Not surprised. We are learning that we miscalculated the climate sensitivity. Alas, it doesnt arrive with a giant banner, kicking down the door but just slowly sneaks in and then refuses to leave.
If Mother Earth doesn't kill us, the ICE agents will.
a decade sooner than expected.
✨ FTE ✨
I live in Western Wyoming. It is the middle of January and most of my yard is grass. My lawn is supposed to be under three or four feet of snow. Instead, grass. This is all fucked.
I live in the Rockies. The mountains around me have been completely bare of snow for almost the entire winter. Like the peaks are just bare gray stone where the snow used to be year round.
I keep hearing people saying how sad it was they couldn’t ski this year because there was never snow… we basically haven’t had any winter/cold-weather at all, and they’re upset about skiing… I’m pretty sure there are more serious things to worry about.
Virtually every forecast assumed that humans would at least try to stop it instead of deliberately accelerating it in competition to squeeze every penny out of the planet first.
That's not a surprise. Experts always gave the most conservative assessment. They do that because they didn't want to look like they are alarmists and lose credibility. So everybody was conservative all the time, always calculating with the optimistic numbers and ignoring all possible feedback loops.
The predictions were always the most conservative estimates. They were trying to avoid panic. The most likely scenario was that this would all start and hit hard within our lifetimes.
There was never any question, the powerful have shouted down any more honest forecasts. Even the most pessimistic ones don't take into account the biggest feedbacks, like methane and co2 from the permafrost getting released.
To be clear, there is no predicting it, there are interconnected variables that we don't have numbers for, so it's impossible to accurately predict anything no matter how much computing power they devote to it.
What has been undeniably true in reality where we ignore the ivy league experts lying to us to protect their obscene wealth, is it will happen quicker than the models we are shown predict.
But worry not, we won't have to worry about it too much because the instability will give the worst people the ability to take over our societies and throw us into a dark ages first.
When I was getting my bio degree in the late 90's, early 00's we learned a lot of worst case scenario models for climate change, many of which seem to be coming to pass. Those scenarios were for ~2080 - 2100.
I’m feeling pretty smug about opting to not have kids between this and the fascism— though I admit I didn’t see the fascism coming when I got my vasectomy.
Half of my country is on fire rn
This is partly because the models have NEVER matched the data.
yt's "Just Have A Think" seems a good channel, for accurate information on global warming.. ( FAR better than MSM )
but there's a simple, blunt principle which has always been true, in ClimatePunctuations:
The SPEED of change goes from 0 up to maximum-speed-of-change, then back down to 0, at the new ClimateEquilibrium.
So, you get a BELL-curve, for the speed of change.
That's predictable.
Where are we on that curve??
In the still-accelerating part.
ALL the forecasts seem to ignore that, & intentionally-leave-out huge pieces..
Interior Antarctica is heating at 2x the speed predicted by the models, I read in 2025 or 2024.
They didn't include the freshwater from Greenland's melting until 2023 or something??
The "Cold Blob" visible from space had no explanation until then??
( what was icemelt supposed to do, except be
I've read that it isn't that the models are wrong, rather, it is that the data isn't agreeing with them.
Pseudoscientific bunk ( one of that yt-channel's videos mentioned a guy with ICC authority maintained the models are trustworthy in spite of the evidence contradicting them.. )
No, this is systemic intentional-ignorance, in ALL dimensions: government, "science"-institution, politics, economy, EVERYthing.
No matter: we're on-track for something like +9C, & that means that the US is going to have to rampage Canada, in order to have any place to live, right?
& same with India's population needing a new home, same with Saudi Arabia's, same with northern Africa's..
Basically, a region above, & a region below, the entire Equator may end up being uninhabitable, or the entire tropics, even.
As a former NASA Chief Scientist noted: Venus's climate IS a possible outcome.
The climate-problems we've got now, are NOTHING, compared with what they're going to be in another decade.
& again, the following decade..
.. until we reach the maximum-speed-of-change, & begin slowing-down the speed-of-change.
Since we won't allow slowing-down to begin, ..
.. then human viability may be off the table.
Whole-species DarwinAward, due to our political-motivation, instead of objectivity+practicality.
Earned, though: Universe IS honest, that way..
_ /\ _
Sure it is as much here as "acid rain" or ozone layer has right? Fuck off.
I'm always reminded of the scene in The newsroom, where they have the guy from the epa who essentially says it's already too late to save us from climate oblivion. They wanted him to calm the message and played down the doom.
That was from 2012.
Nothing has changed at all. Humans are rubbish at dealing with problems that are more than a year or so down the road.
No shit. I'm not trying to be a dick, but, like, we all see this.
Don't worry I'm sure it will fix itself if we continue to do absolutely nothing!
Again? Every few months, like clockwork, this is said. "The end is nigh" is now a trope. Reminds me of an old George Carlin line about people holding signs that say "Save the Planet". "The planet will be okay. You'll all be dead though, but don't worry about the planet. It'll do just fine". (Paraphrasing).
what's the news?
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