~30% of voters will vote (R) regardless of who. A smaller share will vote (D) regardless of who. The rest have to be convinced to vote for you instead of the other guy, and the largest group by far have to be convinced to get off their asses and vote at all.
Trump won a second term not because he had a massive upswing in popularity, but because Harris did the opposite of convincing people to actually vote and to do so for her. Apathy favors GOP, high turnout favors Dems.