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It's the dream (piefed.cdn.blahaj.zone)
submitted 9 months ago by to c/memes@sopuli.xyz
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[–] 10 points 9 months ago (7 children)

1 in 7 chance [if you sample from infinite years]

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  • [–] 5 points 9 months ago (5 children)

    That can't be correct, can it?

    They would have a rotating 7 year schedule, but it's messed up by leap years. You have the seven calendars you're thinking of and 1-2 leap year calendars mixed into those 7 years. It would have to be somewhere between 1 in 8 and 1 in 9, wouldn't it?

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  • [–] 4 points 9 months ago (1 child)

    I think it's more like 303/2800 chance.

    There are 97 leap days every 400 years, then the calendar repeats. So you have 303/400 chance of not having a leap year, and in those years, you get a 1/7 chance of having this calendar. Thus 303/2800.

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago

    This is counterintuitive to me, because 303/2800 is .108, which is between 1/9 and 1/10. But 97 out of 400 is less than 1 out of 4, so it shouldn't be able to interfere more than twice in a 7 year cycle, on average. But your math looks correct. I must be missing something.

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  • [–] 1 point 9 months ago (2 children)

    No, since there's only 7 different possibilities, then over a sufficiently large sample, the probabilities would all still balance out to 1 in 7.

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