Trump treated Zelensky like a wet rag when he invited him to the whitehouse and Zelensky still willing to offer his first hand knowledge and experience of drone warfare.
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Ukraine is winning because they found cheaper drone defenses than drones...
Were burning thru our sophisticated interceptors because we're wasting them on drones 1/100th the prices.
Iran just has to keep pumping out the same drones they've been sending to Russia.
Like, Ukraine is literally the one government that knows how to win this kind of war.
Haaaaaaang on.
Are you saykng that Iran has been supplying Russia with drones, and now they'll be keeping them to use against the USA, for the explicit purpose of being destroyed?
So, wouldn't this mean Russia loses their supply? So wouldn't that mean it's actually in Zelenskyys best interest to NOT help the USA?
If USA ends their war quickly, Iran starts supplying Russia again with drones. But until that happens, wouldn't Ukraine have an easier time in their own war?
If USA ends their war quickly
The only way the US ends this war quickly is by retreating. Drones or not it's a quagmire.
War agsinst a non-nuclear state onlu needs 2 things to be quick.
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A shitload of nukes
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Someone in charge of those nukes who has no morals or empathy.
At this point, the only thing making the war take more than a day, is the fact that somehow trump thought better of dropping 4,000 nukes spread out over the entirety of Iran. They'd probably call it something like "Operation Scorched Earth".
Nukes risk triggering MAD, that's the end of the world
It does to a degree, but also the US would likely call China/Russia beforehand and let them know it's happening - assuming they go with ICBMs. US also has tactical nukes which are dropped from aircraft the outcry would obviously be huge, but I don't see it triggering MAD.
Iran has no nukes.
Nope but China, Israel, Russia, India and Pakistan all do and its probably unclear who the US would be launching at when they're all headed towards Iran. Lots of itchy trigger fingers around.
Israel is the only country even marginally close enough to be mistaken for the target.
And they would know we're not going to fire upon them. We're apperently sucking their dick politically.
None of that would make sense for any of those countries to think it's aimed at them.
Let me put it in baseball terms. You're looking at an infield pop fly, and worried that the outfielders might catch it. Or in the case of Russia, a fan in the upper bowl of the bleachers. The trajectory doesn't line up for that to make sense.
MAYBE Israel, but again, they know they're safe from us.
Depends on trajectory, to hit Iran, unless your going over the southern hemisphere, you're either passing over China, Russia or Europe / the middle east. At least for ICBMs launched from the mainland. I suppose there's nothing stopping a sub from launching a few miles from Iran's coast.
The USA is rapidly burning through munitions that Ukraine desperately needs. I suspect the loss of those anti air weapons etc is much worse for Ukraine than the small reduction in drones launched at them.
I honestly hadn't realised munitions were so difficult to produce. Everyone concerned about burning through stockpiles. I guess in non-war times you don't need the capability to produce a lot in a short time.
That's exactly it, yes. Modern armaments production is geared around low intensity conflicts and maintaining existing stockpiles. It's not set up for full militarization. That's a good thing in a lot of ways; economies geared for war end up needing war. But it means that even a nation like the US can only sustain a high intensity conflict for so long.
Iran is particularly taxing because they're focused heavily on the use of cheap drone munitions, which the US just does not have a cost effective way of intercepting. US air defense is still designed around shooting down expensive planes and missiles. Patriot is an incredible air defense system, but it's ungodly expensive. The whole system costs over a billion dollars, and the missiles are 4 million each. If one of those missiles shoots down a $50 million Mig-29, that's a really good deal. A $20,000 shahed drone... Not so much.
Russia is getting a huge advantage from the Iran-US war. Trump, as a Russian asset, had the excuse he needed to lift sanctions on Russian oil.
Ukraine needs to cut off Russian oil, which means stopping the Iran threat.
Yes, Russia will lose a part of their supply.
They will also gain a lot of money they can use to buy things from other places.
This was my first take too, but I think that was mostly true in the first years when the rot in the russian military was more prevalent. They have been steadily cleaning up and ramping up production across their MIC and they also have local Shahed production now set up by Iranian engineers afaik.
That means that the main limits on Russias ability to get drones is now primarily financial, rather than production volume. So while they lost some of their effective production, they have made so much money out of this, that even if it ends today, their biggest challenge, their economy, is hugely improved. If it continues, they will be able to afford even more production.
With the effectiveness of the Shaheds, I wouldn't be surprised if China is also pumping them out and Russia can buy them there. If NATO dumped a bunch of money into reverse engineering and setting up production, Iranian allies sure as hell should have.
For a relatively small nation like Ukraine, still standing against the full might of Russian agression after four years, is winning it.
Russia uses Iranian drones...
The price just skyrocketed and supply might go to zero if Iran uses all they can make
"Serious trouble" is holding the world's supposed second most powerful military to a gain of only 0.8% of Ukraine's territory after the initial invasion?
"Serious trouble" is a 27:1 casualty ratio in Ukraine's favor, with over 1.2 million dead or wounded on Russia's side?
If you believe that, I've got a bridge over the Volga to sell you.
Serious trouble” is a 27:1 casualty ratio in Ukraine’s favor,
Your other points are true. This, sadly, is not. The situation is at best 4:1, in bad sectors, 3:1. It also varies - wounded Russian soldiers tend to die of their wounds far more often than wounded Ukrainian soldiers.
However, if it was 2.7:1, it was too pessimistic.
Edit: link for people who keep downvoting without a clue. CSIS thinks the ratio is more pessimistic. They mention numbers like 2.1 : 1 and 2.5 : 1.
It is nice to know that it has gone exceptionally well for Ukraine in Kupyansk. Meanwhile:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-grinding-war-ukraine
Russian battlefield casualties and fatalities are significantly greater than Ukrainian casualties and fatalities—with a ratio of roughly 2.5:1 or 2:1.
That's the opinon of the Center for Strategic Studies.
“The areas which were controlled by Russia at the time of the declaration of annexation amount to more than 90000 km²”.
Internationally recognized area of Ukraine is 603628 km². Now learn to do the math, because “0.8%” is beyond delusional. The above figure grew since the declaration, too.
27:1 casualty ratio in Ukraine's favor
This is hilariously out of touch.
You should say that louder for the people in Moscow without internet.
You're probably the type of person to think the south was winning the civil war, until they didn't.
Russia's long term strategy ends in failure. Every week that Ukraine still exists, they are one step closer to losing.
Russia's equipment is finite, Ukraine's is not.
I'm with you until the last sentence. How is that true?
Supply lines and logistics.
Ukraine's military equipment is a mix of NATO surplus gear (ample supplies of such gear in most NATO countries, or found on the global markets), homegrown drones/missiles (can be replaced), and various other equipment for sale in the western MIC.
Russia's primary equipment is gear that was made in Russia or in former Eastern Bloc countries like Ukraine. Russia's equipment being finite comes from two things; they are burning through their vast Soviet surplus at a rate that is not sustainable, and their domestic and their domestic production of equipment cannot backfill those losses of the more modern equipment.
A bunch of the lynchpin systems Russia relies on cannot even be manufactured anymore, so when radar systems are destroyed, the replacement of such equipment cannot be easily done.
Where is China in your assessment?
For now they're essentially off the table. They seem to be supplying equipment and components not actual military weapons systems like AAA or APVs or things like that.
This absolutely can change in the future, but it's China's benefit to have a weaker Russia. So, they are making money but not directly helping Russia win. If that makes sense. At least that's what it looks like from my limited perspective.
Guys, in starting to think this president might be a Russian asset
Wait just a minute.
Just because everything he says and does is intended to benefit his Russian masters, it doesnt mean he's a Russian asset
Why would he go to war with Iran then. Iran have an alliance with Russia.
Because Israel did.
Because the war actually benefits Russia as it gives Trump an excuse to lift sanctions.
Because his advisors convinced him it was a good idea.
Trump is narcissistic and mercurial. He will change his mind depending on his mood and opinion about the person whispering in his ear
In the case of Putin, one minute he is openly admiring him, the next he is criticising him. Then he's back to appeasing him again. Like with the lifting of sanctions.
5 dimensional chess: He weakens the US so that Russia has a weaker "enemy".
My Trump is not a communist. He may be a liar, a pig, an idiot, a communist, but he is not a porn star!
Trump may be many things, but I do not want to live in a world where he is an asset.
trump already lifted oil sanctions from russia, hes going to abandon ukraine very soon.
Hasn't he done that already? What is the US doing to help Ukraine at this point?
I'm going to build the Trump Bering Strait Bridge, it'll be the longest bridge in the world, most advanced technology, nothing like this has ever been done before, it'll be beautiful, look - curtains!
Trump in a couple of months.
Cucked little bitch. Putin's dick is so far down his throat that he's able to fuck his breakfast Big Mac.
I still cannot believe that this pube-flecked chunk of human excrement won a second term. It's still genuinely sickening to me, like my stomach really feels like I'm perpetually tipping over the apogee of a rollercoaster when I remember what happened. His winning the first term was at least comprehensible, but I'm still punchdrunk from the shock of it all, even after all this time. And I'm not even from the US! I can't imagine what it feels like for the people who have to live there, especially those who aren't cis-white-hetero-males.
Anyone who has spent any time in the US shouldn't be surprised by him winning. It was and is still shockingly frustrating and disappointing, but unfortunately that's only because it's an emotionally difficult pill to swallow how awful so much of it is.
Sort of how no one is surprised when Israel bomb indiscriminately, the US invades/coups/bombs another country, Saudi executes a bunch of people, Russia is excessively brutal, massacres in African conflicts if not genocides and ethnic cleansing that most of the world ignores.
No matter how predictable, it is always shockingly horrifying, but not surprising.
JFC, HE CHEATED! Everybody knows it! He won EVERY swing states? That's was pretty much a statistical impossibility. They made no secret of it, both Trump and Musk both said many times that they intended to steal it.
All they had to do was flip one vote in seven states. That's how we ended up with MILLIONS of straight Democratic ballots, with Trump at the top. MILLIONS OF THEM! Who does that? Who votes that way? Have you ever met a person who voted straight Democratic, except for Trump? I've never met one, and I've never seen one on TV. That's because they don't exist, not in any significant numbers.
And the craziest thing is, they ONLY seem to exist in the swing states, because that vote pattern didn't occur anywhere else.
But as soon as the polls closed, the MAGA comedy act of Schmuck & Jeffries immediately declared Trump's victory "fair & square," abdicating their sworn responsibilities, and condemning America to the political Hell we are being dragged through.
If it was "fair & square," it was the first time in his entire life that Trump didn't cheat, and it is highly doubtful that he would choose the one election that would keep him him out of a life sentence in prison to finally play it straight. Does that sound like the Trump we know?
Quit doubting America, quit doubting Harris's campaign, and place the blame where it belongs - on Trump, and his evil cabal of corrupt, treasonous, pedophiles.
I always found it extremely gross that nobody even attempted to ask for a single recount. They just rolled over instantly
They have shown statistically that this happened in a number of swing states using the same tools that show it in Russia and Belarus.
Why do you say that? Americans not caring about democracy and freedom wasn't on my personal bingo card prior to the 2024 election so it did come as a bit of a shock to me.
It feels really bad. Like your neighbors betrayed their country for no personal gains.
I still cannot believe that this pube-flecked chunk of human excrement won a second term.
Defund education, control the media, manufacture consent, use others as scapegoats.
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