Believing these apps will succeed is based on an assumption along the lines of LLMs being able to produce quality code at 100x the speed of a competent human engineer. Maybe they can produce slop that fast, but using LLMs in a disciplined fashion to produce a quality product usually means LLMs are only providing a modest productivity boost in my experience.

It’s not realistic that these apps are anything but slop given the timeframe and scope spanning multiple complex apps that each took a decade or more to develop.

In my 20+ years of experience as a software engineer, I’ve never seen a successful project that hastily pumped out a massive pile of buggy code and then went back and fixed all of the problems later without doing a complete rewrite. You have to build incrementally and bake in quality every step of the way. LLMs may make the process a little faster, but the same rules still apply.

A poorly built codebase will always eventually collapse under its own weight. What I anticipate is that they’ll play whack-a-mole for a while and then give up. If they were targeting a small subset of one app’s features over a timeframe of months, I might believe it, but several massive apps all at once and it will all be done weeks from now? Stop bullshitting yourselves.