It seems like you already have your pros and cons list. This kind of decision seems way too important to leave up to internet commenters with no other context about your life.

I'm the parent of a trans kid, I am not trans myself. We moved from a deep red state to Minnesota a few years ago, for reasons like yours, my sister and her wife made the move as well.

I can't tell you what the experience has been like for my son. I can tell you what it felt like from my perspective. The state we lived in is where our friends and family lived and mostly all still live. The state government was constantly coming up with new threats. Attempting to criminalize medical treatment for our kid. The school was... "Tolerant" but all of the actors didn't act when presented with the harassment my kid dealt with.

Everyone around us went about their lives as though nothing was happening, as my spouse and I felt the weight of a state government that ignored us at best and at worst seemed actively malicious.

The weight we didn't realize we were carrying constantly was enormous and it lifted quite quickly.

It was hard on all of us, making new friends as an adult (and in a relatively rural community) feels impossible at times. But I don't fear our state government.

There are resources in the cities for transplants, even if you make the choice willingly it's still a traumatic experience. You have to decide if it's worth it.

I live in a blue state at the moment and it’s honestly really great :3 lots of openly trans people galavanting around. Lots of fear still (we’ve had ICE incidents as well) but being in the large community is a huge relief

I’ve lived all over tho and it depends on where exactly you end up, too. You want to make sure you’re in a blue area of the state if you know what I mean

There’s definitely a lot to be said for staying where you are and keeping up the good fight. But don’t feel like you have to take the world on your back, you know? Trans people are a minuscule minority, we don’t really have the direct voting power to affect things that heavily. If you want to be a type of ambassador, and try to sway people by being awesome, that’s great. But living a joyful life is also a potent form of resistance, and there are still plenty or people whose minds you can sway in blue states. Even the most accepting places are still only like 60/40.

Ultimately I feel like there are no guarantees. Maybe you make the perfect plan in the bluest city in the bluest state but it turns out your neighbor is a transphobe and makes your life miserable. But in general I feel like my experience here is just so different from what I hear about other places. It’s a big decision, wishing you the best no matter what

Edit: Not trans, for context/transparency

Those first two pros, especially the second, seem really important right now. After moving it takes a few years to settle in get embedded into a new community. When civil protections fail community becomes more important. I want you to be surrounded by a network of people you trust. Though maybe you can convince some friends to move too?

How heavy is it going to weigh on you for the foreseeable future if you do stay? I don't picture any of this getting better in less than a decade, optimistically. There's something to be said for safety in numbers as well.

Definitely something you have to decide on your own in the end.

I live in Minnesota. I typically refer to it as a blurple state. Externally it may have seen as solidly blue but internally it's a bit more contested. Not uncommon for one of the chambers of the state legislature to be red (house is +2 R and senate is +1 D right now). Hasn't been a Republican governor in a while but it's not impossible.

It's still probably one of the safest states. The Republican party isn't as bad as in other places. Even if they gained power it's unlikely the same laws and policies other places are currently experiencing will be implemented here quickly.

The ICE protests will eventually end (Or we'll have much bigger issues on a national level). But Minnesota does have a lot of racial inequality and tension. There will probably be a continuing cycle of protest on those issues. Just hopefully not intentionally inflamed by the federal government. And honestly I think that's a good thing. People feel confident enough that they can protest and things will change. There's hope for a future.

There are places outside The Cities too. Rochester is a good size city and home if Mayo and has a surprisingly technology sector with IBM. Duluth is surprise maritime city in the middle of a continent but I don't actually know much about their economy or culture. Tons of medium to large towns. Honestly entirely too many for me to go over. Each of them unique.

You're not getting another fair election. Move to Europe or Canada.

Your community is your best defense against fascism. Giving up friends and family, especially right now, is a real gamble.

This really sucks, but now is the time everyone in every state needs to get together in every bit of free time they have, find out where your local politicians live and work and protest them day and night.

No one in any position of power should be able to rest when this is happening to your country. You all need to be a little more ‘French’ and make sure if you feel worried or unsafe your representative shoulders some of that burden.

Not trans, just an ally.