Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers

Archived version: https://archive.is/20260418111611/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/18/iran-war-bets-ethics-concerns


Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.

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[–] [S] 46 points 6 months ago (2 children)

I don't think we ever seen this level of naked corruption.

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  • [–] 20 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    I'm sure they had similar levels of corruption in the Roman, French, Russian, and Germanic empires ... riiiiight before they collapsed, too.

    Well, similar levels of naked corruption in what they were doing, but probably not in how much they were profiting.

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  • [–] 20 points 6 months ago

    It's almost as if US reps (and select friends) are getting filthy rich on their insider information, and it's spiraling.

    By the time Trump was elected, it's was already over; we live in interesting times.

    Go ahead and vote, this is not a dissuasion. But, I mean, look at them. Their entire families are making a fortune. And we only know what is declared. Trump's family, Biden's family, Supreme Court justices, it's blatant.

    https://www.fool.com/research/congressional-stock-trading-who-trades-and-makes-the-most/

    the tip of the iceberg, many are over 10K declared trades a year.

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  • [–] 9 points 6 months ago

    Umm is that a serious question? Everyone knows what is going on. The real question is why they aren’t in death row.

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  • [–] 16 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    What is Going on is HUNTER BIDEN!

    -Free Thinking TM NOT Sheep Republicans!

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago

    I wanna know why Jared Kushner secured a 2 billion dollar deal from his office in the White House during Trumps first term, and Trump didn't get a cut of it.

    (Daddy Trump always gets his cut..)

    What silence was bought with that deal?

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  • [–] 8 points 6 months ago

    It used to be a few tens of thousands of dollars of perfectly timed, suspicious bets. Then it became millions, the hundreds of millions, now a billion. Someone is getting greedy.

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  • [–] 7 points 6 months ago

    Cheating, specifically the fixing of bets with insider information.

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  • [–] 4 points 6 months ago

    Arrest, try, and hang those guilty of giving the information. Arrest, try, seize the assets of, and jail anyone who used that information. In an ideal justice system, this would apply to all forms of insider trading and betting. I'd also like to see the people running that marketplace dropped into a lava lake, but that's another matter.

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  • [–] 3 points 6 months ago

    Aside from insider trading, it's quite easy to predict a predictably stupid decisions from a stupid orange.

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  • [–] 3 points 6 months ago

    Crime what a silly question

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  • [–] 3 points 6 months ago

    And when they crash the economy they'll make more money on the way down.

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    I'd be more upset if it was the stock market instead of barely regulated online casinos.

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  • [–] 0 points 6 months ago

    I don't think these stats means much when they completely ignore the vastly larger group of people who guesses the dates wrong and lost money because of it.

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  • 44 comments in c/news@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 84 points 6 months ago (6 children)

    Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war.

    It's spelled "traitors"

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  • [–] 17 points 6 months ago (4 children)

    Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran traitors war.

    Happy now?

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  • [–] 8 points 6 months ago (3 children)

    Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets traitors on the Iran war.

    FTFY

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  • [–] 30 points 6 months ago

    And Kalshi and Polymarket don't care because they make money regardless. But this is a national security threat. Other countries just need to check the odds and who is betting and can get free and easy intelligence

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  • [–] 27 points 6 months ago

    Prediction markets are the insider trader's wet dream. Enjoy while it's unregulated and offshore!

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  • [–] 27 points 6 months ago

    Pretty easy to guess what's goimg on.

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  • [–] 25 points 6 months ago

    Whats going on? It is called treason and Market manipulation.

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  • [–] 22 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    This entire administration needs to go to prison.

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  • [–] 20 points 6 months ago*

    USA is profiting off of fake wars for half a century is what's going on?

    Trump is just making it blatantly obvious because nobody ever tried to hold them accountable before.

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  • [–] 18 points 6 months ago

    Make all payouts over $1000 fully public record. Period. There should be ZERO anonymity for anyone who profits from this.

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  • [–] 17 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    So Iran can watch the betting markets for signals of imminent attacks

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  • [–] 6 points 6 months ago

    A lot of these trades were timed to occur very close to the fact. It would be easier to just characterize this administration as prone to occasional random behaviours and sudden movements. Like an angry little monkey.

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  • [–] 15 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    This would not work if it wasn’t for the millions of absolutes dumbfuck people who gamble on outcomes they don’t have insider info on

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  • [–] 4 points 6 months ago

    I don't think it's exactly that. With normal administrations you can usually believe then when they say they're in talks and close to reaching an agreement. Here it should be very clear by this point to even the most gullible that Trump is just lying about it constantly. Someone suggested it's algorithmic trading looking at news articles that still tend to present Trump's every proclamation as serious at play

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  • [–] 12 points 6 months ago (2 children)

    People betting on shit like this are dumber than doorknobs. Signing up to getting robbed voluntarily. Gambling in general is stupid but this is especially stupid.

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  • [–] 6 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    It isn't gambling if you know what the outcome is going to be.

    If the people betting on these polymarket shares were in a casino, they would have been escorted out long ago.

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  • [–] 3 points 6 months ago

    I'm talking about regular people, not people with insider knowledge. Regular people betting on this shit are just voluntarily transferring their wealth to powerful people with insider knowledge and influence.

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  • [–] 11 points 6 months ago

    Corruption at its best!

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  • [–] 9 points 6 months ago

    What do you mean "What is going on?". It's Capitalism at it's best, converting peoples missery into proffit. In USA they found the way to convert peoples stupidity into profit. When you calculate how many idiots are living in USA profits are huge. For that Donald Trump deserve Nobel Prize in Economics.

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  • [–] 45 points 6 months ago (5 children)

    "WhAt Is GoInG oN???¿‽"

    Followed by that article. Horrific journalism.

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  • [–] 27 points 6 months ago (3 children)

    "is the constant and obvious corruption exactly as it seems? Read more to find out. Also Kraft Mac and cheese is $2.99 at Walmart this weekend!"

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  • [–] 3 points 6 months ago (2 children)

    Say what? Is kraft past its date still good? At least milk and butter is still cheap....right?

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  • [–] 1 point 6 months ago

    Food shortages got you feeling down? Looking for a reminder of good times? After the break we'll reveal the best thickening methods for coldbrew Mac. Adding body to the cheese-water really sells the experience!

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  • [–] 7 points 6 months ago

    capitalism. this is just the owning classes playing games.

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  • [–] 5 points 6 months ago

    We’re so fucking stupid, man.

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  • [–] 5 points 6 months ago

    That's a really weird spelling for traitors.....

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  • [–] 9 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    Maybe we deserve to go extinct

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  • [–] 4 points 6 months ago

    Massive corruption

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  • [–] 4 points 6 months ago (2 children)

    What's going on? Business as usual, that's what. Why do you think these guys worked so hard to steal the power? It's not complicated, looting America down to the floorboards has always been the entire plan.

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    It's funny because they think they are just going to get to keep their ill gotten gains and nothing will happen after that.

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  • [–] 1 point 6 months ago

    Oh yeah, that is a core MAGA trait: they NEVER think about Step 2, or Consequences.

    Like when he bombed Iran, and said it was over in the first hour. Then a few weeks later, he was on TV saying "Who knew that they'd shoot back?" Literally EVERYBODY knew! That's why all those weak, cowardly past presidents, not any other world power, did what Trump allowed Israel to do, and bully him into the stupidest war in American history, and that's saying something.

    They think their overwhelming force, ferocious intimidation, and God's blessing, will force everyone to bow to their Divine Might, and they are constantly surprised when they get slapped across the face. As it turns out, they are arrogantly inept, and it's obvious to absolutely everybody. We're fighting against them as hard as possible (or some of us, not S & J), but it's pretty clear that they'll eventually collapse under the weight of their own virtuosic ignorance.

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  • [–] 6 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    Corruption and grift is what's going on..duh

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  • 16 comments in c/world view that post
    [–] 33 points 6 months ago

    What a coinkydink.

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  • [–] 20 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    Well why not. No one’s going to stop them so… 🤦🏻

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  • [–] 15 points 6 months ago

    Iran is probably making money trading on it too

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  • [–] 5 points 6 months ago (7 children)

    And how many bets were timed imperfectly?

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago (5 children)

    Is this a broken clock situation or concerning outliers?

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago (4 children)

    Reporting that a handful of people made a correct guess isn't as suspicious if there are tens of thousands who were way off.

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago (3 children)

    That's not how it works. The handful are taking the money from the tens of thousands, that's exactly what's odd.

    A mitigating circumstance would be if the same handful lost as much in other bets.

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago (2 children)

    That's kind of how betting works - few guess right and they win the money that everyone else lost.

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago* (1 child)

    I'm guessing the article is about suspiciously large bets placed shortly before important events, mostly Trump's announcements, in the absence of similarly large losses from the same people — as happened multiple times in the past year.

    People don't typically bet millions at once on an underdog.

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago*

    Well, no, but that's why I'm noting that additional context would be in place. If the account was created yesterday and they bet millions on something they couldn't possibly have known, then yeah, that's suspicious. However, yesterday there was a similar article about 150 people who made a similarly good bet, but once you did the math these people bet $5,700 per person on average. That isn't particularly suspicious.

    Edit: I just realized it was this same article

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  • [–] 4 points 6 months ago

    Who's the damn house in this equation ? That's some Trumpian casino mismanagement.

    Oh, right, $950 million was from the stock market, so peoples retirement funds I guess...

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  • [–] 4 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    Document who did this. Make thier names known. Prep the evidence. Get ready for a fight.

    No will stop them right now. But Im certain none of us will forget nor forgive.

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  • [–] 1 point 6 months ago

    Who wants to bet that Iran is able to get Intel from polymarket based on Trump's bets?

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  • 8 comments in c/politics@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 46 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    "WhAt CoUlD pOsSiBlY bE gOiNg On???!"

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  • [–] 7 points 6 months ago (1 child)

    Wacky hypothesis of the day: Iran and the US actually have an agreement, and part of it is transferring wealth to Iran via Bitcoin and prediction market bets on the markets that they control together via announcements.

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  • [–] 5 points 6 months ago (1 child)
  • [–] 3 points 6 months ago

    More importantly, perfectly legal. But there is no hope making this illegal right now.

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  • [–] 1 point 6 months ago

    Fraud. It’s mostly fraud.

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  • 5 comments in c/politics@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] 52 points 6 months ago

    Money laundering by insiders is what's happening. Doesn't seem super complex.

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  • [–] 45 points 6 months ago

    It should be pretty fucking obvious what's going on to anyone with two fucking brain cells to rub together.

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  • [–] 45 points 6 months ago

    Corruption. Corruption is what’s going on. It isn’t hard.

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  • [–] 17 points 6 months ago

    "What is going on?"

    Gee, that's a tough one, boss

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  • [–] 12 points 6 months ago

    They brought the swamp

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  • 4 comments in c/usa@midwest.social view that post
    [–] 7 points 6 months ago

    Insider gambling!

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  • [–] 13 points 6 months ago

    anyone who thinks the stock market is not a complete fabrication of reality managed by the extremely wealthy just are not paying attention.

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  • [–] 5 points 6 months ago

    Isn't it obvious? Jared and his friends are making bank.

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  • [–] 2 points 6 months ago

    The Guardian: If only some investigative journalism would happen we might possibly discover the truth but alas no one has stepped forward. We will keep reporting on the lack of reporting no matter what.

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