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Polymarket Decides Incentivizing a Nuclear Detonation Might Be a Bad Idea (gizmodo.com)
submitted 8 months ago by to c/latestagecapitalism@lemmy.world
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[–] 9 points 8 months ago

It's crazy to me how most folks participating in this have no self-awareness. Some humans are just fundamentally broken.

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    [–] [S] 12 points 8 months ago

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    [–] 6 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    This is just like the Fallout lore, except these guys don't have vaults to hide in

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    [–] 127 points 8 months ago (13 children)

    Bro working at Nuclear Missile Command: "I am gonna make so much money on this bet!"

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  • [–] 33 points 8 months ago (10 children)

    Money that won’t be worth anything moments later.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago*

    99 Jahre Krieg
    Ließen keinen Platz für Sieger
    Kriegsminister gibt's nicht mehr
    Und auch keine Düsenflieger
    Heute zieh' ich meine Runden
    Seh' die Welt in Trümmern liegen
    Hab' 'n Luftballon gefunden
    Denk' an dich und lass' ihn fliegen...

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago (6 children)

    I have little faith the international community would sufficiently sanction and punish this.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (3 children)

    It's ok, MAD will take care of it.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    Who exactly is doing the "Mutually Assured" part for Iran?

    If the US deploys a nuke in Iran:

    • as long as it's not an ICBM over adversaries, it won't trigger immediate response systems. Tactical nuke would probably be the choice.
    • Russia won't nuke the US back for this. China won't nuke the US back for this. Iran doesn't have nukes, though could do a dirty bomb or something -- but that's not consistent with MAD. Pakistan is cozying up to the US for their war in Afghanistan, and India isn't highly aligned. There's no way the EU would nuke the US in retaliation, they'd only deploy them defensively.
    • As much as I would want, I can't see Canada or Europe severing all ties with the US or going to war over it, which would be the only acceptable responses.

    I do not want the US to do this, they absolutely shouldn't, but I fear they could do it and it would stir up only a tepid response from protesters and not governments.

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  • [–] 10 points 8 months ago

    Well for one thing, if the US breaks the nuclear armistice then surely russia will point to them as they follow suit.

    Then Europe will be in the awkward position of deciding whether retaliation is called for. If they don't retaliate, putin keeps nuking ukraine. If Europe does retaliate, putin nukes NATO and the world enters a full-scale global war likely ending in nuclear armageddon.

    Any use of nuclear weapons in any context will have catastrophic results.

    Not that the current "leaders" of the US care about that at all. They'll hide out in their bunkers while we all fry for their piss poor decisions...

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago*

    Russia nukes Kyiv, China nukes Taiwan, North Korea (assuming delivery capabilities) nukes Seoul, India probably drops nukes on China and Pakistan, etc. It's the actual Domino Theory people were talking about during the Cold War, they just thought the domino was communism. Once the bandaid gets ripped off and nuclear weapons are an accepted and normalized tool of conventional war, they're now EVERYONE'S first resort.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago

    99 Kriegsminister
    Streichholz und Benzinkanister
    Hielten sich für schlaue Leute
    Witterten schon fette Beute
    Riefen: „Krieg!“, und wollten Macht
    Mann, wer hätte das gedacht?
    Dass es einmal so weit kommt
    Wegen 99 Luftballons

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    • [–] 57 points 8 months ago (13 children)

    How are these betting sites even legal I thought betting was illegal in most states

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  • [–] 48 points 8 months ago (6 children)

    Nope, sports betting was decriminalized a few years ago. And everything got so much worse.

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  • [–] 13 points 8 months ago (5 children)

    Especially since they also legalized advertising for gambling services.

    "Oh don't worry, just include a disclaimer about gambling addiction and seeking help and I'm sure everything will be fine..."

    ...while they promise free money and instant wealth to some of the most vulnerable and impoverished people in the US...

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (4 children)

    And... hate to say it, but there are a lot of people with 80-90 level IQ in the US. Many of them struggle with things like projecting forecasts, longterm planning. They are extremely vulnerable to these manipulative marketers.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (3 children)

    While true about the vulnerability,

    Did the IQ measurements change or something? I thought 100 was considered fairly intelligent, but lately I've seen multiple comments indicating that it's a lukewarm average and anything less is unintelligent.

    People use "room temperature IQ" as an insult, but I thought 70-80 was average and there's really no need for concern until you get below 60.

    Also, from what I can remember, IQ was calculated as some function of one's "mental age" relative to their "actual age," so it really doesn't mean anything beyond one's mid-twenties. It functioned mainly as an indicator of intellectual development among youths, relative to their peer group. And 80-90 would have meant you were above average...

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    100 is ALWAYS average for IQ. That's how it's meant to be measured. That's the peak of the bell curve. What is considered average might change over time if people in general get more or less intelligent, but the middle will always be 100.

    That said, take any IQ bullshit you hear with a grain of salt. Because it's bullshit.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    For some reason I vaguely remember learning something different than that, but I could be remembering wrong or maybe what I learned was bullshit. Oh well.

    But yeah, people tend to conflate intelligence with knowledge. You can find a really stupid person with a lot of knowledge on certain subjects, or a really smart person with little to no knowledge on some subjects.

    Being able to identify one's own lack of knowledge and intrinsic biases is an indicator of intelligence. But too many people treat the person who "knows a lot" (or seems to) as intelligent, even if they can't apply that knowledge in novel ways or perform abstract analysis on the things they know.

    Likewise, people tend to treat you like a dumbass if you don't know much about a certain subject, especially if you're willing to admit to it. They don't care if they can give you three basic facts and you can figure the rest out by logical deduction.

    Ignorance is a lack of knowledge, and is easily treatable once diagnosed (if one accepts the diagnosis). Stupidity is chronic, a lack of intelligence, and it can be managed, if the patient is willing to follow recommendations, but it can't be cured except in rare cases.

    But IQ is just a measurement, and its validity depends on the quality of the methods of assessment.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago*

    Trump is probably around 80, for reference.

    I agree with the criticisms below about methodology; IQ is ultimately a measure of how good you are at those particular tests. And multiple skillsets are tested. But it is valuable when you're talking about general trends or having a concrete point of comparison (for example, a certain individual compared to the general population).

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  • [–] 30 points 8 months ago

    You're not betting, see? You're buying/investing in a "futures contract" in an open market and there's no house edge!

    TL;DR it's gambling but structured in a way that evades current regulations.

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    • [–] 23 points 8 months ago (5 children)

    Hmmm. Not sure how perilous the denotation of a nuclear bomb may be but a detonation of one will be an absolute nightmare..

    (I bet the spell check missed it completely since both are correctly spelled, but of course context.. and is a perfect example of why actually proof-reading your work before you post it is advisable. Oyyy.)

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Right now a bunch of countries have operational nuclear weapons (and this ends in 1998). No one has used one in warfare since 1945 - right now there's basically a fragile truce on nuclear war. Putin threatened to use one but even he didn't actually pull that trigger.

    If someone does... then I expect everyone does.

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  • [–] 12 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    If anyone was dumb enough to use a nuke and also be proud... it will be trump...

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    • [–] 22 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    Our entire reality is run by bad ideas now.

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    • [–] 18 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Pure degeneracy

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    • [–] 6 points 8 months ago

    Why get a conscience now? Fuck it. All gas, no brakes, Root hog or die, Damn the torpedoes & always remember this kiddos.

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    [–] 6 points 8 months ago

    The Onion just can't compete.

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    [–] 5 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    It'll just be on some other platform. Gambling is spreading. It's in fucking everything now.

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    • [–] 16 points 8 months ago

    It is astonishing how much insanity we have to tolerate. It is quite evident that gambling is harmful for all, yet we do nothing but remain ageist against the minorities and barely solve the real issue.

    Things are escalating further and further. This isn't some regular gambling any more, it's a crime on humanity. Polymarket is the enabler, and as such should be banished. Incentivising peoples misfortunes is anti-humanity.

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    [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    Lame :(

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    [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    Oh naur, but we need to know about futures markets or whatever this betting site is pretending to be.

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    [–] 1 point 8 months ago (4 children)

    Anyone else wondering if this was a distraction from the other polymarket news related to Iran?

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Please, do tell.

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    • [–] -1 points 8 months ago

    I'd put money on "within 90 days". France just sent nuclear armed jets to its allies.

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    12 comments in c/aboringdystopia@lemmy.world view that post
    [–] [S] 47 points 8 months ago* (7 children)

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  • [+] -6 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Is there a need to quote the illiterate Hasan Abi?

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago* (2 children)

    It’s grifters only from now on. The nihilists have won. You shall kneel at the altar of celebrity for your twitch sponsored lobotomy and you will like it. Comment and subscribe.

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    • [–] 9 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Surprised they have any limits the things they have allowed recently.

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    • [–] 7 points 8 months ago

    Kinda funny. It would make sense if you believed they world would never get nuked to run the listing. They would constantly taking in money

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    [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    Finally an accurate headline for this tale...

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    7 comments in c/nottheonion@lemmy.ml view that post
    [+] 8 points 8 months ago (5 children)
    [deleted]
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  • [–] [S] 6 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    that isn't how prediction markets work; the house gets their fees regardless.

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  • [+] 3 points 8 months ago (3 children)
    [deleted]
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  • [–] [S] 5 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    I think it's actually maybe a bridge too far even for them - it reminds me of this scene in Bowling for Columbine where the brother of Oklahoma City bombing accomplice Terry Nichols reluctantly concedes that there should be some limits to the right to bear arms.

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    • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    Damn, easy win too, if it goes off nobody would be left to collect.

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