And even if Iran changed their minds, it's not like the mines will just disappear

What incentive do they have at this point to return to the old status quo?

If the US fucks off, then Iran is left in a powerful negotiation position. They could use this incident to help normalize relations with other gulf states by pointing out how the US and Israel started the fight, then left them all high and dry. They could make non-agression and safe passage deals with the gulf states as well as exhert real pressure against the normalization of relations with Israel.

EDIT:

Less than a day later...

Long term it's better for Iran if stuff keeps flowing through and nobody moves away or pipelines around the Strait.

Before that was just economically infeasible, but now it's being shown as a massive vulnerability and there's no going back.

Unless Iran can make it look so expensive by comparison again.

Exactly! In for a penny, in for a pound. Iran will likely punish their neighbors who've been hosting US bases further before a ceasefire.

And just like that...

Time will show. There are some shitheads, such as Nick Fuentes, who have publicly disavowed Trump, and even Alex Jones is having a hard time defending Trump these days. Defection are happening, but any long term effect will probably be seen via a slow trickle and not a sudden drop in approval rating.

The truth is, most people don't stay up to date on the news, so while the base probably won't notice that the current Trump talking points are inconsistent at best, come a year or two and they will probably notice that they are objectively worse off after Trump decided to spend billions on a war with Iran for dubious benefits. We will never see a point of "That's it, fuck you!" on xitter. Suddenly the support will lose critical mass and fade into the background just like the teaparty did.

I'm cautiously optimistic stemming from the fact that ideologies based on hate never succeed in the long run. They either fizzle out, eat themselves, or on rare occasions implode spectacularly.

Trump has also surrounded himself with yes-men, just like this Austrian corporal once did. While Hitler certainly had a loyal staff, they were far from competent; Göhring thought he could bomb UK i to submission. And the rest of the staff were more focused on licking rectoplasm than facing reality.

I think that most Trump voters support isolationism symbolically. They want a leader who prioritizes them rather than perceived others, but they don't actually have a strong opinion about specific foreign policies per se. Attacking Iran does challenge that symbolism, but in the absence of direct effects on their own lives, their trust in Trump's established "America first" reputation will go a long way.

Some of the more Libertarian ones are rallying around Thomas Massie. He seems like one of the few American politicians who are actually somewhat honest.

Going by the polls, roughly one in ten or perhaps more Americans have changed their mind about him already. They're mostly independents, but he has also lost most of the literal actual Hitler-hailing nazis, which is a serious blow to his people power.

That's why I said "conventional", which nukes aren't

Its not quite accurate to say bombing alone, yhe only condition Japan had when they tried to surrender before the bombs was the emporer, and that would have gone away as the Soviets got closer.

That situation was different though. Japan was 100% getting invaded and they knew that when the bombs were dropped. Maybe not right away, in the very immediate term. Iran does not believe the US will execute a proper invasion as it has not been credibly threatened. If Iran believed that invasion was imminent, then the calculus would be different.

The Japanese fascists didn't give a shit about the people getting nuked. If they did they would have started the war in the first place. The most the nukes gave them was an excuse, they could pretend that's why they surrendered to make themselves look better. The only thing they cared about was their own skin. The reason they didn't want to submit to unconditional surrender was because they didn't want to hang.

The desperate hope that they had been hanging on to was that they could negotiate with the USSR to mediate the surrender (in fact, the USSR was just buying time as they moved troops to attack). This hope was prolonged because Truman pulled out of a joint statement with the USSR calling for surrender, and the reason he did that was because he wanted an opportunity to use the bomb.

The USSR declaring war is the thing that removed the last hope the Japanese fascists had for a conditional surrender. They were then allowed to save face by claiming they cared so much about sparing the people from nukes. Because really the only reason the US was so insistant on unconditional surrender in the first place was because it would sound more badass in the papers and help Truman get reelected. Dropping the nukes also served as a way to justify the costs of the program, and to intimidate the Soviets.

The projections for a possible invasion were all invented after the war as a talking point. No such projection existed during the war, nor was any invasion planned.