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[+] 205 points 8 months ago (13 children)
  • [–] 13 points 8 months ago (8 children)

    The price crash is going to be great. Such a massive yo-yo. Most of the AI companies will just completely eat shit out of it.

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  • [–] 17 points 8 months ago* (7 children)

    Yes and no. The hardware companies have already said that they’re not interested in expanding production. They know it’s a bubble, and don’t want expanded production now to cause a glut in the future when the inevitable pop happens. So prices may not actually drop, (even after the pop), because the companies still won’t be producing more hardware than they currently are.

    My best guess is that we’ll have some dark data centers sitting around collecting dust, but the hardware they bought won’t actually flood the market and crash prices. If anything, since the US dollar’s value is essentially tied to Nvidia and OpenAI’s market share, a pop will only make the dollar less powerful and will counteract any potential drops in prices that may have otherwise happened. The companies will get a trillion dollar bailout when the pop happens, (because they’re too big to fail) then nothing will change about the current hardware prices.

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  • [–] 7 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    All the ram being bought up is going to end up in the 2nd hand market as the hardware is all liquidated out. The prices will crash, and despite manufacturers not increasing their productions lines to build more ram, will still have to compete against themselves from the used market, meaning they won't be able to keep trying to charge crazy high prices.

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  • [–] 12 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    The problem is it's manufacturing capacity that is being bought. They're going to use that capacity to build HBM modules and data centre GPUs that cannot run outside of specialized servers. There will be a lot of high end gear gathering dust, but nothing you or I can use.

    Maybe if you're a large business/enterprise you could get some hardware on the cheap during the crash, but it's not ot like those things are full of DDR5 DIMMs and RTX GPUs.

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  • [–] 5 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Well that sucks. I dug into your info a bit as well, and it seems true. Registered ecc ram that servers tend to use won't work on consumer desktops.

    Good thing I don't plan on upgrading my PC for at least a few more years.

    As a side note, I'm pissed off the ram and storage inventory issue has delayed Valves new steam VR headset release. I've never bought VR anything before and was looking forward to it.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    It's not even ECC RAM that's the issue, it's that they're not making DDR ram at all, it's HBM RAM which is totally different. That and the GPUs are custom solutions that slot into specialty liquid cooled server chassis with proprietary connecters and everything. It's simply not for anything except for it's current purpose in a server.

    I know how you feel, it's too bad this is impacting Valve. I really want their new controller which won't be hit by this, but I expect they're still going to wait and release it with the other products.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago

    So prices may not actually drop, (even after the pop), because the companies still won’t be producing more hardware than they currently are.

    There's also the risk that they simply may not drop the price even after, because the customer base can bear that price, so it becomes the new normal.

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  • [+] 302 points 8 months ago (49 children)
  • [–] 41 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Yes there is: it's a Ponzi scheme (AI companies will fail when they get no new funds to pay off the stockholders)

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  • [–] 30 points 8 months ago

    I like electron finance

    Their exact location cannot be pinpointed; instead, they exist in a probability cloud where they are likely to be found at any given time.

    That's what this hype cycle is founded on. If I lend you $5, you have $5 you can lend further. Now, we each still have a right to $5, so we can lend that debt obligation again for $4.50. Now we have, somehow, a market value of $19.

    Until someone looks, then it's probably 0.

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  • [–] 21 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    It's a racket, plain and simple. There used to be laws against this sort if thing.

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  • [–] 134 points 8 months ago (28 children)

    It’s called Imaginary Economics.

    It tends to happen right before a capitalist system fails.

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  • [–] 70 points 8 months ago (20 children)

    It tends to happen right before a capitalist system fails.

    How often does this happen that we can claim this correlation? 🤔

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  • [–] 33 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    About once every 350 years... With a sample size of 3... 😅

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  • [+] -15 points 8 months ago (15 children)

    It’s about to. The very nature of it, means you can only have a sample size of one.

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  • [–] 21 points 8 months ago (14 children)

    And when do you predict this will occur? When should I have built my nuclear shelter so I know when to start building it?

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  • [+] -7 points 8 months ago (13 children)

    Too late for that I’m afraid. It already happened. It just takes a while before the [citation needed] folks understand that past performance is not a guarantee for future success.

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago* (12 children)

    Lol sure, any time now, just one more year bro, just one more year and it will collapse bro, promise.

    Maybe the usa will collapse a bit (because those people are often americans that don't know there are other countries out there) but that's another story.

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  • [–] -5 points 8 months ago (11 children)

    I highly recommend staying ignorant honestly. It’s a much lighter burden to carry than seeing all the datapoints and seeing the collapse as a certainty. Have a good life, seriously.

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  • [–] 12 points 8 months ago (9 children)

    if you want to be treated seriously maybe provide some proof instead of saying that you're attuned to all datapoints and can therefore see the future lol

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  • [+] -11 points 8 months ago (7 children)

    I don’t want to be treated seriously on this platform about that subject.

    If you’re curious you can find it but it won’t be thrown in your lap, as people would simply stop working/paying taxes or have children or fight the elites wars for them if the collapse data becomes widespread knowledge.

    But as I said, there is nothing serious about this, and the best advice I can give is to simply enjoy life and appreciate precious moments with loved ones.

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  • [–] 8 points 8 months ago (5 children)

    I don’t want to be treated seriously on this platform about that subject.

    Mission accomplished. You sound you're talking through a tinfoil hat.

    We ask explicitly for information because we want to know. We want enlightenment because we're not content with just living our lives in ignorance until the suffering starts, we want to be as prepared as we can for it. We have many years ahead of us. And you're purposefully withholding information because you "don't want to be taken seriously"? "On this platform"? For what?

    If you have this information, just provide it. Let us be the judge of what we want with our lives.

    What, you're withholding it because you don't have much time left in life and you just want to live calmly the rest of your days while we are slaving away for capitalism so it won't collapse during your lifetime? That would be very selfish.

    Please make sense of this. Thanks.

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  • [–] -1 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    Well you asked kindly.

    I don’t want to have a conversation about this, but if you study a little bit of (ancient) history, sociobiology, look at when our currencies became decoupled from gold standards, then take in the climate data, and our real economic data (not quarter returns of silicon valley, but real metric tons of food produced, how that supply chain works and how it is already being affected by climate change), then figure out where you are on the food order list, and how close you are to sea level. People in Sudan are already experiencing what will come to most of Europe in the next 1 maybe 2 decades. There is so much more to this, but you need a serious stomach to digest it all. I went through it once, and I wouldn’t recommend it, hence my reluctance to share or encourage people to go on this journey.

    The most important part is: we really don’t understand much of how complex the myriad of systems that are keeping us at this very nice level of living way above our means. But we do know everything is connected, and through Earth System Science we know that the collapse of a few pillars will cascade into other areas.

    Just writing it I can sense how you will push back that that’s not specific enough, and that’s fair, but the full picture took me many years, and I couldn’t point to a single piece of literature or data for you. If you want to know, you’ll find it.

    Also be mindful that this isn’t just a knowledge change, but a change to your belief system as well.

    But somewhere I think you do know or you wouldn’t respond like that.

    We have never in the recorded history of this planet have had an economy that is so vastly disconnected from the resource reality below it. We have never had so much poverty, poor education, healthcare for the lower classes against such an over the top wealth for the few billionaires. We have never been with this many mouths to feed. Most of us are now living in a world with 2 to 3 times as many people than when we were born. Housing and healthy food production did not scale at the same level. There are now more armed conflicts happening simultaneously than ever before. While that is all going on, the climate and our environment are basically done.

    1. CO2: 427.49 ppm (Dec 2025); May 2025 peak 430.5 ppm — first time exceeding 430 ppm. Rate: +3.75 ppm/yr, ACCELERATING (+0.160 ppm/yr²)
    2. Temperature: +1.34°C (2025, 3rd warmest). Three-year avg 2023-2025 exceeds 1.5°C for the first time
    3. Sea level rise: 4.5 mm/yr — doubled since 1993. Acceleration: 0.077 mm/yr²
    4. Carbon budget (1.5°C): ~170 Gt CO2 remaining (~4 years at current rate). Effective budget tighter due to overestimated CO2 fertilisation
    5. Planetary boundaries: 7 of 9 transgressed — ocean acidification confirmed as 7th (Planetary Health Check 2025)
    6. First tipping point crossed: Warm-water coral reefs at 1.4°C (irreversible)
    7. Ocean heat: 23 ZJ absorbed in 2025 (record, 9th consecutive)
    8. Fossil emissions: 38.1 GtCO2 in 2025 (new record, +1.1%)
    9. WAIS collapse precursor detected — all model ensembles show Thwaites/Pine Island collapse
    10. Methane: 1940.59 ppb (Sep 2025) — decelerating from post-2020 surge

    I want to believe in positive human collaboration. But absent a miracle and aliens landing with tech far beyond our reach or understanding, these changes are locked in. If we locked down the entire planet and froze the economy tomorrow, these metrics would not change by much.

    Most people on this platform will not grow as old as their parents are today.

    Enjoy your life, this amazing planet with so many wonders and beautiful people. Create close knit small communities. If you survive, it will be back to basics. Assuming you live in US/Europe, you might have another 10-20 years of relatively good life, though that might be optimistic.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    remember that the end of the world has been caluclated many, many times now. sometimes with vibes, sometimes with actual data, and so far it hasn't happened, somehow we keep on persevering despite everything

    however sure you are of your estimates, the world is to chaotic to ever truly know

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    I think there have definitely been times more grim than this, and we somehow made it through. Climate is a cycle, sometimes a change, life will go along with it, perhaps in another form, until the sun cannot sustain it anymore.

    I agree with your comment on every point. We can't ever know, and I think no matter how much data you collect you can't know for sure what ideas or agreements will happen in 20 years' time. Unless someone promises to nuke the planet in 20 years of course. Then again someone might probably assassinate that mf.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    Kinda weak sauce dude. It's just a bunch of stuff most of us already know. It doesn't account for how adaptable people have proven to be. It's far from inevitable that any of this will lead to permanent civilizational collapse. Though certainly the dudebro types like Fuckerberg think it will, but I think they're just paranoid, and not as smart as they think they are.

    I find it hard to take people seriously when they start their argument off with gold too. Gold is no different from fiat currency. It's only worth as much as people think it is. Historically it wasn't even used for anything practical. It's one of my smell tests for people who have bad critical thinking skills, quite frankly. If fiat currency was such a terrible idea then the whole world would be in far worse shape than it is.

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    Wealth, and by extension, education, and healthcare gaps have always existed. Probably in more tangible ways too.

    Rockefeller, Masu, Wu, Khan, and more are considered to have had more wealth than anyone alive today, and usually in actual ownership of tangible things. The poor of those eras were much more poor and much worse off in almost all aspects compared to the poor of today.

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  • [–] 7 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    I'm not holding my breath.

    We've been hearing about an AI crash practically since the hype train started.

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  • [–] 7 points 8 months ago

    People can see the trends and see how it will probably break down in some way, the problem is that the market can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent. It helps that these dipshits seem to have forgotten that money equals abstract resources and creating new resource issues that'll certainly put pressure on them in a more direct way either through legislation or via sabotage of required infrastructure.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (6 children)

    It’s shitty AI companies buying RAM

    It's greedy manufacturers selling it all to them in the first place and other market segments be damned.
    I'm no AI fan but the manufactures aren't angels either.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    If your boss offered you a raise for the same work, would you turn it down?

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  • [–] 0 points 8 months ago (3 children)
  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago (2 children)

    The money is fixed. You getting a raise means the money has to come from somewhere- which means the boss taking a pay cut or the customers paying more.

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  • [–] 0 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Still not the same, i don't work for any of those manufacturers - and if i did i sure as hell wouldn't care if their CEOs got a paycut to benefit the consumers. Won't someone please pity the CEOs...

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  • [–] 1 point 8 months ago

    I'm referring to the relationship between someone offering you more money for the same work the difference of which gets passed on to consumers.

    A few consumers are going to a business and offering more money for the same work. The consumer is the business's boss just like your boss might offer you more money. You aren't going to turn down the raise because it will hurt other consumers just like the business isn't going to turn down the money even though it will cost other consumers more.

    and if i did i sure as hell wouldn’t care if their CEOs got a paycut to benefit the consumers

    I brought that up because that wasn't going to happen. If you get a raise, your boss isn't going to take a paycut to make it happen. The raise comes from the consumers.

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  • [–] 70 points 8 months ago (11 children)

    Frustratingly this is not just affecting the current generation of devices, but the previous one too. DDR4 RAM (which I use in my desktop) has gone up 300% since I bought it a few years ago.

    Here's hoping that nobody needs to replace current or previous gen hardware if it breaks in the next 2 years...

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  • [–] 25 points 8 months ago (8 children)

    I overbuilt my system when I bought it and am glad I did. I also prioritize heat management.

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  • [–] 15 points 8 months ago (7 children)

    Yeah so glad I went with 32GB when ram was cheap.

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  • [–] 6 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    Same. Spent about 65 € I think, now it's looking like > 200 €

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    I bought some expensive ram back when i bought my current CPU to maximize Factorio and that was about 200 €. Don't even want to know how much it would be today. Also cheaped out and bought 16Gb ram for my home automation server last summer for less than 50€. Regrets hits me now as more would totally be better.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago

    Yeah even used ram is going for like 2x-3x the price I bought it at new. I just checked and similar capacity (4x 8GB) at lower speed (3200 compared to 3600) would cost me about 300-400€ now. And I paid about 70-80€ back then

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    Me too. But I learned a while back that my cpu or slots are fucked and I can only have one stick installed at a time.

    So I'm drowning in RAM that I cannot use. I could sell the RAM and get another motherboard but then I won't have the RAM!

    It's not fair.... It's not fair.

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  • [–] 53 points 8 months ago*

    I wish Sam Altman to encounter difficulties every time he had to use bathroom and increased chance of his phone fell to the toilet all the time.

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  • [–] 42 points 8 months ago

    My most recent hobby has been an old Suzuki Samurai that I dragged out of the woods a few years ago. It doesn't use much RAM. It doesn't even have fuel injection.

    I've also been getting back into archery with my kid.

    Honestly, the more I think about it, the more I think that making it harder to get a computer and play games is a huge miscalculation. If everyone is distracted by Call of Battle: Dutyfield then you have fewer bored assholes casting about for something to do, and if people can still play Factorio, you don't end up with bored, autistic, organized assholes casting about for something to do.

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  • [–] 81 points 8 months ago (4 children)

    Does this mean no smart fridges?

    Coz that would be cool

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  • [–] 43 points 8 months ago

    i'd be willing to suffer another year of ram shortage if that meant all smart devices fucked off

    maybe we could even see actual physical buttons on devices again! i miss buttons and toggles

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  • [–] 32 points 8 months ago (12 children)

    I would LOVE to believe this will force automakers to return to using buttons instead of touchscreen.

    Yeah, I know. But I'd sure love to believe it.

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  • [–] 19 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    I think this will be required to get full score on the safety test in Europe soon, so hopefully it can bleed into the global car market in a few years.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago

    They're going back to rotary dials in some cases because touch-only is bad for safety scores.

    As for putting everything behind a separate button again, that's just too expensive unfortunately. I wish they'd at least do it for premium cars, but honestly anything short of a Bentley or Rolls is still fairly buttonless.

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  • [–] 3 points 8 months ago (7 children)

    The number of touch screen clicks I need to turn my windshield wipers on is just plain dangerous.

    I’m old enough to remember a time when windows were rolled up by hand. It wasn’t perfect, but you never had to turn your car on again to deal with a window forgotten open.

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  • [–] 4 points 8 months ago (1 child)

    Wait, touch screen for windshield wipers‽ Fuck that shit. It's supposed to be a stalk opposite the turn signals because it's safety critical. What next, touch screen for your turn signals‽

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (3 children)

    a time when windows were rolled up by hand

    If you are talking about using the handle, then there are still plenty of cheaper cars that have that, depending upon where you are looking.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago (2 children)

    I don't think I've seen manual windows in a car for at least 15 years. My lowest trim absolute base model civic in 2012 still had electric windows and would have been the same for the whole gen so at least 2010 for Honda. My 03 Saturn ion had manual windows (and the little thumb stick for the drivers mirror, my bae) but base model manual windows were already on the way out around then, at least in the US.

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  • [–] 2 points 8 months ago* (1 child)

    The Slate Truck has them, so assuming that that goes into production, it'll be an example.

    The Slate Truck's base configuration, called the "Blank Slate", does not include an infotainment system, speakers, or power windows.

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