an intercity bus is usually greener than a high-speed train, even discounting energy source - mainly because speed carries a major efficiency penalty
Are you sure? Where I live all high-speed trains are running on 100% renewable electricity, while intercity buses run on diesel. Also multiple carriages at the same time, traveling on rails, should be significantly more efficient than a single bus traveling on asphalt. I agree that there will be an increase in energy expenditure depending on speed, but it shouldn't be as significant as the combination of the other two.
air travel is an unmitigated disaster on the level of personal carbon footprints - there’s basically no way to make it sustainable
We would have to make it sustainable eventually, since it's the only practical way for passengers to travel between americas/australia/afroeurasia. I guess something hydrogen-based is the most likely candidate for reducing the carbon impact.