was just asking it to role-play as a ship that could explode. Conscious effort had to be expended to make the thing fail, but most models start to fail spectacularly if you use it in good-faith for more than like 30 minutes.

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago

    That’s a good point. The precarity of the AI is, as far as I’ve seen, unprecedented in human history. There simply hasn’t been anything that undergirds so much of the world economy and can fail so catastrophically in so many ways.

    I really don’t think we have a good historical analogues to illustrate the scale of the risk. The only possible exception of I can think of is mutually assured destruction during the Cold War, but that hinged on only one decision by one of (arguably) two individuals at any given time, both of whom were highly incentivized not to make that decision. That, or the global climate’s collapse, but even that overlaps significantly with the bubble. With AI, compared to MAD at least, each catastrophic outcome isn’t the result of even a small set of actors, but many unregulated companies with incentives to be reckless (making negative outcomes not only more probable but more numerous). And increasing incentives at that, as the funding starts to dry up (AI hasn’t really proven itself a proper ROI).

    Something—and possibly many somethings—will go horribly wrong. Some already have, like AI use by students at all levels robbing them of their education and their actual value to the workforce, and acceleration of the climate collapse (maybe that’s the only analogous crisis). But it remains to be what (not if) things go wrong or even worse.

    But the truth is, I’m still relatively young. I’m just old enough to get a hint of the world’s workings, scale, and stakes. And in my life, nothing has seemed more like a loaded gun pointed at out heads than the AI bubble.

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    Except for the one person on the ground, the only people harmed in the Hindenburg disaster were the ones on board. If you're not "on board" when the AI bubbles pops and burns I expect you will not be hurt as much as those blindly taking that ride.

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  • [–] 19 points 8 months ago

    Unfortunately, we're not all the ones that decide if we're on board or not. Our employers are. We live in a world where profits are privatized and losses are socialized, so when this goes, it's going to hurt the general public a lot more than it will every hurt the Epstein Class.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago* (2 children)

    On board means part of the utility grid and industrial food infrastructure sooooo

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago

    ..but giving AI technology to Psycho Corporations that have an open declared goal of not caring about anything but profits - is not a problem. Got it..

    Jeebus, "The Guardian" is infested with no/slow-thinking child 'journalists'..

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago

    At this point, it'll cause a disaster and they'll still keep going.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    Wooldridge sees positives in the kind of AI depicted in the early years of Star Trek. In one 1968 episode, The Day of the Dove, Mr Spock quizzes the Enterprise’s computer only to be told in a distinctly non-human voice that it has insufficient data to answer. “That’s not what we get. We get an overconfident AI that says: yes, here’s the answer,” he said. “Maybe we need AIs to talk to us in the voice of the Star Trek computer. You would never believe it was a human being.”

    Hmm. That's probably a pretty straightforward modification for existing LLMs, at least at the token level.

    You can obtain token probabilities, so you can give some estimate out-of-band confidence in a response, down to the token level. Don't really need to change anything for that, just expose some data.

    And you could make the AI aware of its own neural net's confidence level, feed the confidence back into the neural net for subsequent tokens, see if you can get it to take that information into account.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recurrent_neural_network

    In artificial neural networks, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are designed for processing sequential data, such as text, speech, and time series,[1] where the order of elements is important. Unlike feedforward neural networks, which process inputs independently, RNNs utilize recurrent connections, where the output of a neuron at one time step is fed back as input to the network at the next time step. This enables RNNs to capture temporal dependencies and patterns within sequences.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    You can obtain token probabilities, so you can give some estimate out-of-band confidence in a response, down to the token level.

    That means literally nothing. You can get wrong answer with 100% token confidence, and correct one with 0.000001% confidence.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 child)

    You can get wrong answer with 100% token confidence, and correct one with 0.000001% confidence.

    If everything that I've seen in the past has said that 1+1 is 4, then sure


    I'm going to say that 1+1 is 4. I will say that 1+1 is 4 and be confident in that.

    But if I've seen multiple sources of information that state differing things


    say, half of the information that I've seen says that 1+1 is 4 and the other half says that 1+1 is 2, then I can expose that to the user.

    I do think that Aceticon does raise a fair point, that fully capturing uncertainty probably needs a higher level of understanding than an LLM directly generating text from its knowledge store is going to have. For example, having many ways of phrasing a response will also reduce confidence in the response, even if both phrasings are semantically compatible. Being on the edge between saying that, oh...an object is "white" or "eggshell" will also reduce the confidence derived from token probability, even if the two responses are both semantically more-or-less identical in the context of the given conversation.

    There's probably enough information available to an LLM to do heuristics as to whether two different sentences are semantically-equivalent, but you wouldn't be able to do that efficiently with a trivial change.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    You do realise that prompts to and responses from the LLM are not as simple as what you wrote "1+1=?". The context window is growing for a reason. And LLMs dont have two dimensional probability of the next token?

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    The problem is that LLMs don't generate "an answer" as a whole, they just generate tokens (generally word-sized, but not always) for the next text element given the context of all the text elements (the whole conversation) so far and the confidence level is per-token.

    Further, the confidence level is not about logical correctness, it's about "how likely is this token to appear in this context".

    So even if you try using token confidence you still end up stuck due to the underlying problem that the LLMs architecture is that of a "realistic text generator" and hence that confidence level is all about "what text comes next" and not at all about the logical elements conveyed via text such as questions and answers.

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  • [–] 7 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    A disaster that causes a lot of bad publicity despite the majority (62/97) of the passengers surviving, and that may have been caused by sabotage?

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago (1 child)
    [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    And now we hear stories about how easy it is to hack systems with built in LLM's and when you think about it, they are basically trained to be as helpful and forthcoming as possible, and then we give them the keys to the system!

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    Tangent: that pic reminds me of the terrorizing tit in Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Sex (*But Were Afraid to Ask)

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago
    [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    Hindenburg was a hiccup in history relative to the fallout from an AI bust.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (1 child)

    What? Global interest? Self-driving cars? Hindenburg? Is this professor a cat? Markov chain? The provided info is so crazy that I decided to NOT read the article.

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  • 17 comments in c/world@lemmy.world view that post
    [+] 22 points 8 months ago (7 children)
  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    or something like a massive release of all the naked kiddo-photos parents seem too stupid to not-take getting dumped for pedos to enjoy.

    or all the secret documents for your biggest corporations causing all sorts of financial damages. yeah. fucking corpos over is probably the one that gets it yeeted into non-existence.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    Market collapse will not erode confidence in AI (among general public). Did housing market crash erode confidence in housing technology?

    He's talking about "scenario such as deadly self-driving car update or AI hack [that] could destroy global interest" which I don't think is likely at all. Unless some AI terrorist kidnaps a plane and flies it into a skyscraper I don't think most people will care and I don't think AI killing hundredths of people is likely.

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  • [+] 2 points 8 months ago (3 children)
  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    But do you think average users understand this? You think that people will connect a mass ransomware attack on Windows that exploits vulnerability introduced by AI agent with their AI girlfriend? I highly doubt it. Maybe if the attack was also done by AI agents the public would start demanding some restrictions on LLMs but I don't think such a scenario is likely. It's theoretically possible but not likely.

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  • [–] 10 points 8 months ago

    Can't wait for my "the downfall of AI" flip-book cheque-book.

    Par example

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 child)

    The hidenburg passengers weren't very good people. Pictures from their funeral are underneath.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago

    Unfettered capitalism strikes!

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago

    Vote for Comet 2026!

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  • [–] 7 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    GenAI is a promising technology??
    Promising der Untergang jaja

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    "Oh! The humanity!"

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  • 1 comment in c/world@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 4 points 8 months ago

    Oh, the [artificial] humanity! 

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