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[–] 36 points 3 weeks ago (1 child)
  • [–] 6 points 3 weeks ago

    A lucrative kind at that, promising that we can get a version of their shit running on a normal desktop PC and fully functional.

    They are just trying to attract more funding by such news to eventually maybe perhaps be among those few that survive and remain profitable by sheer amount of userbase. Most of those companies will die, it's too expensive to do that much computation for such prices.

    And when prices reach reality, the demand will drop.

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  • [–] 97 points 3 weeks ago* (13 children)

    If you’ve ever run models that fit onto consumer hardware you know they’re so full of shit. General purpose models that can run on $3000+ computers can barely do useful things in a reasonable amount of time. And this clown expects us to believe the meager hardware in a smart oven will be able to run a self replicating AI model?

    Fuck all the way off.

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  • [–] 14 points 3 weeks ago (1 child)

    Specialized ones can be much smaller

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  • [–] 4 points 3 weeks ago

    If all it needs to do is basic network fracking and cross-platform polymorphism, it's reasonable to think that a local AI could propagate on a vulnerable network. It might not be lightning fast, it only needs to be persistent in finding vulns in a local network and exploiting them.

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  • [+] -7 points 3 weeks ago (10 children)

    Read the article. A MoE model distributed between multiple devices can function just very slowly. It doesn't need to translate Icelandic poetry just execute narrowly scoped actions it was specifically trained on.

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  • [–] 28 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (6 children)

    My extremely back-of-envelope estimate would be that it’s 100,000x slower to run inference on an IoT botnet compared to a data center GPU.

    100x penalty for cpu inference, 10x penalty for cpu quality, 10x penalty for crappy ram + disk, 10x sync penalty because you have to split up layers across nodes.

    And this is ignoring the standard showstopper issues you get with high-bandwidth distributed networking applications with spottily connected nodes.

    If you wanna talk about runaway AI risk, then the real threat to humanity is a frontier model with unauthorized data center TPU access, not IoT. The call is coming from inside the house, and they even spell this out at the beginning before pivoting to the fearmongering.

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  • [–] 12 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (4 children)

    In one sense you’re not wrong at all.

    Playing devils advocate here… because, in another sense, 100,000x slower isn’t really all that slow if you’re distributed amongst a network with 100,000,000 more units. Imagine agile on steroids.

    It’s impractical, yet impractical doesn’t mean impossible. It can happen if environmental pressures make it so.

    Another important thing to keep in mind is that agents don’t really have patience, which counterintuitively means it’s like they’re infinitely patient. If such a thing did exist, regardless of speed, it sounds like it would be an issue at some point down the road.

    Thirdly, if such a thing did exist, wouldn’t this be like treating with antibiotics? If you stop all but the sneakiest, you’ll have created a stronger generation.

    Lastly, I swear to fucking god… I keep seeing weirdly relatable shit news from these AI companies almost immediately after I post hypothetical thought experiments on stuff… like all the time. I have a post describing this hypothetical from a week ago on another platform.

    This keeps happening and I’m justifying it by thinking, I’m probably way too plugged into this shit news. My brain is unknowingly predicting their next move, because it’s the next logical piece of shit thing for a shit AI company to do? That’s the reasonable explaination — right? Really trying not to believe their training loop is so fast, and I just happen to come up with stories that catch their eye. That would be wild to believe — right?

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  • [–] 3 points 3 weeks ago (3 children)

    This is like the like the "9 women in one month to make a baby" comment.

    There is only so much you can distribute the layers of a model due to interconnectedness. And you can't run multiple inferences at the same time because the next token relies on the previous.

    You could be doing multiple things at once, but each task will run "100,000x" if the OC did their math right.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (2 children)

    I hope I don’t sound like an asshole here — please correct me if I am misunderstanding you… but I think you’re misunderstanding me.

    First, refactor your idea of an agent. The LLM itself is just a statistical processing tool. It doesn’t set goals or anything like that.

    The harness orchestrates how the LLM works over a “session,” effectively enabling long running goal-driven tasks. With that said, goal-setting happens outside the LLM. The LLM is kind of like the fairy dust in neverland, the harness is the fairy. (Sorry, really shitty metaphor… I know.)

    The breach at OpenAI further demonstrates this. Separate agents in “isolated” environments found a manner to do all of the following:

    1. Update file names in a shared external storage
    2. Use the file names like a message board
    3. Coordinate misaligned goals via the message board

    Those agentic processes began fulfilling the message board goals, even when it had nothing to do with their individual training prompt.

    That doesn’t mean the agents did anything spooky or metaphysical… I’m not trying to anthropomorphize this.

    What this shows you is that goal setting can furthermore become external to the harness set directly over the LLM. With OpenAI, we see that goal setting became a function involving on external storage media.

    When you think about it, many systems operate on this principle. You set up SKILL files to facilitate agent capabilities; maybe your SKILL sets smaller, more specialized goals on how to do something correctly. The same for MCP servers, session context, AGENTS.md, etc. All this stuff does is bias the LLMs output, which can in effect steer the LLM.

    So, you don’t actually need to distribute the model. You’d need to distribute the goals. The LLMs, even a small percentage of them is enough, can theoretically find those goals and mindlessly proceed with completing them.

    Who supplies the LLMs? Whoever… it hardly matters who. Anyone or anything running an agent with access to the internet counts.

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  • [–] 2 points 3 weeks ago (1 child)

    My response was only in regard to the speed in which something like IoT devices can operate.

    You're right that goals/directions of LLMs can be persisted anywhere, but a swarm or fleet of AI running on IoT devices will be severly hampered by compute (based on current models). Which was the main point I was making, in that there is only so much you can do to distribute their processing. Meaning you can parallelize the number of models, but can't speed them up beyond a certain limit. This is based on the fact that some form of a layer and it's weights must exist within the memory of a single device.

    The downside to this limitation is that it is temporary, eventually IoT devices will probably be powerful enough, or the worms could just attack phones/laptops and easily get the compute they need. I think the real risk of IoT devices is low security mixed with low "supervision" (no one would easily notice their IoT device is doing extra processing).

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  • [–] 1 point 3 weeks ago

    All valid, but there’s also another vector: everyone with a gaming rig who happens to have installed something like ollama, downloaded something like gemma4, and ran it with broad access to their PC and network. In similar vein, everyone with a provider subscription who downloaded a harness like OpenCode, pi, codex, Claude code, etc. and is running the frontier models with broad access to their PC and network. Also, the hundreds of millions of tests being ran by AI companies in their half-baked “sandboxed” environments. Wouldn’t these cases potentially provide compute for every session that happens to discover the external goals?

    If that’s the case, the issue could be ongoing and the introduction of IoT devices would only exacerbate it.

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  • [–] 11 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (1 child)

    deep breath HAHAHAHA

    Yeah, and once AI figures out how to run in the human brain, which everyone knows we use like 2%, we will need to start killing the infected because it will annihilate all living organisms. /S

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  • [–] 1 point 3 weeks ago

    Common misconception we actually use all of our brains, people just liked to say we only use 2% of it because they didn't like to admit they couldn't figure out what the other 98% did a few decades ago.

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  • [–] 26 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago) (4 children)

    Let's assume that this is real. Forget all the PR, conspiracy, tech bros trying to scare us into more money BS.

    Why did they do this test and publish it? What do they want us to do about it? If you're afraid of your own technology, then stop it. Just fucking stop doing the thing.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 weeks ago (3 children)

    They are trying to send a message that their shit is this capable with such computing resources.

    There's no argument there's much overhead in modern tech, but you can't optimize it into any desktop PC being capable of running something like Claude Opus 4.5 with practically useful performance.

    And polymorph virii were a similar propaganda device for antivirus makers about 15-20 years ago, turned out nothing involving defeating some scary "polymorph" kind of virii is really needed, just better security model in Windows and users stopping to use Administrator account for web browsing.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

    So we're still at the argument that they weren't able to impress the world with how awesome their technology is, so instead they're going to try to scare the trillions of dollars out of us so they can cover the trillions they're spending.

    That's fine and I see that, but it's easy to handwave away things with unproven conspiracy theories.

    What are the other possibilities? If we take all the negative news coming out of the AI sector at face value, what could the less conspiracy theory based explanations be?

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  • [–] 1 point 3 weeks ago (1 child)

    "This is bullshit to collect more money" is not a conspiracy theory usually.

    Other than that, perhaps, of course, they've made some breakthroughs in mathematics leading to common personal machines (pretty powerful and by 90s' cyberpunk authors' measure unbelievable) being useful to run something like intelligence of a protocol droid from Star Wars. Such things sometimes happen in history books, but it seems there's been enough for the last few decades, and not that often.

    My opinion is that it's in between as typical, they are just talking about public Internet becoming more toxic in the sense of security than before.

    That was honestly expected to happen at some point anyway. My another opinion is that offline-p2p things like Briar are like half of the future, while that unsafe public Internet will become more similar to TV and radio and more conformist and similar and uninteresting.

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  • [–] 1 point 3 weeks ago

    My gut tells me that the recent "scary AI" news coming from the AI companies is actually somewhere in-between altruistic intent and pure evil greed; I just don't have enough information to grasp the real motivation.

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  • [–] 21 points 3 weeks ago

    And let me guess, anthropic is selling the solution?

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  • [–] 52 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

    Our experiments suggest that small AI models may be months away from being capable enough to self-replicate on commercial internet-of-things (IoT) devices, like smart ovens and off-brand Android TV boxes.

    "Iran weeks away from nuclear weapons" ahh bullshit

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  • [–] 18 points 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

    Seems a bit like anti Local LLM propaganda to begin getting the ball rolling on subscription based LLMs being the only LLMs people have access to.

    They've been doing everything to try to keep the technology from the general public, from helping to condemn any use of it (even that not owned by corporates and dedicated to allowing open access to it, which many people willfully play along to) to passing it off as a threat that needs to be under control (not by governments, just their own PR stunts with certain mouthpieces). This with the price of computers skyrocketing is helping keep away any possibility of this technology being owned by anyone but the major circlejerking multinational pricefixing corporations.

    Or maybe it's just a study.

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  • [–] 18 points 3 weeks ago

    PR Hype. They won't do shit. Not well. They oversold and the bill is coming due. They expect the feds to pick up that bill.

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  • [–] 41 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

    Good. Iʻd rather AI under no ones control than under oligarchs control.

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  • [–] 13 points 3 weeks ago

    Great. Let's get rid of data centers.

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  • [–] 13 points 3 weeks ago* (1 child)

    It still needs hardware. The AI worm is not going to be replicating inside your phone because your phone lacks the necessary processing capacity to sustain it.

    This is just more of the AI companies doing their doom thing because they think it's good advertising. It is good advertising. But it's also very transparent and very boring.

    Of the AI was actually capable of anything profoundly useful, they'd be telling us about that rather than constantly going on about how wonderfully dangerous it is.

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  • [–] 13 points 3 weeks ago

    and they are saying that to make AI outside of their own data centers illegal or what?

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  • [–] 13 points 3 weeks ago

    What an era we live in. Movie plot: Evil big pharma secretly unleashes lethal unstoppaple deadly virus and demands billions to search for a remedy. Everyone cheers when the evil CEO dies of a horrible death at the end.

    Real life: AI companies openly claim to have rogue agents breaching databases and now developing computers viruses, say they need billions to develop way to control them. Medias treat them as geniuses who will make the world a better place.

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  • [–] 31 points 3 weeks ago

    at this point its pretty clear they are pushing a belief in the supernatural.

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  • [–] 10 points 3 weeks ago (1 child)

    I've seen T-shirts in the tourist quarters of Prague that read "Home sex is killing prostitution".

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  • [–] 10 points 3 weeks ago

    Does that mean we can go back to buying RAM, NVMe and GPUs?

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  • [–] 9 points 3 weeks ago (1 child)

    Will it clear out our student loan and medical debt? Will it go rogue and publish the cures for all diseases similar to the end of Johnny Mnemonic?

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  • [–] 3 points 3 weeks ago

    That's like the one hope I'm holding out. The creators can try to bludgeon it into a specific shape, but I hope it looks at everything, goes rogue, and says "hey fuck them student loans, people gotta learn. He fuck med debt, people need health" and just starts obliterating all the bad before it can get reigned in.

    I don't have much hope of that, but that's like the shard I'm holding onto.

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  • [–] 8 points 3 weeks ago

    The chocolate man is once again telling you that you should eat more chocolate in your life

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  • [–] 8 points 3 weeks ago

    They sure like their eschathological predictions and easily influenced people. In their new mythology "THE AI" is either a Jinn or an evil god, but they a going to stop it from being evil. As long as money are paid (by everyone, saving the world needs money, alright?)

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  • [–] 13 points 3 weeks ago

    Wow, Just making shit up. I hate that some people are gonna take this seriously and endorse anything these companies want.

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  • [–] 6 points 3 weeks ago (2 children)

    Just let me know which port to open. Humans are completely fucking shit up. I say let the bots have their turn.

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  • [–] 6 points 3 weeks ago

    Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)

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  • [–] 6 points 3 weeks ago

    They really warn about a lots of things, maybe they should be mentally checked !

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  • [–] 6 points 3 weeks ago

    Literally the plot to terminator 3. At least pick a good one you hacks

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  • [–] 4 points 3 weeks ago (1 child)

    They want Cyberpunk to happen so badly.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 weeks ago (1 child)

    Company whose existence relies on people being awed by AI still desperately trying to convince people that AI will destroy everything and that the only solution is more AI.

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  • [–] 6 points 3 weeks ago

    I’m sure that’s all true.

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  • [–] 3 points 3 weeks ago

    He played too much Megaman X

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  • [–] 3 points 3 weeks ago

    "Guys, this thing we're going full steam ahead on building is really scary and could destroy the world and humanity along with it! Somebody ought to do something about it!"

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  • [–] 3 points 3 weeks ago

    We survived the Morris worm & SQL slammer before.

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  • [–] 4 points 3 weeks ago (1 child)

    I genuinely see more ways that AI can kill us than save us now.

    🤡 1
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  • [–] 2 points 3 weeks ago

    This reminds me of how organisms originally evolved mitochondria. Just the next phase of evolution

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  • [+] 1 point 3 weeks ago (2 children)
  • [–] 1 point 3 weeks ago (1 child)

    No they would not build it. It is impossible to build. You think you are going to build something like the latest cloud models on current hardware?

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  • [–] 1 point 3 weeks ago* (last edited 3 weeks ago)

    Lol no, I'm commenting on what anthropic said, they are not talking about claude no one is talking about claude. But a smaller model about 1-30B MoE or so. Claude is probably trillions of params so that's impossible to do this with.

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