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[–] 117 points 3 months ago (13 children)

traders on prediction markets don’t think so, at least not for some time.

There’s just a four percent chance on Polymarket that Trump will acquire Greenland before 2027.

On Kalshi, there’s just a 6.8 percent chance the US will acquire any new territory before 2027, though the odds are slightly better on a longer timeline. There’s a 22 percent chance the US will acquire a new territory before Trump’s term ends on January 20, 2029.

🤮 Why the actual fuck are journalists reporting on what "prediction markets" "think"? Between this and "which Europeans see as a violation of Greenland's sovereignty" this article seems to casually legitimize trump's claim

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  • [–] 56 points 3 months ago (7 children)

    I think they have (unfortunately correctly) realized that the prediction markets can be bastardized into a quick and dirty public opinion poll without needing to do any of that dirty icky work like sending out questionaires or controlling statistical poll biases

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  • [–] 8 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Indeed, I am tired of "public" opinion (which is more wall-street-type-dudes' opinion) being even considered on matters like this. I don't care if 100% of Americans support it or have resigned to it happening, the only opinion that matters is Greenland's, as unless they democratically decide to join the US (no chance of that happening anytime soon), anything else is an invasion plain and simple, no matter if polymarket says that will make line go up

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

    I don't care if 100% of Americans support it or have resigned to it happening,

    I mean you should, because if a critical mass of Americans supports it it's gonna happen. Welcome to the business end of American imperialism.

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  • [–] 13 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Worse, prediction markets measure what people with money (AKA the ruling class) think is going to happen. Given their higher access to information and people to more or less objectively process that information, that means you'd expect a decent correlation between prediction market predictions and reality.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago

    Indeed, these are way better than a simple opinion poll if your goal is an actual prediction. People who are good at making predictions will be rewarded and continue to participate, those who are just going by vibes or whatever will lose money and hopefully learn to stay away. "Insider information" is kind of the point of markets like this, it's a way to surface that information to the outside world.

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  • [–] 15 points 3 months ago

    The only reason to consider them (which is not what the media is doing) is because we've already confirmed Trump and likely countless other corrupt goons of his have been placing massive bets on events they know for a fact Trump is going to act on. Insider "gambling".

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Because people with huge amounts of money also have inside information.

    If the markets showed more favorably, it would be a legitimate indicator that there are more discussions of this happening amongst top brass. That there are no people nakedly staking profiteering bets on this is legitimate information worth comparing against the presidents words.

    Like I understand polymarket and kalshi are gross things and they're morally bankrupt, but surely you understand why a journalist would reference this very legitimate barometer of information...?

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  • [–] 0 points 3 months ago*

    I'm vaguely sure the whole point of inside information in these cases is betting against the market, which results in better payouts. Or at least, making big bets on 50/50 things just before they happen, instead of sitting in a pile of nobodies with 90% chance and zero profit.

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  • [–] 35 points 3 months ago (5 children)

    He's still talking about this? I legit thought he forgot about Greenland.

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  • [–] 25 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    I recall reading that obsessions are a common symptom of dementia.

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  • [–] 51 points 3 months ago

    bitch ass also said magnets stop working in water.

    oh, and he's a pedophile

    and a rapist

    and a cannibal, allegedly

    he lies more than any official since george washington

    track what he does, not what he says. octogenarian nazi fuck

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  • [–] 20 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    But here's the catch, he never plans on leaving.

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  • [–] 19 points 3 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] 18 points 3 months ago

    The orange rapist is making shit up again.

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  • [–] 16 points 3 months ago

    Donald Trump kill yourself

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  • [–] 31 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    Trump is turning the US into the fourth member of the hoodlum group of countries along with Russia, North Korea and Israel.

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  • [–] 13 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    Trump says a lot of things...

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago* (2 children)

    Even though most of the things he says will never happen it's still worth noting that this is where American discourse has reached. Their president can freely threaten to forcibly annex former allies simply because he wants their territory, and yet for some reason this isn't an impeachable action. It's not even a top headline.

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  • [–] 0 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    It's dangerous, yes, but why put any weight on anything he says? He lies all the time. If Trump says a boulder is about to fall on my head I wouldn't believe it. Beyond that I don't really care much about "American discourse" if it doesn't involve getting rid of Trump.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago

    Because it's not just about him. It's about the fact that nobody is reining him in. There were supposed to be all sorts of checks and balances in the American system of government but apparently they either don't work at all or congress is okay with the president threatening to forcibly annex former allies because he wants their territory.

    That tells us a lot about America and gives us plenty of things to think about long after Trump's dead and buried.

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  • [–] 10 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    Lmao Trump says a lot of things

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago

    The amount he says during his word salads of speeches is amazing. I don't think I've heard anyone say so many words without a tiny bit of relevance to the previous sentance, or the previous comma if typing it out. Truly if you want someone to speak without saying anything meaningful, he's your guy.

    Okay I'll correct, I don't think I've heard anyone not under some supervised care say so much irrelevant to what they were saying one sentence ago. Though I guess technically he is supervised but not in my intended meaning.

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  • [–] 7 points 3 months ago

    Not happy with raping a few countries, he has to rape them all.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago

    The Supreme Orange Turd is a delusional imbecile, he couldn't even keep a porn star under control.

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  • [–] 6 points 3 months ago

    Voice over: No it won't. Never will.

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  • [–] 5 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Is he really planning on leaving though?

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    Sure, he can absolutely have it. IF he can point to Greenland on an unmarked map within 1 second.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago (1 child)

    But he never plans to leave office

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  • [–] 2 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    wow. so as soon as the impeachment verdict is in. thats gonna be fast.

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  • [–] 7 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    Where does this keep coming from? There's absolutely 0 chance he will ever be successfully impeached and removed from office.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago

    World war 3: US taking on all comers.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago
    7 comments in c/politics@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 26 points 3 months ago

    Oh, he's reviving this bullshit again. Must be something new in the Epstein files. Or maybe he got some bad news about Iran.

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  • [–] 11 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    That may be true, sure. But if that were to happen it would be nothing but the final gasp before the end of the US as a super power of any relevance

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  • [–] 4 points 3 months ago

    But he's never planning to leave office

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  • [–] 3 points 3 months ago

    Just to spite him, the day after we elect a new president, I'd love for some sort of ceremony where Denmark and the US exchange Greenland back and forth. Something like the whiskey war with Canada.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 months ago