What exactly do you think "bigot' and "transphobic" mean? Because we should treat trans people as if they are their assigned gender at birth is a fair approximation for what I and others mean by the latter, and ideas that judge people by trivial characteristics is a fair approximation for the former.
Let's focus on transphobia and Rob Sand. A few more recent links:
https://littlevillagemag.com/rob-sand-addresses-students-iowa-city/
Your claim is that trans voters are with their activism driving a wedge betwren thrmselves and potential allies. Sand certainly seems like a good example, with his "no sports even after HRT" position, which i hope you can see is tanamount to a choice for trans athletes between being their true gender and playing sports, even if you want to quibble over the "transphobia" .label.
What's interedting is that nobody in Iowa seems to accuse.Sand of being transphobic. The people on the ground greeted his comments with silence and one shout of "coward", and at least one letter to the editor which didnt include any call to not vote for him. This surely seems llike a strong example... Except that the trans reaction seems to be a pretty universal "mild.transphobia is still an improvememt."
You also.mentioned Gavin Newsom, onetime plausible 2028 POTUS candidate before his transphobic self-own. If you think that mild transphobia would be where it stopped, why did he cancel a LGBTQ healrh budget?
Or, why does he oppose the wealth tax?
https://calmatters.org/politics/2026/10/newsom-tax-propositions-november-election/
Why did he veto a law that would have protected doctors from being dragged to Texas for daring to provide gender affirming care to ex-texans?
As he did a rule to ensure trans folk on HRT can stock up?