It's looking good for her!

Last week, the New York Times published an analysis of ranked-choice ballots cast in Alaska, showing that Peltola likely would earn more votes than Sullivan should the race advance to ranked-choice tabulation. Each Alaska voter got to choose up to two candidates out of the four Senate candidates on the ballot, with each choice ranked as the voter’s first or second choice.

Two-thirds of Daniel J. Sullivan’s supporters ranked a second choice, with most of those voters supporting Ms. Peltola in subsequent rounds — an indication that they were not intending to vote for Sen. Dan S. Sullivan, as voters who chose the incumbent senator first rarely ranked Ms. Peltola second.

https://ictnews.org/politics/election-2026/alaska-senate-race-tipping-toward-peltola/

https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/peltola-leads-both-sullivans-combined-as-she-heads-to-victory-in-alaska-contest/

More vites from "the other Sullivan" go to Peltola than to Sullivan + she will probably win befor RCV.

That's true if you just add percentages. But ranked choice includes the possibility of "exhausting" your ballot by just not listing a second or third or fourth choice. That's how Peltola won her house seat initially. When you think about it as a vote gap of 4000ish votes with 9000ish votes to be gained in arbitragr, Dan has to win about 50% of all of those ballots. He'll almost definitely get 50% of the non-exhausted ballots, but the analysis I've seen of the RCV results released to date shows him falling well short so far of 50% of all ballots once exhaustion is accounted for

Agreed; I was surprised to see it come so quickly. I think this is a combination of:

• Knowing there's no way to victory in the courts.
• Following the herd of the rest of Republicans federally; if she's basically the only one standing alone crying fraud, it's probably not going to win over much public opinion.
• The fact that contesting this would probably only bring more attention to how voting in Mississippi is already heavily rigged in favor of Republicans, e.g. the purging of voter rolls. (Edit: And wanting the fire around this to die down for the 2028 election season.)
• The possibility that Colom's lead is still going to increase from here, given how he's been outperforming on affidavit and absentee ballots.
• Her not wanting to drag this out any longer, given she did just lose her Senate seat from Mississippi to a black, Democratic man.
• (Edit: @2ndDegreeOWO@lemmy.world correctly points out a huge one I completely missed: hella money.)