And yet, so many people had their retirement totally boned by the surprise collapse. A looooot of people missed the signs of 2007 as they turned into 2008. It wasn't some clear sign that everyone talked about. Things just felt off and wobbly.

I dunno, man. I've been hearing about the bubble popping for half as long as LLMs have been in popular use. At least 18 months, almost up to 2 years of bubble doomerism for something that's only been out and really in common use for 3 and a half years or so. To me, that's closer to the sky is falling doomers that at every year is an economic collapse. Say it 20 years in a row and you'll get a hit eventually. It's not skill or accuracy, it's simply statistics.