Say you're in a room with 400 ppl. 36 don't have health insurance. 48 live in poverty. 85 are illiterate. 90 have untreated mental illnesses. And everyday, at least 1 person is shot. But 2 are trans so you decide ruining their lives is a priority. That is what's happening rn

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[–] 100 points 1 year ago (1 child)

rn = 2.5 years ago.

It's become even worse.

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  • [–] 33 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (19 children)

    I wanted to look up the statistics for myself and see what the numbers are, given a room size scaled around 1 person dying from firearm related injury. I chose people dying from firearm injuries because I had a hard time finding a statistic for all people who were shot. If you are aware of better sources for my numbers (or a math error on my part), please let me know. I primarily used sources from the US government, but I recognize that those sources might not be completely transparent right now. Also, I don't mean for this to undermine the intention of the author here. Every issue mentioned is absolutely a problem in america, regardless of arbitrary comparisons. Also also, transgender people are valid and deserve rights regardless of how many people are shot per year.

    Say you're in a room with 2,584,401 people. 206,752 don't have insurance. 273,947 live in poverty. 542,724 are illiterate. 596,996 suffer from mental illness. And every day at least 1 person dies from firearm related injury. But 21,192 are trans so you decided ruining their lives is a priority.

    The population of the US was 341,140,964 on 12/31/24.

    92% had health insurance in 2024.

    10.6% lived in poverty in 2024.

    79% were literate in 2013. (Hopefully there is a more recent source for this somewhere)

    23.1% suffered from mental illness in 2022.

    132 died from firearm-related injury daily in 2022. This is the number from the CDC, which is more generous than gunviolencearchive.

    The number of injuries (including deaths) from the gunviolencearchive puts the daily count at 87 (I am rounding up despite 2024 being a 366 day leap year).

    0.82% identified as transgender.

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  • [–] 25 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (6 children)

    I appreciate the effort to improve the methodology. But the numbers feel too big to be grasped easily, compared to the original.

    Maybe the time frame can be changed? If we bump it to "1 person will be shot to death this year" it would make it a room full of 7080 people and 58 are trans

    Edit: full data set rescaled

    7080 - total

    566 - no insurance

    750 - poverty

    1487 - illiterate

    1635 - mentally ill

    1 - gun death per year

    58 - trans

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    I agree, that is absolutely a better representation of the data

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago

    Fine but nobody would care. Alt right enjoyers are way too deeo into "religious" amok to even get touch with reality again, not to mention trying to talk to them with statistics. they just don't care.

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  • [–] 8 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (6 children)

    I appreciate you providing sources, genuinely, though I will point out the way the US officially measures poverty is laughable bullshit.

    https://aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/documents/dd73d4f00d8a819d10b2fdb70d254f7b/detailed-guidelines-2025.pdf

    Yep, thats right, you live alone, and make or otherwise recieve more than $15.6k a year?

    Not in poverty.

    Also, the average paid rent in the US is ~1350 a month.

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/average-rent-by-state

    So... 1350 x 12 = 16,200, meaning a person below that is probably just literally homeless or nearly totally reliant on family or friends or the state for housing and food, as they have literally less than 0 money for food, on average, without some kind of assistance.

    I would argue the actual US poverty line needs to be drawn at between where 200% and 300% of the current poverty line is.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    That's not how averages work. The average "poor" person is not paying anywhere near the average rent.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (4 children)

    Oh, if you have more accurate and precise data, please do provide it.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    I know this one dude who pays $200/mo rent, but like what stat do we need here? 10th percentile of rent? https://personalfinancedata.com/national-housing-cost-percentile/?housing_costs=400&housing_type=1#results I found this, which suggests that 10th percentile is very close to $500/mo

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (2 children)

    These results are based off of individual samples from the 2013-2017 American Community Survey (ACS) and are weighted to represent all American households; however, due to contrainsts in polling and weighting of the survey results there will be some deviations from reality.

    So... yeah, this is not direct, actual direct rent data, its got who knows what kind of weighting manipulation going on, and its ~10 years old, and its spread out over a 5 year timeframe, instead of being specific to each year.

    I appreciate the attempt though, really.

    Like, I'm not trying to sound like an ass, I am an econometrician, it genuinely is difficult for a person to find high quality, freely available data on this topic that is not some kind of statistically or methodologically dubious.

    Doing statistics well, properly, is indeed quite difficult.

    If your data source ain't great, neither are your conclusions, GIGO.

    Anyway, broadly speaking, from 2015 to 2025, average and median US rent has something like doubled, and the other huge problem is that almost all the new apartments that have been built are all 'luxury' apartments, almost no one has built any affordable rental apartment housing in the last decade.

    Indeed, if you look into what is even classified as an 'affordable' apartment, you will usually find that this means something like "rent is 1/3 of 80% of the Area Median Monthly Income"....and then you go look at the population income stats for that area, and you see that something like 20% to 40% of people in that area cannot afford that.

    Meaning that 'affordable' apartments... aren't, really.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Yeh TBF I didn't look super hard for higher quality stats, but as you say, it's hard to get data. Ideally you'd want something comprehensive you could run ad-hoc queries on, but I didn't see anything like that 😅. I guess some subletting will be going on without any official paper trail, so the lower end of rent probably won't be visible anywhere (e.g. renting from relatives) -- I doubt there's any way to collate that data at all...

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

    Yeah lol, if you know one dude who is paying $200 for rent, in the US, he almost certainly has to not be legally on the lease, or at best, in some kind of run down old 5 bedroom house or something...

    And he'd almost certainly also be in a very low CoL state or city.

    Like uh, from what I can find, but also cannot source with total confidence...

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/average-rent-by-state

    The cheapest studio apts in the country are around $650 a month, in like... Nebraska, slightly less in South Dakota.

    The average cost rental price is $1325, but thats average for all areas, all kinds of apartments... my guess would be that average studio apt rent over the whole US is... about $950 - $1150?

    I dunno, I'd have to pull in all their data sources and do my own calculations.

    I cannot vouch for having personally validated the quality of these stats, but uh yeah.

    And yeah, it is even more difficult to find actual data like this that also takes into account household size and income, all in one data set, also including and accounting things like all the varying kind of rent subsidies... so that you can actually do the income differentiation thing my original critic threw out as if this was trivial.


    Also, its worth noting to my original comment... I did not include rent insurance, water, power, gas, other shit like pet rent, internet, phone, the fact that broke people likely have evictions from being broke and can thus functionally basically never rent again from the vast majority of landlords, they dont have the savings to put down a deposit and first months rent...

    ... and basically most of the funding that went toward gov and non profit rent assistance programs and pathway out of homelessness programs just got cut by the Trump admin.


    Also, also: If data on a topic doesn't exist, then, to privileged, data wonk type people... the problem doesn't exist, is theoretical.

    One death is a tragedy, a million is a statistic, 10 or 50 million for whom we just don't bother to adequately study is a reason for me to be dismissive of the notion that anything could be wronf.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago

    Huh. So 45,625 killed by guns each year, about 1/10th of 1% but since people live longer than a year, I wonder what the lifetime risk is? Surely nowhere near risk of being killed by a car but probably much higher than the 1/10th of 1%.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago* (2 children)

    Is this really important? Feels like it's missing the point. When communicating information compromises between factuality and bandwidth must be made. OOP gets the point across and has emotional impact. Even I didnt read half what you write. Nobody ever checks sources.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    Nobody ever checks sources.

    I don't disagree, but it is a shame.

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  • Right but being more technically correct does not make you a better communicator or more likely to be listened to. Creating approximately correct-ish ideas in the minds of your audience to counter absolute fictions is much more important unless youre in a lab or talking to an engineer about engineering.

    Precision and rigor have negative rhetorical weight.

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  • [–] 24 points 1 year ago

    Don't worry, the fascists will be going after those with mental health issues next.

    It's already starting.

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  • [–] 23 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

    In other news, the Kirk Memorial was basically a Nuremberg rally.

    Wheee yaah... this is not looking good.

    EDIT:

    I would describe this youtuber as an actual, genuine centrist, not a crypto nazi, got a lot of sensible ideas and some ignorant ones... I use him as a barometer for basically non brain poisoned normies who have a college degree and a functioning brain, but also come from a blue collar area and are ... more culturally traditional.

    Basically, a guy who is kinda problematic if you do a deep dive, but you could probably have a beer with and be reasonably good to ok friends with.

    And he is in horror, reviewing Miller's speech.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KSYjqB_Q-8

    The... original intent of his channel was a travel channel, showing people how US life compares to working and living overseas.

    EDIT 2:

    Large Man here missed this, but I will point out that Miller saying 'We are the storm' is an obvious Q Anon reference.

    Like I said, he's not internet brain poisoned enough to know.

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  • [+] 48 points 1 year ago (21 children)
  • [–] 7 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    If I did the math right, for one person to be shot per day, we're starting with a population of 10,440,000, not 400.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    I worked the math out to be one person out of 400 shot to death either by murder or suicide every 17.12 years. Definitely not every 21 days, but it is still actually crazy when you think about just how few 400 people is.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    That sounds about right. About 1 in 87 will die from suicide in general. 1 in 57 will OD. 1 in 6 from heart disease; 1 in 7 from cancer.

    1 in 156 will kill themselves with a gun. 1 in 238 will be killed with a gun. (This includes FAFO deaths that could be prevented if people understood that a lethal threat justifies a lethal response.)

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  • [–] [S] -2 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (13 children)

    I don't think it was trying to be factual, but more trying to make a point.

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  • [+] 42 points 1 year ago (10 children)
  • [+] -8 points 1 year ago (7 children)

    You’re focusing on the wrong part of the post. The point of the post is that despite all of these horrible (and for a lack of a better word, fixable) things going on in the world right now, people are wrongly focusing on trans people as a problem.

    Also, there is such a thing as hyperbole, and it doesn’t mean that the point is invalid; instead it’s used to emphasize the point.

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  • [+] 17 points 1 year ago (6 children)
  • [–] -4 points 1 year ago (5 children)

    Not everything needs to meet scientific rigor. If that were the case, you would’ve provided me with at least three scientific studies demonstrating your side of the argument. But you didn’t, because it’s wholly unnecessary for a normal conversation.

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  • [+] 10 points 1 year ago (3 children)
  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    If that’s the hill you want to die on, that’s your prerogative, and I won’t fault you for it. I do disagree with you, but I also appreciate your time discussing this with me and challenging my assertions.

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  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago

    "Being blatantly wrong is fine, as long as you have good intentions."

    The average person in the USA only makes $140 per year. Well, it's not really that bad, but it draws attention to wage inequity in the USA.

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  • [–] 28 points 1 year ago (19 children)

    In a population of 400 people, 1 person is shot every day? So, by the end of one year, the population is down to 35 people?

    If we extrapolate to the US population, we end up with 900,000 people murdered per day, or about 330 million people per year. That doesn't seem quite right.

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  • [–] 17 points 1 year ago (9 children)

    One person is shot, not one person is killed via shooting.

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  • [–] 15 points 1 year ago (8 children)

    Fair enough. So, at the end of the first year, there are at least 365 bullet wounds among 400 people? Every year, 330 million Americans are treated for bullet holes?

    The math suggests I should be surviving a gunshot wound every 16 months or so. That doesn't seem to match my life experience.

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  • [–] 4 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    I looked up an actual statistic and it was way fewer than 1/400, so yeah. Though I do think the point about not everyone having the same experience bears thinking on, regardless of the screenshot's accuracy.

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  • [–] 6 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    Some people get shot more often than others, mainly those living in poverty because they are forced to live in bad places, also most of them are black and shot by the police frequently

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  • [–] 8 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    I'm more concerned about the lack of basic arithmetic literacy at this point. There would probably be a fair bit less poverty with a broader understanding of numbers.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)

    Maybe, I'm not sure what would happen if literacy and math skills rose globally.

    After thinking about it for 30s (so my point is not very thought out), I think it would impact poverty, but not for the reason you think, I expect people would vote differently, and that would have an impact on poverty. I don't think it would reduce poverty because people would spend more wisely, poverty imo is not a lack of management, it is a vicious circle you can't easily escape.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago

    I think it would impact poverty, but not for the reason you think, I expect people would vote differently, and that would have an impact on poverty.

    That's actually exactly what I think. A much greater focus on facts and figures. A whole lot less emphasis on feels.

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  • [+] -7 points 1 year ago (7 children)

    The math is not the point here...

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  • [–] 12 points 1 year ago (3 children)

    Are you sure? Based on their argument, I'd say "Mathematical Literacy" is the only priority we should have right now.

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  • [–] -2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    I'd say this shows exactly what's wrong. People discussing the details (although important details), but the real issues are ignored, almost like the mistakes are made on purpose to sow discord

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  • [–] 5 points 1 year ago

    The math is a pretty big point, seeing how the post focuses on how few trans people there are compared to the other mentioned groups (the figure for "people shot" is only 1 - but the post claims it happens every day)

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  • [–] 9 points 1 year ago

    It's called scapgoating.

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  • [–] 22 points 1 year ago* (3 children)

    The room has a >91.25% annual shooting rate?

    I don't want to brag, but I've been living in the United States for 25 years and I haven't been shot once. If the room resets annually, my odds to this point were 3.55x10^-27. Am I the last American?

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    [–] 5 points 1 year ago

    it's not really about trans being bad moreso that they feel tremendous shame for being the largest consumers of trans porn. A lot of the men on the right are closeted as hell.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago (1 child)

    Not diagnosed, diagnosed, or self reported as mentally ill? Seems low.

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  • [–] 3 points 1 year ago (2 children)

    Err, that's a nice little quip but that bit about shooting isn't even remotely close to reality.

    Example: There's about 80,000 - 100,000 gun related injuries in the USA per year. That's about 250 people getting shot each day. However, we are working against a population of ~330,000,000 in the USA. If you take the 100,000 / 333,000,000 = 0.0003. That's 0.0003 per year per person. So the chance of a person getting shot in a year in the USA is about 1 in 3,330.

    To look at this in another way, the fellow said there's a group of 400 people and 1 is shot each day. That means in 1 year, nearly everyone in the room would have been shot, and in 2 years some people would be shot twice.

    Look, the USA is pretty disgusting with some issues, but if you want to throw numbers around, at least make them accurate, otherwise it undermines the whole argument.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago (1 child)
  • [–] 2 points 1 year ago

    You don't think it's important to know the ACTUAL numbers when discussing issues?

    If I said 50 million people were eaten by sharks each year and tried to convince my local town to ban swimming, don't you think it's important I get the number right?

    The numbers presented in the original quote were basically off by 1000x. We're not talking nit-picking here. It's off by orders of magnitude.

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  • [–] 1 point 1 year ago

    sounds like battle royale from hell

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