One of my friends is a mechanic and also a life-long Republican. He posts to Facebook several times a day, so the last few months have given me a fascinating view into his thoughts.

At the beginning of the war, he laughed because he had a customer ask if they should stock up on motor oil to avoid price increases. His post was really dismissive - calling the customer a nut job for being concerned about the price of oil.

A few weeks later, he made a post asking other mechanics for advice. He'd noticed that oil prices shot up, but he was still sitting on some oil he'd purchased previously. He asked if he should keep his oil change prices low, or if he should raise his prices to prepare for when he had to buy oil next.

His recent posts have been about leaving MAGA. So maybe there is some hope for him yet? However, he still doesn't seem to be leaving the Republican party. Just maybe realizing the Trump is not his lord and savior. I suspect in a couple more years, there will be no one left that claims to have lived Trump. Kind of like how Republicans now denounce George Dubya, even though they were all in at the time.

You've heard of RAM-pocalypse, now its time for Aramco-pocalyse.

A jug of Varsol thinner is now $50 in Canada.

What is expected to happen that would need solar backup?

Realistically the largest risk I can see is fucked economy and job losses. So if anything I need enough money to cover mortgage payments for a while.

... as was foretold.

Once you've got the basics squared, do make sure you have a local copy of a suitably appropriate soundtrack.

This Is The Beginning.

I've heard this so many times before and it's never as bad as people said.

Your Republican party is destroying the federal government.

What has the federal government been up to recently?

Ration the private jets, the rest of us have to work for next months rent

It's worth pointing out that this is lubricant not gasoline

An unintentional W for war is the push away from fossil fuels.

Wouldn't cooking oil be cheaper? A biodiesel conversion is supposed to be cheap, isn't it?

There's no way that synthetic motor oil, a lubricant manufactured to very demanding characteristics, is a cost effective fuel. It'd be like burning new furniture for heat.

Full synthetic oil isn’t made from any “real” oil.

I'm sorry to say that synthetic oil production most definitely does use hydrocarbons sourced from crude oil. It is possible use other feedstocks like natural gas, coal, biomass, but oil is still the most economical. Pennzoil was using natural gas, but have stopped recently because the refinery was damaged due to the war.

Some synthetic oils are made from Group III base stock and some from Group IV, while other synthetic oils may be a blend of the two. Mobil sued Castrol and Castrol prevailed in showing that their Group III base stock oil was changed enough that it qualified as full synthetic. Since then American Petroleum Institute (API) has removed all references to synthetic in their documentation regarding standards. "Full synthetic" is a marketing term and is not a measurable quality.

It’s just “real oil” that’s sufficiently modified to not resemble the base oil enough.

Lubricant base oil is sourced primarily from the Middle East, including synthetic oils, greases, gear oils, and other products like transmission fluids. Including that for electric vehicles. Additionally, synthetic oils can be manufactured from natural gas, which is also sourced from the Middle East for most of the world.

In April, Iran hit the shell owned refinery in Qatar that primary makes lubricating oils. That refinery and the rest behind the strait of Hormuz account for around half of the US's supply of lubricating oils.

Repairs to that refinery are estimated to take a year to complete once its safe to do so. Domestic refineries to replace that capacity aren't expected to come online until 2027. Even if the war ended in May, these lubricating oil shortages were coming regardless.

This is something that those in the industry knew was coming for a while.

My inexpert understanding is that more oil is suitable for petrol production than heavier petroleum products like diesel or motor oils, etc.