Even just 5 years ago, these prediction models were being used in psychology research. They called them "neural networks". Which most of us neuroscientists hated because a neural network is a biological network. Not an algorithm for predicting performance on a cognitive task.
Yet that was what it was called. Ton of papers on it. Conflating the term with research on actual neural networks.
Anywho. I recall attending a presentation on how they work and being like. "This is literally just a statistical prediction model. Have I misunderstood you?". I was informed I was correct but it was fancy because because . .. mostly because they called it "neural networks" which sounded super cool.
And then later when "AI art" started emerging and I realized. It's just a prediction model. And the LLMs. Also just Prediction models.
I, someone without a computer science degree, was able to see the permanent flaws and limits with such an approach. (Tho I do know statistics).
It boogled the mind how anyone could believe a prediction model could have consciousness. Could be "intelligent". It's just a prediction. Quite literally a collection of statistical equations computing probabilities based on data fed into it. How could that be intelligent?
There is no understanding. No thinking. No ability to understand context.
People outside of psychology often argue. "Isn't human consciousness just predictions?"
No. No, it's not. And the way humans predict things is not even close to how a machine does it.
We use heuristics. Emotion feedback to guide attention. Which further feed heuristics. Which further feed emotional salience (attention).
A cycling. That does not occur in computers.
There is contextual learning and updating of knowledge driven by this emotion lead attention.
Our prediction models are constantly changing. With every thought. Every decision. Every new instance of a stimulus.
Our brains decide what's important. We make branching exceptions and new considerations, with a single new experience. That is then tweaked and reformed with subsequent experiences.
If you think animal consciousness is simple. If you think it's basically predictions and decisions, you have no idea what human cognition is.
I personally don't believe a machine will ever be able to accurately generate a human or human-like consciousness. Can it "look" like a person? Sure. Just like videos "look" like real people. But it's just a recording. Animated CGI can "look" like real people. But it's not. It's made by a human. It's just 3d meshes.
I could be wrong about machines never being able to understand or have consciousness,. But at present that's my opinion on the matter.