so unless the proposed attacker is the United States,

Now you are getting it

Your analysis ignores the concept of purchasing power parity (ppp). I linked a SIPRI faq page below, #12 explains the concept of ppp as it relates to military spending pretty well. The second link I provided shows 2024 global military spend figures that account for ppp.

TLDR: your analysis underestimates European military spend compared to the US but vastly overestimates European military spend compared to Russia or China.

https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex/frequently-asked-questions#PPP

https://militaryppp.com/blog/

Just assume you need one third of the US defense budget. All the rest of that money is just given to contractors for white collar welfare, CEO mansions, private jets, and lobbying for corporate interests. You can do just as well by not being bought by rich dickheads.

Now do the US since they're likely going to be the ones at the front of the attack on the EU.

That's the point he's making. Just subtly. As not to disturb the very thin skin of the US leader in charge of the world's largest active military with bases across the world.

They're spending the money on American weapons, tech and intel. If you remove America what are you going to spend it on? You have to invest in yourself and that takes time.

Has china even ever used their modern army in an actual war?

Trump's going to be warring on Canada, as soon as he tips from "democracy" into proper dictatorship, using Greenland as a base to seal-off Canada from all EU help ( the REAL reason he "NEEDS" Greenland ).

EU's .. abandoned by the Americas, right then.

Putin, backed by BRICS & his African allies, will be rampaging on the EU.

Now multiply that by NO supply of ANYthing from Taiwan, because China's going to be rampaging it while the West is .. occupied ..

The predictions about Russia's capability were grossly-wrong.

I'm betting that the predictions about convention/status-quo continuing also are grossly-wrong.

Regional-consolidation begins soon.

It'll take less than a decade.

The West chose to outsource all its key viability-capabilities ( Canada has zero chip-making capability, EU .. same? )

AFTER regional-consolidation, then region-against-region WAR will begin, in the 2030's.

_ /\ _

Synergy's the problem:

Synergy for the enemy, not for us.

Once Trump has used The Insurrection Act to enforce his insurrection against the US Constitution, giving him totalitarian dictatorship,

THEN he de-naturalizes all non-Republicans, suddenly turning 100's of millions into "illegals", & ICE's REAL purpose suddenly is born,

AND he annexes Canada, to enforce his continental-kingdom, using Greenland as a base to snuff Canada's EU-Lifeline.

Putin's war-machine is in dire economic straights, though!

Ah, but China will make Putin an offer he can't refuse:

Putin gets to play "Tzar", rampaging on Europe all he can, using all the scrounged-lives he can get ( POW's in China's possession will likely be a river to Russia, then ),

so long as he accepts China's supplanting Russians throughout Russia's government ( think "The Mongol Yoke, revised" ).

THEN, suddenly, the equation's sooo totally-different, that the EU's under DIRE existential-threat:

NO help, NO trade, from ANYbody outside the region, economy gutted, having to react 10x as quickly as EU-beaurocracy tolerates, & being butchered exactly as Zelenskiy warned, again & again.

From what I can see, it'll be 2nd-half of Feb when Trump finally claims his totalitarian kingdom, & begins his PURGE, that the Republicans have been planning openly for years ( their .. whatever it was, "Red Tide" or something? their revision of Caesar's crossing the Rubicon, was news, a few years ago .. it wasn't Project 2025, & it was related to "Red Caesarism" of the Republicans, but it was a specific highjack-the-country plan that had "red" in its name, sometime during the time since covid )

Anyways, the "playing board" that we're currently seeing, ISN'T the one we're going to be in, shortly.

Punctuation between Equilibriums!

This, current, equilibrium, is finished, now.

Prep.

_ /\ _

Rutte is an artist at that, but to be fair that is his job. "The Germans down and Americans in" I believe was the expression.

I think its the taint

You can’t. We can’t. We need each other,

Pretty telling were he sees his loyalty when he in fact should represent ALL of NATO instead of just the US.

France have an already active military doctrine involving some mini-nuke launch in case of someone crossing the line. It's the step before the total annihilation launches...

France and Poland could put up a fight I don’t think the UK really can, at least not a distant fight

Ukraina is holding-its-own ONLY because of the ocean-of-resources WE are pouring into Ukraina.

Trump's decapitating representative-republic from the US of A, next month, & acting on his already repeatedly-declared intent to coerce Canada into being his possession, using Greenland to snuff our EU-lifeline.

With China making Putin, currently economically nearly-helpless, except for all the African gold he's gaining, through his "Africa Corps" ( former Wagner ), with China making Putin an offer he cannot refuse, as soon as Trump declares his annexation of Canada:

Puting can rampage on Europe all he wants, using all the lives he can scrounge, so long as he accommodates China's supplanting Russia, throughout Russia's government.

( the "revised edition" of The Mongol Yoke, from Russian-people's perspective )

Since Putin only cares about himself, & he's got NO alternative, that's a DONE deal.

So, then Europe's on its own, against the combined-might of Russia's military-economy AND China's economic-force & authoritarian-gov't..

Totally different equation.

Further, launching nukes means BOTH sides get some nuclear-incineration, & massive nuclear-poisoning.

Putin's got less to lose: slamming Europe with nukes would suit him fine, right?

Europe, wanting to NOT have the world turned into a few glassed-cities with nuclear-poison all over the place ( no, 500 nukes couldn't destroy the planet's life, completely, not by a long-shot: they'd be used clustered, on high-value-targets ), is hobbled in a way that Putin isn't.

& that means that the war's going to be conventional, as long as the EU can prevent nukes from getting played.

_ /\ _

Europe is welcome to try. In fact, I don't think it is controversial to say it is preferable that they work towards that goal. However, that doesn't mean he and Trump are incorrect about the EU's reliance on the US military for defense. It was a decent plan for a long time but now we're seeing the pitfalls of allowing a single foreign entity to handle most of the continents security. The fact that Trump is a huge piece of shit doesn't change how much the EU has historically invested in defense.