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AI bubble burst this week? part 2. Anthropic has some stress (lemmy.ca)
submitted 1 day ago by to c/technology@lemmy.ml
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Today's AI sector market crash is not about Democrat victory.

ANThropic is getting told to value their IPO at $1T. Down from $2T initial hopium.

In Q3, when backing in capitalized training costs, they lose 33c for every $1 of revenue.

The bigger problem for any hopium is that they bragged about a $65B ARR in July, but the full quarter (Q3) was only $16.8B in revenue, which is flat $67B ARR. Their amended S1 filing also chose to leave blank the October revenue/ARR number despite them knowing it on Nov 2 amendment date.

since Sept 22, ANT released opus, sonnet, haiku 5.5. All well received high performance/value models that are decompiling/cloning the world. This plan was supposed to juice revenue numbers because new models always get more usage, if only to test how $60 can make a gta 0.1 clone. The July ARR boasting came off Fable, sonnet, claude 5.0 release schedules, and peak tokenmaxing mantra.

ANT revenue stagnating, and $1T valuation impacts previous OpenAI related bubble pop post, in that OpenAI's fundraising at $1.25T valuation was based on it having that ratio compared to ANT at $2T. OpenAI cannot raise money at fair ~$650b because that is a down round, and previous investors get to take more of the company for free.

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[–] 14 points 1 day ago

It's gonna be one hell of a market correction.

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    [–] 22 points 22 hours ago (3 children)

    Snarky comment incoming:

    And this is how jargon is used to exclude an out group from the in group.

    While being interested in the topic, I understood nothing of this post.

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  • [–] [S] 5 points 16 hours ago

    ARR: anualized revenue run rate. An "unofficial accounting number" with no standard base period. By bragging about $65B(illion. T is trillion) in July, the start of their third fiscal quarter (Q3), and whole quarter showing no revenue growth, it gives a bad impression for the company.

    IPO: Joining the stock market day. Valuation is number of total shares * price per share at open. S1 is the paperwork they have to fill prior to that day. They get to file their homework in draft stages until the SEC (government) accepts it as complete. In previous drafts of their paperwork, they had left a line with October revenue was ______ . They did not fill in that blank on Nov 2 when they did disclose a lot of info. Certain reason is that the number looks bad.

    rest of the acronyms/words are company and names of models released.

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    • [–] 6 points 21 hours ago

    Clammy Sammy and Wario Amodei's garbage super duper unprofitable startups are not growing in revenue when they REALLY should be right now with how much hype they've been seeding the past few months.

    This especially does not bode well for the value of their IPO (starting to sell shares of the companies) that they're gunning for at full blast.

    The blueclear winter in the USA and their tough stance on AI datacenters should also cause a lot of boots to quake, as Anthropic (and probably OpenAI) have signed 12 digits worth of uncancellable contracts for compute from datacenters that for the most part are still under construction.

    Don't have my sources at hand, but I got a lot of this info through the links and analysis of Ed Zitron. Should you be interested in reading more, you can find him in interviews or on his newsletter https://wheresyoured.at

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