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Are we on the Edge of Collapse? Impressive Data from a Recalibration of Limits of Growth (senecaeffect.substack.com)
submitted 11 months ago by to c/collapse@lemmy.zip
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"The start of the collapse of the industrial production (here calculated in per capita terms) was supposed to be at some moment between 2010 and 2020. A little too early, because we passed that moment. But that calculation was made more than 50 years ago, and it is legitimate to think that it needs some readjustments. That was what Nebel et al did in a recent paper; they recalibrated the same model (word3) on the basis of the available real-world data. And here is their result. "

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[–] 5 points 11 months ago (3 children)

The model is fine but the conclusions are odd. Population decline means a food surplus. A global population decline represents an improvement in the standard of living for everyone but those who live on the backs of the workers.

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  • [–] 9 points 11 months ago (1 child)

    Population decline means a food surplus.

    Not necessarily. You're assuming the agricultural areas will remain the same, id suggest if theres a population decline it's because some system has broken down, not becase humans have come to their senses.

    As to an improveing living atandards for everyone, i also don't think that will occur, we allow the wealthy to accumate most increases now, presumably they'll want to maintain that growth for themselves, so well need to sacrifice more to allow that to happen. We don't share shit now, so why would we in any futire?

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  • [–] 1 point 11 months ago

    id suggest if theres a population decline it's because some system has broken down

    Modern population decline in the western world is because automation means people don't need 10 kids to do farm work so they can survive. The population decline is because the system is working so well we don't need as many people to survive.

    As to an improveing living atandards for everyone, i also don't think that will occur, we allow the wealthy to accumate most increases now,

    A decrease in the number of workers makes each worker more valuable. This has been seen in history after the Black Plague and more recently after the depopulation of Europe from WW2 of the most productive workers resulted in an economic boom.

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  • [–] 1 point 11 months ago*

    The study points out that resources decline, causing industrial production to decline, causing food production to decline causing population to decline.

    So food production loss triggers the population loss.

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