AI is meant to automate the boring stuff so we can make art and write stories. Instead, it's been used to make art and write stories so all we're left with is the boring stuff
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If somebody invented a machine that literally doubles worker productivity, do you think a company would just let everybody work half as much?
Suppose that, at a given moment, a certain number of people are engaged in the manufacture of pins. They make as many pins as the world needs, working (say) eight hours a day. Someone makes an invention by which the same number of men can make twice as many pins as before. But the world does not need twice as many pins: pins are already so cheap that hardly any more will be bought at a lower price. In a sensible world, everybody concerned in the manufacture of pins would take to working four hours instead of eight, and everything else would go on as before. But in the actual world this would be thought demoralizing. The men still work eight hours, there are too many pins, some employers go bankrupt, and half the men previously concerned in making pins are thrown out of work. There is, in the end, just as much leisure as on the other plan, but half the men are totally idle while half are still overworked. In this way, it is insured that the unavoidable leisure shall cause misery all round instead of being a universal source of happiness. Can anything more insane be imagined?
--Bertrand Russell, In Praise of Idleness
At my company
There has never been a case of capitalism using improvements in efficiency to let people work less, use fewer resources, etc.
It's always more, more, more.
As some wise boys said 40 years ago, "you gotta fight, for your right, to party".
This is about it. If you can produce 2x output per worker you're not going to give each worker half days, you're going to cut down your workforce until supply once again matches demand. As this cycle repeats jobs become more and more competitive as workers fight for placements at these more efficient firms. They'll pursue advanced degrees and extra certifications to stand out. This produces a lot of stuff, but ultimately creates a warped standard of living. Higher productivity ironically makes time spent not working or pursuing prerequisites to work more expensive.
Why would "they" (the CEOs, tech bros, owners) be saying that?
They own the means of production. They seek to profit from it entirely. They fight tooth and nail to not be taxed for anything whatsoever. In what universe would they "give" us anything? If our current system demands 80 hours of work/week to afford to live a normal life then the world of AI will still demand that 80 hours of work/week, but now with new and improved Less Jobs!™©®
The future will not be a utopia. I'm thinking more cyberpunk with less technology. A lot of extremely poor people and a few megacorps.
Because they dont own you or your heart.
My heart doesn't put food on the table and I do it only through selling my labor, which is what capitalists buy from me. So in very significant way they do own me because without them I can't afford to live.
My heart requires food and a semi-stable mental state to do the job well. Right now that means selling my hours to them. Whether they 'own' me or not is irrelevant.
That would require that it come with UBI, which... seems doubtful at best...
I don't even think UBI is a solution. It's basically a cast system with extra steps. What we need is violent nationalization of any company with more than a handful of employees. We won't get what we need though.
Capitalism is already a caste system. UBI would just ensure the lowest rungs don't starve or lack housing/healthcare/other essentials.
Not sure how you're connecting "UBI → caste system," so you'll need to show your work on that one.
If we can fix our government so that it actually works for the people instead of the corporations, then I'd say we should nationalize every publicly-traded company, install price controls, use the revenue to fund UBI, civic infrastructure, and social assistance programs; and then balance the sheets so that each company barely breaks even without extracting any profits. That can all be done without violence.
Your "violent nationalization" sounds poorly thought out. How do you go from "violence → nationalization"? I don't really see a logical progression from A to B.
And what about C, as in, what comes after that? Okay, you nationalized the companies. Now what, who controls it? The government? What happens if people keep electing corrupt officials? And what benefit will nationalization do if you're against UBI anyway?
And that's all without even touching on the vagueness of "any company with more than a handful of employees." How do you define that? An LLC with 6 or more employees? That could include most mom&pop shops. So you just want to murder old people and take their livelihoods, entrust it to the state, and what, profit?
I mean violent both because violence would probably be needed and because it would need to be done at great speed.
Currently, there's a clear path to go from poverty to middle class. It's easier for some depending right now but not an impossibility. If jobs become a luxury, there won't be a middle class.
Rapid job loss + UBI doesn't lead to anything except rich people lording over the rest of us. Granted that's already the case, but UBI doesn't solve much currently. We have welfare to take care of the bottom rungs, we need to level the playing field so there isn't much rungs about it.
No, clearly, I don't mean mom&pop shops. It would be more apt to go with profits I guess, past a certain level, you get a medal and your company gets nationalized.
I'd say we should nationalize every publicly-traded company, install price controls, use the revenue to fund UBI, civic infrastructure, and social assistance programs; and then balance the sheets so that each company barely breaks even without extracting any profits.
That's basically what I'm trying to say, but UBI alone is basically a bandage that hides the wound and stops a minimum of bleeding. Imo, it's more of a trap then anything else. Something to pacify the masses once it gets bad so the rich can keep their game going.
Rapid job loss + UBI doesn't lead to anything except rich people lording over the rest of us.
Rapid job loss with no UBI leads to the same thing but worse. I'm not saying we should rely on their generosity. The government should tax the fuck out of them and find an equitable way to distribute the UBI, because ultimately those funds are just what the wealthy oligarchs extracted from society to begin with.
We have welfare to take care of the bottom rungs
We do? Where do you live, the Nordics? My country doesn't currently take care of the bottom rungs at all...
we need to level the playing field so there isn't much rungs about it.
And UBI would be one piece of that, I'm not saying it alone would solve everything. But if the job market shrinks because corpos automate everything and lay off the majority of their employees, then UBI will become not only necessary but also feasible in a way that it wasn't pre-automation.
Imo, it's more of a trap then anything else. Something to pacify the masses once it gets bad so the rich can keep their game going.
I'm not suggesting it as a standalone stopgap measure. It should certainly be one part of a more comprehensive reformation of how the economy is structured. But if they're going to replace all the jobs with machines, then they're going to need to guarantee everyone a livelihood or else "pacifying the masses" will be the least of our worries, unless you mean it in the more euphemistic and gruesome sense...
Ya I get you and all. It's mostly that UBI can be used by the mega rich to stay in power and keep pilfering. It's much harder to do with the other options. The state owning all big businesses would naturally lead to UBI if major job losses occur but the same isn't true the other way around. There's a very real chance UBI leads straight to dystopia.
Welfare isn't working because it was never protected and never tied to inflation. The same will most likely be done with UBI. They just have to wait and cause inflation to turn UBI into "barely enough", just so they can buy bigger boats. I see it as a trap is all.
It's so easy for people to take the check and thank them, just to find themselves subsisting 10 years later. I legit think there is danger in it.
That will only happen if universal basic income is implemented. Currently, the worry is nobody will be able to afford to live
Universal basic income will never happen under current trend. What will happen is more like oligarchs setting up charities for the commoners: they keep you alive, and in exchange, they can do whatever the hell they want, including abusing kids they'll force you to have and raise.
Ill grant you all those things but what youre describing is the exact chains the oppressor use to keep you enslaved.
Why would the owners willingly give up those chains? If AI removes the need for work and money, then Elon Musk is just another guy on the street. Can't see billionaires accepting that.
I think its way more likely a Elon Musk would harness AI and Robotics to create personal fiefdoms whilst the rest of us live in the "bad lands"
Maybe we can swoon the oppressor with a song?
But why do we need to work to earn money? Because if those jobs didn’t get done we couldn’t survive. What OP is asking, I think, is if those essential jobs were automated, nobody would need to work, so why aren’t we talking about that?
I have yet to see AI pick up garbage,now a lawn, fix a toilet, make a bed.... AI won't take all jobs, just the ones that actually paid well because it required mental skills and experience e.g.coding, graphics.... We will fight for the low paying manual labor Jobs and there will not be enough of those to satisfy demand, so wages will decrease.
Its a dystopian future for us.
All that stuff is coming. It’s taking longer than people would have expected, but it’ll happen sooner or later. You’re right that we seem to be stuck with the dystopia, though. We’ll fight over an ever dwindling pool of work until there’s nothing left, and then we’ll die or live at the sufferance of those in charge. The only hope is complete systemic change, but that seems further away now than it has ever been, mainly because not enough people even care. They’re pacified by their streaming content and drip fed carefully cultivated outrage-bait to keep them from even imagining that uniting is a possibility.
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