I know that, yes. But it's relevant to my point: AI costs more to train and run than its value. That Microsoft, Google, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX and hundreds of smaller players are all losing money at the same game just makes the problem worse.

There is no path to profitability for AI.

The cashflows needed to pay back investment to date is already impossible, and it's scheduled to accelerate.

And Microsoft being tied to OpenAI is largely about continuing their "growth story" to justify their valuation. The "value" of their ownership stake, even as huge as it is, is largely irrelevant; once the house comes tumbling down, it's going to be a very long path to recovery for anyone involved in AI. They will write off many billions and be responsible for many times that in evaluated paper wealth.

Google, Meta, and Microsoft will all be fine, eventually. They have enough stable revenue streams outside of AI to weather the storm, most likely (I'm not sure how leveraged they are, but with string cashflows, I imagine they'll survive.)

Musk's pile of companies are dicey. OpenAI and Anthropic won't meaningfully exist in 5 years.

So, I'm pretty confident that a variable rate mortgage is the right choice right now. But even if you aren't as doom and gloom, it seems pretty clear that signing a 5-year fixed right now is unlikely to be a good idea.