Maybe a small fraction would move to Mbin, but I doubt Lemmy and PieFed would see significant growth. I suspect most BlueSky users would move to Twitter, Threads, or Mastodon.

Most of them will probably go to Threads (because Zuck is a fact of life, like death and taxes, and already owns their Instagram connections) or to Xitter (better the devil you know, and all that). The fediverse is just too weird, between the multiple servers thing and the furries and preachy trekkies and weird customs like posting photos of flowers and not deadnaming people and stuff.

Interesting, we are seeing both reddit and bluesky having....issues...all around the same time.

Bluesky won't implode, at least not yet, and only a small number of its users would end up on the fediverse. I'm sure they'd love any of the sharkey/iceshrimp instances, if they could figure which one to join

Probably not. One of the main complaints of Mastodon I've seen on bsky is that it's "Twitter but run by Reddit mods" so I doubt they'd be interested in here.

I am glad Mastodon is semi-matured now. Unlike peertube and FB alternatives.

If the management on BlueSky is getting bad users could just move to another instance right? ...Right?

/s if it's not obvious

Imagine getting your worldview form reddit lmao

A bit late on the party, but while AT Protocol has greater potential for centralization, still it can be made decentralized, and so some new instances started appearing such as blacksky.community and deer.social. Also saw announcements for a "Northsky Social" and an "Eurosky", but neither launched yet. Still, new instances appearing would slow down an influx of new users to alternative platforms.