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Oil prices are going down! (discuss.online)
submitted 4 months ago by to c/politicalmemes@lemmy.world
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[–] 5 points 4 months ago (2 children)

I keep thinking about this. Im not an expert on geopolitics, but I know a lot about manufacturing and shipping. How much infrastructure has been damaged/destroyed in the Persian gulf this year? Specialized industrial machinery isn't found on the shelf at the middle east version of Grainger, the lead times on things like large valves can be a year.

If trump and bibi and the ayatolla all fell in love tomorrow and called the whole thing off while moving to a ranch in montana to raise horses and roses as a throuple, it would still be multiple years before that stuff came back online.

So my wackadoodle conspiracy theory is that the US president is a plant from the environmentalists who will force the US to go to renewable energy by making oil too expensive to burn.

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  • [–] 3 points 4 months ago (1 child)

    You are exactly right. The lead time on most industrial equipment, especially that specialized for the oil industry, is going to be multiple months. Possibly longer considering the sudden demand spike as everyone in the region is trying to rebuild at the same time.

    That is not even counting the logistics nightmare it will be to get the continuous floe of supertanker traffic reorganized and restarted. The full capacity of the Strait relies on traffic entering and exiting in a predictable constant manner which will also take months to re-establish, since tankers are scattered all over the world now.

    Its ok though, this is a moot point as once again Israel has predictably broken the ceasefire almost immediately, and Iran has cancelled all talks and plans to reopen the strait because of it.

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  • [–] 1 point 4 months ago

    Logistics nightmare

    WARNING: PUI You'll have that in two directions too. You'll have to find enough ships to carry materials and parts in, and there will probably be tankers waiting, complicating matters. (I don't know how ship traffic works.) And those boats will be underway for months. Everything takes months. And it all piles up.

    Two possible silver linings:

    1.) New refinery equipment may be more efficient, and safer.

    2.) There is a very clear and inexpensive way to help reduce the impact of this mess, and it's as easy as laying glass in the sun.

    Don't pay attention to me. Im just a random guy on the Internet who's spent a bit of time around container traffic and a lot of time in warehouses.

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