Lemmy be like

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[–] 133 points 1 year ago (18 children)

Now see, I like the idea of AI.

What I don't like are the implications, and the current reality of AI.

I see businesses embracing AI without fully understanding the limits. Stopping the hiring juniors developers, often firing large numbers of seniors because they think AI, a group of cheap post grad vibe programmers and a handful of seasoned seniors will equal the workforce they got rid of when AI, while very good is not ready to sustain this. It is destroying the career progression for the industry and even if/when they realise it was a mistake, it might already have devastated the industry by then.

I see the large tech companies tearing through the web illegally sucking up anything they can access to pull into their ever more costly models with zero regard to the effects on the economy, the cost to the servers they are hitting, or the environment from the huge power draw creating these models requires.

It's a nice idea, but private business cannot be trusted to do this right, we're seeing how to do it wrong, live before our eyes.

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  • [–] 38 points 1 year ago (12 children)

    And the whole AI industry is holding up the stock market, while AI has historically always ran the hype cycle and crashed into an AI winter. Stock markets do crash after billions pumped into a sector suddenly turn out to be not worth as much. Almost none of these AI companies run a profit and don't have any prospect of becoming profitable. It's when everybody starts yelling that this time it's different that things really become dangerous.

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  • [–] 18 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (10 children)

    Yep, exactly.

    They knew the housing/real estate bubble would pop, as it currently is...

    ... So, they made one final last gambit on AI as the final bubble that would magically become super intelligent and solve literally all problems.

    This would never, and is not working, because the underlying tech of LLM has no real actual mechanism by which it would or could develop complex, critical, logical analysis / theoretization / metacognition that isn't just a schizophrenic mania episode.

    LLMs are fancy, inefficient autocomplete algos.

    Thats it.

    They achieve a simulation of knowledge via consensus, not analytic review.

    They can never be more intelligent than an average human with access to all the data they've ... mostly illegally stolen.

    The entire bet was 'maybe superintelligence will somehow be an emergent property, just give 8t more data and compute power'.

    And then they did that, and it didn't work.

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  • [–] [S] 6 points 1 year ago (9 children)

    I agree with everything you said, but that doesn't mean it can't be very useful in many fields.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago (6 children)

    That too is the classical hype cycle. After the trough of disillusionment, and that's going to be a deep one from the look of things, people figure out where it can be used in a profitable way in its own niches.

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  • [–] 8 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    ... Unless its mass proliferation of shitty broken code and mis/disinformation and hyperparasocial relationships and waste of energy and water are actually such a net negative that it fundamentally undermines infrastructure and society, thus raising the necessary profit margin too high for such legit use cases to be workable in a now broken economic system.

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  • [–] [S] -5 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    Time will tell how much was just hype, and how much actually had merit. I think it will go the way of the .com bubble.

    LOTS of uses for the internet of things, but it's still overhyped

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  • [–] 8 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    The .com bubble had nothing to do with the Internet of Things.

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  • [–] [S] -4 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Fair enough.

    The dot-com bubble (late 1990s–2000) was when investors massively overvalued internet-related companies just because they had “.com” in their name, even if they had no profits or solid business plans. It burst in 2000, wiping out trillions in value.

    The "Internet hype" bubble popped. But the Internet still has many valid uses.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago

    The dot-com bubble isn't the internet. The internet existed long before and continued to grow after. Companies that used digital posters on the internet had a crash, but the internet kept growing.

    Digital posters do still have a use today, and there are still companies running on promises, but digital promises are simple and cheap. AI is not. At least not in this form.

    Big tech hype will continue after this tech hype bubble pops, but that doesn't mean the tech is good.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago* (1 child)

    I mean, I also agree with that, lol.

    There absolutely are valid use cases for this kind of 'AI'.

    But it is very, very far from the universal panacea that the capital class seems to think it is.

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  • [–] 8 points 1 year ago

    and don't have any prospect of becoming profitable

    There's a real twist here in regards to OpenAI.

    They have some kind of weird corporate structure where OpenAI is a non-profit and it owns a for-profit arm. But, the deal they have with Softbank is that they have to transition to a for-profit by the end of the year or they lose out on the $40 billion Softbank invested. If they don't manage to do that, Softbank can withhold something like $20B of the $40B which would be catastrophic for OpenAI. Transitioning to a For-Profit is not something that can realistically be done by the end of the year, even if everybody agreed on that transition, and key people don't agree on it.

    The whole bubble is going to pop soon, IMO.

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  • I have to disagree that it's even a nice idea. The "idea" behind AI appears to be wanting a machine that thinks or works for you with (at least) the intelligence of a human being and no will or desires of its own. At its root, this is the same drive behind chattel slavery, which leads to a pretty inescapable conundrum: either AI is illusory marketing BS or it's the rebirth of one of the worst atrocities history has ever seen. Personally, hard pass on either one.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    You nailed it, IMO. However, I would like a real artificial sentience of some sort just to add to the beautiful variety of the universe. It does seem that many of my fellow humans just want chattle slaves though. Which is saddening.

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  • [–] 9 points 1 year ago

    It's a nice idea, but private business cannot be trusted to do this right, we're seeing how to do it wrong, live before our eyes.

    You're right. It's the business model driving technological advancement in the 21st century that's flawed.

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  • [–] 45 points 1 year ago (4 children)
  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (3 children)

    I need to watch that video. I saw the first post but haven’t caught up yet.

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  • [–] 22 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    Not all AI is bad. But there’s enough widespread AI that’s helping cut jobs, spreading misinformation (or in some cases, actual propaganda), creating deepfakes, etc, that in many people’s eyes, it paints a bad picture of AI overall. I also don’t trust AI because it’s almost exclusively owned by far right billionaires.

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  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    Machines replacing people is not a bad thing if they can actually perform the same or better; the solution to unemployment would be Universal Basic Income.

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  • [–] 41 points 1 year ago (3 children)
  • [–] 40 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Its true. We can have a nuanced view. Im just so fucking sick of the paid off media hyping this shit, and normies thinking its the best thing ever when they know NOTHING about it. And the absolute blind trust and corpo worship make me physically ill.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago

    Nuance is the thing.

    Thinking AI is the devil, will kill your grandma and shit in your shoes is equally as dumb as thinking AI is the solution to any problem, will take over the world and become our overlord.

    The truth is, like always, somewhere in between.

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  • [–] 44 points 1 year ago (6 children)

    The currently hot LLM technology is very interesting and I believe it has legitimate use cases. If we develop them into tools that help assist work. (For example, I'm very intrigued by the stuff that's happening in the accessibility field.)

    I mostly have problem with the AI business. Ludicruous use cases (shoving AI into places where it has no business in). Sheer arrogance about the sociopolitics in general. Environmental impact. LLMs aren't good enough for "real" work, but snake oil salesmen keep saying they can do that, and uncritical people keep falling for it.

    And of course, the social impact was just not what we were ready for. "Move fast and break things" may be a good mantra for developing tech, but not for releasing stuff that has vast social impact.

    I believe the AI business and the tech hype cycle is ultimately harming the field. Usually, AI technologies just got gradually developed and integrated to software where they served purpose. Now, it's marred with controversy for decades to come.

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    [–] 24 points 1 year ago*

    I don't hate the concept as is, I hate how it is being marketed and shoved everywhere and into everything by sheer hype and the need for returns on the absurd amounts of money that were thrown at it.

    Companies use it to justify layoffs, create cheap vibed up products, delegate responsibilities to an absolutely not sentient or intelligent computer program. Not even mentioning the colossal amount of natural and financial resources being thrown down this drain.

    I read a great summary yesterday somewhere on here that essentially said "they took a type of computer model made to give answers to very specific questions it has been trained on, and then trained it on everything to make a generalist". Except that doesn't work, the broader the spectrum the model is covering the less accurate it will be.

    Identifying skin cancer? Perfect tool for the job.

    Giving drones the go ahead on an ambiguous target? Providing psychological care to people in distress? FUCK NO.

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  • [–] 69 points 1 year ago (21 children)

    The problem isn't AI. The problem is Capitalism.

    The problem is always Capitalism.

    AI, Climate Change, rising fascism, all our problems are because of capitalism.

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  • [+] -11 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (18 children)
  • [–] 15 points 1 year ago

    Problems would exist in any system, but not the same problems. Each system has its set of problems and challenges. Just look at history, problems change. Of course you can find analogies between problems, but their nature changes with our systems. Hunger, child mortality, pollution, having no free time, war, censorship, mass surveilence,... these are not constant through history. They happen more or less depending on the social systems in place, which vary constantly.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago (14 children)

    While you aren't wrong about human nature. I'd say you're wrong about systems. How would the same thing happen under an anarchist system? Or under an actual communist (not Marxist-Leninist) system? Which account for human nature and focus to use it against itself.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (8 children)

    I'll answer. Because some people see these systems as "good" regardless of political affiliation and want them furthered and see any cost as worth it. If an anarchist / communist sees these systems in a positive light, then they will absolutely try and use them at scale. These people absolutely exist and you could find many examples of them on Lemmy. Try DB0.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago (7 children)

    And the point of anarchist or actual communist systems is that such scale would be miniscule. Not massive national or unanswerable state scales.

    And yes, I'm an anarchist. I know DB0 and their instance and generally agree with their stance - because it would allow any one of us to effectively advocate against it if we desired to.

    There would be no tech broligarchy forcing things on anyone. They'd likely all be hanged long ago. And no one would miss them as they provide nothing of real value anyway.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    And the point of anarchist or actual communist systems is that such scale would be miniscule.

    Every community running their own AI would be even more wasteful than corporate centralization. It doesn't matter what the system is if people want it.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (3 children)

    The point is, most wouldn't. It's of little real use currently, especially the LLM bullshit. The communities would have infinitely better things to pit resources to.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    The point is, most wouldn’t.

    People currently want it despite it being stupid which is why corporations are in a frenzy to be the monopoly that provides it. People want all sorts of stupid things. A different system wouldn't change that.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    Define people. Because obviously people don't here. The average person I talk to IRL on a daily basis don't know what it is, have never used it, and likely never will. And a system where the people currently pushing this wouldn't exist would certainly change things.

    Your argument basically amounts to "nu uh".

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago

    The average person I talk to IRL on a daily basis don’t know what it is, have never used it, and likely never will.

    ChatGPT.com is visited approximately 5.24 billion times each month. That makes it bigger than Twitter, Instagram, and even Wikipedia.

    https://explodingtopics.com/blog/chatgpt-users

    I don't use Twitter and don't know anyone that does but that doesn't mean it isn't popular.

    Your argument basically amounts to “nu uh”.

    ChatGPT has been the biggest Internet thing since Google. If it wasn't, we wouldn't even be talking about it here. I shouldn't have to quote statistics for something well known.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    DB0 has a rather famous record of banning users who do not agree with AI. See !yepowertrippinbastards@lemmy.dbzer0.com or others for many threads complaining about it.

    You have no way of knowing what the scale would be as it's all a thought experiment, however, so let's play at that. if you see AI as a nearly universal good and want to encourage people to use it, why not incorporate it into things? Why not foist it into the state OS or whatever?

    Buuuuut... keep in mind that in previous Communist regimes (even if you disagree that they were "real" Communists), what the state says will apply. If the state is actively pro-AI, then by default, you are using it. Are you too good to use what your brothers and sisters have said is good and will definitely 100% save labour? Are you wasteful, Comrade? Why do you hate your country?

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

    Yes, I have seen posts on it. Sufficed to say, despite being an anarchist. I don't have an account there for reasons. And don't agree with everything they do.

    The situation with those bans I might consider heavy handed and perhaps overreaching. But by the same token it's a bit of a reflection of some of those that are banned. Overzealous and lacking nuance etc.

    The funny thing is. They pretty much dislike the tech bros as much as anyone here does. You generally won't ever find them defending their actions. They want AI etc that they can run from their home. Not snarfing up massive public resources, massively contributing to climate change, or stealing anyone's livelihood. Hell many of them want to run off the grid from wind and solar. But, as always happens with the left. We can agree with eachother 90%, but will never tolerate or understand because of the 10%.

    PS

    We do know the scale. Your use of "the state" with reference to anarchism. Implies you're unfamiliar with it. Anarchism and communism are against "the state" for the reasons you're also warry of it. It's too powerful and unanswerable.

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  • [+] 2 points 1 year ago (5 children)
  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    I think you are underestimating how adaptable humans are. We absolutely conform to the systems that govern us, and they are NOT equally likely to produce bad outcomes.

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  • [–] -2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    Every system eventually ends with someone corrupted with power and greed wanting more. Putin and his oligrachs, Trump and his oligarchs... Xi isn't great, but at least I haven't heard news about the Uyghurs situation for a couple of years now. Hope things are better there nowadays and people aren't going missing anymore just for speaking out against their government.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

    Time doesn't end with corrupt power, those are just things that happen. Bad shit always happens, it's the Why, How Often and How We Fix It that are more indicative of success. Every machine breaks down eventually.

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  • [+] -14 points 1 year ago (3 children)
  • [–] 14 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    That's a pathetic, defeatist world view. Yeah, we're victims of our circumstances, but we can make the world a better place than what we were raised in.

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago

    You can try, and you should try. But some handful of generations ago, some assholes were in the right place at the right time and struck it rich. The ones that figured out generational wealth ended up with a disproportionate amount of power. The formula to use money to make more money was handed down, coddled, and protected to keep the rich and powerful in power. Even 100 Luigi's wouldn't even make the tiniest dent in the oligarch pyramid as others will just swoop in and consume their part.

    Any lifelong pursuit you have to make the world a better place than you were raised in will be wiped out with a scribble of black Sharpie on Ministry of Truth letterhead.

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    [–] 39 points 1 year ago (6 children)

    I mean, it is objectively bad for life. Throwing away millions to billions of gallons of water all so you can get some dubious coding advice.

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  • [–] 0 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    Throwing away water? Does it escape into space. I completely understand the energy arguments but water?

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (4 children)

    It gets heated and then it’s unusable because the point of it is to cool things off. Some of it you can cool down and use again, by evaporation, but then you lose the amount that evaporated. When it goes back into the atmosphere it becomes polluted and you have to spend more energy cleaning it before it can be used by humans. Entropy always increases, the question is how fast you want it to increase.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (3 children)

    Entropy always increases in closed systems. Because of the Sun, the Earth is not a closed system. If Earth were a pure entropy game, there would be no life. Also the atmosphere can't hold infinite amount of water - that's why it rains sometimes. So "using" fresh water is only a problem in regions where it doesn't rain much and/or where the water has to be prepared/cleaned im the first place (which would probably make it too expensive to cool data centers in the first place) - if the water was from a natural fresh water source than just heating it is actually not a water issue - but it will contribute to global warming, but then again the argument shouldn't be about water but about that data centers contribute to global warming.

    So the amount of water is pretty much constant. And because of the huge amount of energy the Earth gets from the sun, there is plenty of opportunities for clean energy that can (and is be used) to reverse entropy. All living things reverse entropy all the time. So the issue is not using the water but the unclean energy sources that lead to global warming.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (2 children)

    Just because water is cheap doesn’t mean it’s plentiful. We under-price water, as evidenced by the massive profiteering off of public water. These prices are inelastic and don’t respond to supply perfectly.

    Also life can absolutely exist in a game of entropy. You’re pulling semantics with the closed system thing. If you want, then make the closed system be the whole solar system. It doesn’t affect my argument.

    Using fresh water causes energy to be spent, that’s the whole point. Yes you can recover drinkable water from anything if you spend enough energy to do it, including the ocean, but we can’t do that as a primary means of getting water. Eventually it is a snake eating its own head with the amount of energy spent to obtain more energy.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago* (1 child)

    Life can't exist in a high entropy environment. Of course you can declare the entire solar system a closed system but because of the sun our solar system will be in an extremely low entropy state on average for a couple of billion years. Once the sun "dies" and the temperature averages out in our solar system there will be no life.

    And yes it's (almost) always an energy argument that's why the water argument is not a good one. But not everything is an energy argument. Take He and H2 for example if you let that into the air it will eventually escape our atmosphere because of solar winds and is truly wasted/lost - but that's not true for water. You can't really waste water in a sense that we will have less water im the future (unless you split it into hydrogen and oxygen and let the hydrogen escape).

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago*

    No one said anything about a high entropy environment. Entropy is a tool for thinking about this stuff, and it extends beyond thermodynamics as entropy is an information theory concept too. The more fragmented things become, the harder they are to work with. When you use energy (or water) for an industrial use it creates fragmentation and makes that water harder to use (especially for a different use case, drinking). You can’t just pump it back into the aquifer. This is a directional thing, not about high or low in absolute numbers.

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  • [–] 10 points 1 year ago

    Yes, any further questions?

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  • Not all that glitters is gold. 🤷

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