Probably his largest scoped game was Metal Gear Solid V, and not only would I be shocked if the hundreds of millions of dollars it brought in at launch (in 2015 dollars/budgets) wasn't profitable, but a lot of that development effort went into the Fox engine. That engine was intended to be used for many Konami games going forward, and even during the way Konami mostly pulled out of video games in the years that followed, they still used it in the one recurring soccer game they put out every year.
I think what's changed is that it's no longer a good fit for Sony to lock up exclusives under the pretense that it's going to grow their audience. Remember how poorly Square Enix did with the same strategy for Rebirth? I don't think that means people aren't into purchasing Final Fantasy, seeing how well that game did on PC after the fact. I think you'd be crazy to expect Revelation to flop. And I think the math on Kojima's success changes substantially when it's allowed to be multiplatform, which Sony isn't interested in right now.
And I think Sharma's job is to make someone else want to buy Xbox off of Microsoft's hands, so locking in a Kojima game makes the brand seem more valuable without the long-term problem of having to pay for the next Kojima game, since they got this one for pennies on the dollar.